Nepal is ranked 99th among the 196 countries we publish in terms of GDP in 2020, with a total of $33,983 million. Nepal’s GDP fell by $203 million in absolute terms in 2019 compared to the previous year.
Why is Nepal’s GDP so low?
A number of issues, including as increasing political instability, problems in the industrial environment, low private sector investment, the energy crisis, and banks’ limited loan expansion, have slowed the growth of industrial production, resulting in sluggish non-agriculture economic activities.
What is India’s GDP forecast for 2021?
In its second advance estimates of national accounts released on Monday, the National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted the country’s growth for 2021-22 at 8.9%, slightly lower than the 9.2% estimated in its first advance estimates released in January.
Furthermore, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reduced its estimates of GDP contraction for the coronavirus pandemic-affected last fiscal year (2020-21) to 6.6 percent. The previous projection was for a 7.3% decrease.
In April-June 2020, the Indian economy contracted 23.8 percent, and in July-September 2020, it contracted 6.6 percent.
“While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in Q3 FY2022, the NSO’s initial estimates are far below our expectations (6.2 percent for GDP), with a marginal increase in manufacturing and a contraction in construction that is surprising given the heavy rains in the southern states,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 38.22 trillion in Q3 of 2021-22, up from Rs 36.26 trillion in Q3 of 2020-21, indicating an increase of 5.4 percent,” according to an official release.
According to the announcement, real GDP (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is expected to reach Rs 147.72 trillion in 2021-22, up from Rs 135.58 trillion in the first updated estimate announced on January 31, 2022.
GDP growth is expected to be 8.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
In terms of value, GDP in October-December 2021-22 was Rs 38,22,159 crore, up from Rs 36,22,220 crore in the same period of 2020-21.
According to NSO data, the manufacturing sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth remained nearly steady at 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22, compared to 8.4 percent a year ago.
GVA growth in the farm sector was weak in the third quarter, at 2.6 percent, compared to 4.1 percent a year before.
GVA in the construction sector decreased by 2.8%, compared to 6.6% rise a year ago.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of current fiscal year, compared to 1.5 percent growth the previous year.
Similarly, trade, hotel, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services expanded by 6.1 percent, compared to a decline of 10.1 percent a year ago.
In Q3 FY22, financial, real estate, and professional services growth was 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in Q3 FY21.
During the quarter under examination, public administration, defense, and other services expanded by 16.8%, compared to a decrease of 2.9 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grew by 4% between October and December of 2021.
“India’s GDP growth for Q3FY22 was a touch lower than our forecast of 5.7 percent, as the manufacturing sector grew slowly and the construction industry experienced unanticipated de-growth.” We have, however, decisively emerged from the pandemic recession, with all sectors of the economy showing signs of recovery.
“Going ahead, unlock trade will help growth in Q4FY22, as most governments have eliminated pandemic-related limitations, but weak rural demand and geopolitical shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impair global growth and supply chains.” The impending pass-through of higher oil and gas costs could affect domestic demand mood, according to Elara Capital economist Garima Kapoor.
“Strong growth in the services sector and a pick-up in private final consumption expenditure drove India’s real GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q3.” While agriculture’s growth slowed in Q3, the construction sector’s growth became negative.
“On the plus side, actual expenditure levels in both the private and public sectors are greater than they were before the pandemic.
“Given the encouraging trends in government revenues and spending until January 2022, as well as the upward revision in the nominal GDP growth rate for FY22, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for FY22 may come out better than what the (federal) budget projected,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist, L&T Financial Holdings.
“The growth number is pretty disappointing,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist of Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Securities, said, citing weaker rural consumer demand and investments as reasons.
After crude prices soared beyond $100 a barrel, India, which imports virtually all of its oil, might face a wider trade imbalance, a weaker rupee, and greater inflation, with a knock to GDP considered as the main concern.
“We believe the fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will remain, given the geopolitical volatility and crude oil prices,” Hajra added.
According to Nomura, a 10% increase in oil prices would shave 0.2 percentage points off India’s GDP growth while adding 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to retail inflation.
Widening sanctions against Russia are likely to have a ripple impact on India, according to Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
“We see a 20-30 basis point downside risk to our base predictions,” she said. For the time being, HDFC expects the GDP to rise 8.2% in the coming fiscal year.
What is the complete form of GDP?
The total monetary or market worth of all finished goods and services produced inside a country’s borders in a certain time period is known as GDP. It serves as a comprehensive scorecard of a country’s economic health because it is a wide measure of entire domestic production.
In Nepal, who is poor?
Over a five-year period, Nepal has made significant success in lowering the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) from 30.1 percent (NMICS 2014) to 17.4 percent (NMICS 2019). This latest MPI Report maintains that Nepal is on track to meet its commitments to Agenda 2030 and achieve its goal of a “Prosperous Nepal – Happy Nepali.” In 2019, 17.4 percent of Nepalis slightly under five million people are multidimensionally poor, with an MPI of 0.074. Housing materials, clean cooking fuel, years of schooling, assets, and nutrition are the areas where the greatest number of individuals are lacking. Years of schooling and nutritional deprivation contribute the most to Nepal’s persistent multidimensional poverty, according to the indicator weights.
In a global comparison, Nepal’s 2019 MPI of 0.074 is lower than Bangladesh’s 2019 MPI of 0.104, which is likewise based on an NMICS survey, and all South Asian countries save the Maldives. Nepal’s MPI is comparable to Botswana’s (2015-16), one of the least impoverished countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, Nicaragua’s (2011-12) in Latin America, and Kiribati’s (2018-19 NMICS) in East Asia and Pacific.
The Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and Nepal’s Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) collaborated on the MPI Report 2021, with funding from UNICEF and UNDP Nepal.
The study is based on the Nepal Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey Report (NMICS) 2019 and covers a portion of the current 15th Plan, Sustainable Development Goals: Status and Roadmap 2016-2030 Report, and Nepal Constitution 2015.
What accounts for India’s low GDP?
There are two things that stand out. The Indian economy began to revive in March 2013 more than a year before the current government took office after a period of contraction following the Global Financial Crisis.
But, more importantly, since the third quarter of 2016-17 (October to December), this recovery has transformed into a secular slowing of growth. While the RBI did not declare so, many experts believe the government’s move to demonetise 86 percent of India’s currency overnight on November 8, 2016, was the catalyst that sent the country’s GDP into a tailspin.
The GDP growth rate steadily fell from over 8% in FY17 to around 4% in FY20, just before Covid-19 hit the country, as the ripples of demonetisation and a poorly designed and hastily implemented Goods and Services Tax (GST) spread through an economy already struggling with massive bad loans in the banking system.
PM Modi voiced hope in January 2020, when GDP growth fell to a 42-year low (in terms of nominal GDP), saying: “The Indian economy’s high absorbent capacity demonstrates the strength of the country’s foundations and its ability to recover.”
The foundations of the Indian economy were already weak in January last year well before the outbreak as an examination of key factors shows. For example, in the recent past (Chart 2), India’s GDP growth trend mirrored an exponential development pattern “Even before Covid-19 came the market, there was a “inverted V.”
Who created the GDP?
Simon Kuznets, the originator of GDP, was confident that his metric had nothing to do with happiness. However, we frequently mix up the two. GNP has been the go-to metric for the global elite for the past seven decades. Fast growth, as measured by GDP, has long been regarded as a measure of achievement in and of itself, rather than as a means to an end, regardless of how the benefits of that growth are spent or distributed. If something has to give in order to get GDP growing, whether it’s clean air, public services, or fair opportunity, so be it.
What is the formula for calculating GDP?
GDP is thus defined as GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports, or GDP = C + I + G + NX, where consumption (C) refers to private-consumption expenditures by households and nonprofit organizations, investment (I) refers to business expenditures, and net exports (NX) refers to net exports.