- The BEA’s interactive data tool has historical time series for these estimations.
- Register for BEA’s data application programming interface to have access to BEA data (API).
- Refer to our monthly online publication, the Survey of Current Business, for further information on BEA statistics.
- NIPA Handbook: U.S. National Income and Product Accounts Concepts and Methods
The value of the products and services generated by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production is known as gross domestic product (GDP) or value added. Personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment are all included in GDP.
The sum of earnings earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP is known as gross domestic income (GDI). GDP and GDI are theoretically equivalent in national economic accounting. GDP and GDI differ in practice because they are calculated using mostly independent source data.
The value of products and services generated by a country’s economy is referred to as gross output. Industry sales or receipts, comprising sales to ultimate consumers (GDP) and sales to other industries, are mostly used to calculate it (intermediate inputs).
Estimates in current dollars are evaluated using the prices in effect at the time the transactions took place, or at “market value.” Also known as “current-price estimates” or “nominal estimates.”
Real values are estimates that have been corrected for inflation, i.e., estimates that do not include the effects of price fluctuations.
The price of final products and services purchased by U.S. residents is measured by the gross domestic purchases price index.
The price of goods and services purchased by, or on behalf of, “persons” is measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index.
Personal income is the money earned by, or on behalf of, all people from a variety of sources: working as a worker, owning a property or business, holding financial assets, and receiving money from the government or businesses in the form of transfers. It comprises income from both domestic and international sources. It excludes capital gains and losses, both realized and unrealized.
Individuals’ disposable personal income is the money they have available to spend or save. It’s the difference between personal income and personal current taxes.
The sum of personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments is known as personal outlays.
Personal savings is personal income minus personal expenses and current taxes.
Personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income is referred to as the personal saving rate.
Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption (CCAdj) adjustment in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) is a measure of net income before income taxes that is compatible with the value of goods and services represented in GDP. The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that translate inventory withdrawals and fixed asset depreciation recorded on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the national income and product accounts’ current-cost economic measures. Profits for domestic industries indicate profits for all firms operating within the United States’ geographic limits. The difference between earnings collected from ROW and profits given to ROW is the rest-of-the-world (ROW) component of profits.
Annual rates vs. quarterly rates Unless otherwise stated, quarterly seasonally adjusted figures are provided at yearly rates. For BEA’s featured, seasonally adjusted metrics, this standard is utilized to make comparisons with relevant and historical data easier. See the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at yearly rates?” for more information. Only quarterly rates are used to express non-seasonally adjusted numbers.
Changes in percentage. Unless otherwise noted, percent changes in quarterly seasonally adjusted figures are displayed at annual rates. The FAQs “How is average annual growth calculated?” and “Why does BEA publish percent changes in quarterly series at annual rates?” provide more information. Quarterly not seasonally adjusted values are compared to the same quarter a year ago to calculate percent changes. All reported percentage changes are based on unrounded data.
Quarters and calendar years Annual and quarterly data are presented on a calendar basis unless otherwise stated.
Quantities and prices are important. Quantities, sometimes known as “real” volume measures, and prices are stated as index numbers with a reference year of 100. (currently 2012). A Fisher-chained weighted method that integrates weights from two consecutive eras is used to construct quantity and price indexes (quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). Refer to Chapter 4: Estimating Methods in the NIPA Handbook for more information on how to calculate quantity and price indices.
The quantity index is multiplied by the current dollar value in the reference year (2012), then divided by 100 to get chained-dollar values. The principle of percent changes determined from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels is the same; any variations are due to rounding. Because the relative weights for a specific period differ from those of the reference year, chained-dollar values are not additive. A “residual” line illustrates the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate in tables that present chained-dollar values.
BEA releases three vintages of the current quarterly GDP estimate: “Advance” estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available.
The table below displays, without respect to sign, the average adjustments to quarterly percent increases in real GDP between different estimate vintages.
In late July, annual and complete updates are usually provided. Annual updates typically cover at least the previous five calendar years (and their accompanying quarters) and include newly available significant annual source data as well as some adjustments in techniques and definitions to improve the accounts. At around 5-year intervals, comprehensive (or benchmark) upgrades are performed, which include important periodic source data as well as major conceptual enhancements.
Because data on domestic profits and net interest of domestic industries are not available, advance current quarterly estimates of GDI and corporate profits are not given, unlike GDP. These data are not accessible until the third estimate for fourth quarter estimates.
The third estimate of GDP includes estimates of GDP by industry and gross output.
What is the latest GDP forecast for the year 2021?
In addition to updated fourth-quarter projections, today’s announcement includes revised third-quarter 2021 wages and salaries, personal taxes, and government social insurance contributions, all based on new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and wages climbed by $306.8 billion in the third quarter, up $27.7 billion from the previous estimate. With the addition of this new statistics, real gross domestic income is now anticipated to have climbed 6.4 percent in the third quarter, a 0.6 percentage point gain over the prior estimate.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed by 5.7 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major components of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (led by information processing equipment) and intellectual property products (led by software as well as research and development) partially offset a decrease in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.1 percent (revised), or $2.10 trillion, to $23.00 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous forecast, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, unchanged from the last estimate, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent. With food and energy prices excluded, the PCE price index grew 3.3 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Real GDP grew 5.6 (revised) percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a fall of 2.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 5.6 percent (revised), compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index grew 5.5 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, versus a 1.2 percent increase. The PCE price index grew 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
What is the Indian GDP report?
According to the estimate, real GDP will be roughly Rs 2.35 lakh crore higher / 1.6 percent higher than FY20’s real GDP of Rs 145.69 lakh crore. Private consumption has remained below pre-pandemic levels, according to the report, and the rebound in domestic economic activity has yet to be broad-based.
What is India’s current GDP in 2021?
In its second advance estimates of national accounts released on Monday, the National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted the country’s growth for 2021-22 at 8.9%, slightly lower than the 9.2% estimated in its first advance estimates released in January.
Furthermore, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reduced its estimates of GDP contraction for the coronavirus pandemic-affected last fiscal year (2020-21) to 6.6 percent. The previous projection was for a 7.3% decrease.
In April-June 2020, the Indian economy contracted 23.8 percent, and in July-September 2020, it contracted 6.6 percent.
“While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in Q3 FY2022, the NSO’s initial estimates are far below our expectations (6.2 percent for GDP), with a marginal increase in manufacturing and a contraction in construction that is surprising given the heavy rains in the southern states,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 38.22 trillion in Q3 of 2021-22, up from Rs 36.26 trillion in Q3 of 2020-21, indicating an increase of 5.4 percent,” according to an official release.
According to the announcement, real GDP (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is expected to reach Rs 147.72 trillion in 2021-22, up from Rs 135.58 trillion in the first updated estimate announced on January 31, 2022.
GDP growth is expected to be 8.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
In terms of value, GDP in October-December 2021-22 was Rs 38,22,159 crore, up from Rs 36,22,220 crore in the same period of 2020-21.
According to NSO data, the manufacturing sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth remained nearly steady at 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22, compared to 8.4 percent a year ago.
GVA growth in the farm sector was weak in the third quarter, at 2.6 percent, compared to 4.1 percent a year before.
GVA in the construction sector decreased by 2.8%, compared to 6.6% rise a year ago.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of current fiscal year, compared to 1.5 percent growth the previous year.
Similarly, trade, hotel, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services expanded by 6.1 percent, compared to a decline of 10.1 percent a year ago.
In Q3 FY22, financial, real estate, and professional services growth was 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in Q3 FY21.
During the quarter under examination, public administration, defense, and other services expanded by 16.8%, compared to a decrease of 2.9 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grew by 4% between October and December of 2021.
“India’s GDP growth for Q3FY22 was a touch lower than our forecast of 5.7 percent, as the manufacturing sector grew slowly and the construction industry experienced unanticipated de-growth.” We have, however, decisively emerged from the pandemic recession, with all sectors of the economy showing signs of recovery.
“Going ahead, unlock trade will help growth in Q4FY22, as most governments have eliminated pandemic-related limitations, but weak rural demand and geopolitical shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impair global growth and supply chains.” The impending pass-through of higher oil and gas costs could affect domestic demand mood, according to Elara Capital economist Garima Kapoor.
“Strong growth in the services sector and a pick-up in private final consumption expenditure drove India’s real GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q3.” While agriculture’s growth slowed in Q3, the construction sector’s growth became negative.
“On the plus side, actual expenditure levels in both the private and public sectors are greater than they were before the pandemic.
“Given the encouraging trends in government revenues and spending until January 2022, as well as the upward revision in the nominal GDP growth rate for FY22, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for FY22 may come out better than what the (federal) budget projected,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist, L&T Financial Holdings.
“The growth number is pretty disappointing,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist of Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Securities, said, citing weaker rural consumer demand and investments as reasons.
After crude prices soared beyond $100 a barrel, India, which imports virtually all of its oil, might face a wider trade imbalance, a weaker rupee, and greater inflation, with a knock to GDP considered as the main concern.
“We believe the fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will remain, given the geopolitical volatility and crude oil prices,” Hajra added.
According to Nomura, a 10% increase in oil prices would shave 0.2 percentage points off India’s GDP growth while adding 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to retail inflation.
Widening sanctions against Russia are likely to have a ripple impact on India, according to Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
“We see a 20-30 basis point downside risk to our base predictions,” she said. For the time being, HDFC expects the GDP to rise 8.2% in the coming fiscal year.
What exactly is GDP and what does it mean?
GDP quantifies the monetary worth of final goods and services produced in a country over a specific period of time, i.e. those that are purchased by the end user (say a quarter or a year). It is a metric that measures all of the output produced within a country’s borders.
What is our current GDP?
- As of 2017, India’s nominal (current) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is $2,650,725,335,364 (USD).
- In 2017, India’s real GDP (constant, inflation-adjusted) was $2,660,371,703,953.
- In 2017, the GDP Growth Rate was 6.68 percent, a change of 177,938,082,996 US dollars from 2016, when Real GDP was $2,482,433,620,957.
- In 2017, India’s GDP per capita (with a population of 1,338,676,785 people) was $1,987, up $113 from 2016’s $1,874; this indicates a 6.0 percent increase in GDP per capita.
Which country has the highest GDP in 2021?
The United States and China would rank first and second in both methodology’ gdp rankings by 2021. The nominal gap between the US and China is narrowing, since China’s gdp growth rate of 8.02 percent in 2021 is higher than the US’s 5.97 percent. In nominal terms, the United States will be $6 trillion ahead of China in 2021. On a per-person basis, China surpassed the United States in 2017 and is now ahead by $4 trillion, with the gap widening. On a per capita basis, China will continue to be the world’s greatest economy for the next few decades, since the US, which is rated second, grows slowly and India, which is placed third, lags far behind.
In terms of nominal GDP, the top ten would remain same. Iran has surpassed the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia has surpassed Turkey, and Switzerland has surpassed Switzerland on the top 20 list. South Africa’s economic ranking would rise eight places in the top 50, while Egypt would drop four places.
There would be no change in the top 10 list in the ppp ranking. Taiwan overtaking Australia is another change in the top 20. Ireland will move up three places in the top 50.
In 2021, all of the economies in the top 50 will grow at a positive rate. With a 14.04 percent growth rate, Ireland is the fastest-growing economy, followed by Chile (11.00 percent ). Thailand has the slowest growth rate, at 0.96 percent, followed by the UAE (2.24 percent) and Japan (2.36 percent ).
In nominal terms, the United States (1,5) appears on both lists of the top 10 GDP and GDP per capita. In terms of GDP and GDP per capita, Germany (4,17), Canada (9,15), Australia (13,9), the Netherlands (18,12), and Switzerland (20,3) are among the top twenty countries. In both rankings, the United States (2,8) is in the top 10, while Germany (5,18) and Taiwan (18,15) are in the top twenty.
What is India’s GDP in rupees?
The First Revised Estimate of GDP for 2019-20 is 145.69 lakh crore, while the Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices for 2020-21 is anticipated at 135.13 lakh crore. GDP growth is expected to be -7.3 percent in 2019-20. Nominal GDP, or GDP at current prices, is expected to reach 197.46 lakh crore in 2020-21, down from the First Revised Estimates of 203.51 lakh crore in 2019-20, indicating a 3.0% decrease.
GVA (Gross Value Added), GNI (Gross National Income), and NNI (Net National Income) are anticipated to be 124.53 lakh crore, 133.85 lakh crore, and 117.46 lakh crore, respectively, at constant prices. These amounts are 179.15 lakh crore, 195.61 lakh crore, and 174.62 lakh crore, respectively, at current prices.
Since 2004-05, figures have been accessible in the new series. Since 2004-05, India’s GDP has increased by 2.47 times.
At current prices, India’s nominal GDP in 2021 is predicted to be $3,050 billion, according to the IMF World Economic Outlook (April – 2021). According to this forecast, India will be the world’s sixth largest economy, down from fifth place in 2019. India was ranked 5th highest in 2019 and 17th lowest in 1991. India accounts for 3.25 percent of the global GDP. India’s economic share of the global economy has risen from 1.08 percent in 1993 to 3.27 percent in 2019.
After China and Japan, India is the third-largest Asian country. India accounts for roughly 9% of Asia’s overall GDP (nominal).
According to PPP, India’s GDP will be worth $10,207 billion in 2021, ranking third in the world behind the United States and China. India is responsible for 7.19 percent of global GDP (ppp). India accounts for nearly 16% of Asia’s overall GDP (PPP). India’s GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) is 3.35 times that of the country’s nominal GDP.
In nominal terms, the Indian economy surpassed the $1 billion barrier in 2007 and the $2 billion mark in 2014. In terms of purchasing power parity, India passed the one billion barrier in 1990. Since 1960, when the country’s GDP was 37 million dollars, estimates from the World Bank have been available. The best period for the Indian economy was 2002-19, when the country’s economy grew by 458 percent in 17 years.
What accounts for India’s high GDP?
India’s long-term prosperity has been fueled by an increasing share of investment and exports, with consumption playing a significant role. Productivity advances both in labor productivity and total factor productivity have also characterized growth.
How do you interpret GDP figures?
The real GDP growth rate has reached a six-year low of 5%. (see Chart 1). The real GDP growth rate is obtained by subtracting the inflation rate from the nominal GDP growth rate, which is the growth rate calculated in current prices. What’s more concerning is the slowdown in nominal GDP growth, which was forecast to be at 8% in Q1. To put things in perspective, the Union Budget, which was announced on July 5, forecasted nominal growth of 12%. The theory was that with nominal growth of 12% and inflation of 4%, real GDP would increase by 8%.