GDP, or gross domestic product, is one of the most commonly used terms. It is frequently mentioned in newspapers, on television news, and in government, central bank, and company publications. It has become widely accepted as a barometer of national and global economic health.
What does GDP mean in simple terms?
GDP quantifies the monetary worth of final goods and services produced in a country over a specific period of time, i.e. those that are purchased by the end user (say a quarter or a year). It is a metric that measures all of the output produced within a country’s borders.
What makes a country’s GDP good?
“In general, you would expect poorer countries to expand faster. “Once you’ve caught up with the frontier, the high-income countries, it’s more difficult to grow quickly,” Boal added. “We’re increasing at a rate of two to three percent faster than the population, which is a fantastic thing. That’s pretty much how things have gone over the last 20 years or so. That would be steady increase based on recent historical experience, which is healthy in that sense.”
4. GDP can be very high.
What are the methods for calculating GDP?
GDP is calculated by adding up the quantities of all commodities and services produced, multiplying them by their prices, and then adding them all up. GDP can be calculated using either the sum of what is purchased or the sum of what is generated in the economy. Consumption, investment, government, exports, and imports are the several types of demand.
In India, how is GDP calculated?
- The GDP of India is estimated using two methods: one based on economic activity (at factor cost) and the other based on expenditure (at market prices).
- The performance of eight distinct industries is evaluated using the factor cost technique.
- The expenditure-based method shows how different aspects of the economy, such as trade, investments, and personal consumption, are performing.
In 2021, what would India’s GDP be?
In its second advance estimates of national accounts released on Monday, the National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted the country’s growth for 2021-22 at 8.9%, slightly lower than the 9.2% estimated in its first advance estimates released in January.
Furthermore, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reduced its estimates of GDP contraction for the coronavirus pandemic-affected last fiscal year (2020-21) to 6.6 percent. The previous projection was for a 7.3% decrease.
In April-June 2020, the Indian economy contracted 23.8 percent, and in July-September 2020, it contracted 6.6 percent.
“While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in Q3 FY2022, the NSO’s initial estimates are far below our expectations (6.2 percent for GDP), with a marginal increase in manufacturing and a contraction in construction that is surprising given the heavy rains in the southern states,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 38.22 trillion in Q3 of 2021-22, up from Rs 36.26 trillion in Q3 of 2020-21, indicating an increase of 5.4 percent,” according to an official release.
According to the announcement, real GDP (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is expected to reach Rs 147.72 trillion in 2021-22, up from Rs 135.58 trillion in the first updated estimate announced on January 31, 2022.
GDP growth is expected to be 8.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
In terms of value, GDP in October-December 2021-22 was Rs 38,22,159 crore, up from Rs 36,22,220 crore in the same period of 2020-21.
According to NSO data, the manufacturing sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth remained nearly steady at 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22, compared to 8.4 percent a year ago.
GVA growth in the farm sector was weak in the third quarter, at 2.6 percent, compared to 4.1 percent a year before.
GVA in the construction sector decreased by 2.8%, compared to 6.6% rise a year ago.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of current fiscal year, compared to 1.5 percent growth the previous year.
Similarly, trade, hotel, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services expanded by 6.1 percent, compared to a decline of 10.1 percent a year ago.
In Q3 FY22, financial, real estate, and professional services growth was 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in Q3 FY21.
During the quarter under examination, public administration, defense, and other services expanded by 16.8%, compared to a decrease of 2.9 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grew by 4% between October and December of 2021.
“India’s GDP growth for Q3FY22 was a touch lower than our forecast of 5.7 percent, as the manufacturing sector grew slowly and the construction industry experienced unanticipated de-growth.” We have, however, decisively emerged from the pandemic recession, with all sectors of the economy showing signs of recovery.
“Going ahead, unlock trade will help growth in Q4FY22, as most governments have eliminated pandemic-related limitations, but weak rural demand and geopolitical shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impair global growth and supply chains.” The impending pass-through of higher oil and gas costs could affect domestic demand mood, according to Elara Capital economist Garima Kapoor.
“Strong growth in the services sector and a pick-up in private final consumption expenditure drove India’s real GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q3.” While agriculture’s growth slowed in Q3, the construction sector’s growth became negative.
“On the plus side, actual expenditure levels in both the private and public sectors are greater than they were before the pandemic.
“Given the encouraging trends in government revenues and spending until January 2022, as well as the upward revision in the nominal GDP growth rate for FY22, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for FY22 may come out better than what the (federal) budget projected,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist, L&T Financial Holdings.
“The growth number is pretty disappointing,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist of Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Securities, said, citing weaker rural consumer demand and investments as reasons.
After crude prices soared beyond $100 a barrel, India, which imports virtually all of its oil, might face a wider trade imbalance, a weaker rupee, and greater inflation, with a knock to GDP considered as the main concern.
“We believe the fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will remain, given the geopolitical volatility and crude oil prices,” Hajra added.
According to Nomura, a 10% increase in oil prices would shave 0.2 percentage points off India’s GDP growth while adding 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to retail inflation.
Widening sanctions against Russia are likely to have a ripple impact on India, according to Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
“We see a 20-30 basis point downside risk to our base predictions,” she said. For the time being, HDFC expects the GDP to rise 8.2% in the coming fiscal year.
What does a low GDP mean?
When GDP falls, the economy shrinks, which is terrible news for businesses and people. A recession is defined as a drop in GDP for two quarters in a row, which can result in pay freezes and job losses.
What are the three different types of GDP?
- The monetary worth of all finished goods and services produced inside a country during a certain period is known as the gross domestic product (GDP).
- GDP is a measure of a country’s economic health that is used to estimate its size and rate of growth.
- GDP can be computed in three different ways: expenditures, production, and income. To provide further information, it can be adjusted for inflation and population.
- Despite its shortcomings, GDP is an important tool for policymakers, investors, and corporations to use when making strategic decisions.
Who determines GDP?
Who is in charge of calculating GDP? The Bureau of Economic Analysis uses thousands of data points gathered by several federal agencies and certain commercial data collectors to estimate GDP. BEA is a non-profit, non-political statistical organization. On bea.gov, all of its data is available for free.
What are the three methods for calculating GDP?
The value added approach, the income approach (how much is earned as revenue on resources utilized to make items), and the expenditures approach can all be used to calculate GDP (how much is spent on stuff).