GDP, or gross domestic product, is one of the most commonly used terms. It is frequently mentioned in newspapers, on television news, and in government, central bank, and company publications. It has become widely accepted as a barometer of national and global economic health.
What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and how is it calculated?
Gross domestic product (GDP) equals private consumption + gross private investment + government investment + government spending + (exports Minus imports).
GDP is usually computed using international standards by the country’s official statistical agency. GDP is calculated in the United States by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of the Commerce Department. The System of National Accounts, compiled in 1993 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), is the international standard for estimating GDP.
What is our country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)?
From 1960 to 2020, India’s GDP averaged 658.35 USD billion, with a high of 2870.50 USD billion in 2019 and a low of 37.03 USD billion in 1960.
In India, how is GDP calculated?
- The GDP of India is estimated using two methods: one based on economic activity (at factor cost) and the other based on expenditure (at market prices).
- The performance of eight distinct industries is evaluated using the factor cost technique.
- The expenditure-based method shows how different aspects of the economy, such as trade, investments, and personal consumption, are performing.
What is an example of GDP?
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a metric that measures the worth of a country’s economic activities. GDP is the sum of the market values, or prices, of all final goods and services produced in an economy during a given time period. Within this seemingly basic concept, however, there are three key distinctions:
- GDP is a metric that measures the value of a country’s output in local currency.
- GDP attempts to capture all final commodities and services generated within a country, ensuring that the final monetary value of everything produced in that country is represented in the GDP.
- GDP is determined over a set time period, usually a year or quarter of a year.
Computing GDP
Let’s look at how to calculate GDP now that we know what it is. GDP is the monetary value of all the goods and services generated in an economy, as we all know. Consider Country B, which exclusively produces bananas and backrubs. In the first year, they produce 5 bananas for $1 each and 5 backrubs worth $6 each. This year’s GDP is (quantity of bananas X price of bananas) + (quantity of backrubs X price of backrubs), or (5 X $1) + (5 X $6) = $35 for the country. The equation grows longer as more commodities and services are created. For every good and service produced within the country, GDP = (quantity of A X price of A) + (quantity of B X price of B) + (quantity of whatever X price of whatever).
To compute GDP in the real world, the market values of many products and services must be calculated.
While GDP’s total output is essential, the breakdown of that output into the economy’s big structures is often just as important.
In general, macroeconomists utilize a set of categories to break down an economy into its key components; in this case, GDP is equal to the total of consumer spending, investment, government purchases, and net exports, as represented by the equation:
- The sum of household expenditures on durable commodities, nondurable items, and services is known as consumer spending, or C. Clothing, food, and health care are just a few examples.
- The sum of spending on capital equipment, inventories, and structures is referred to as investment (I).
- Machinery, unsold items, and homes are just a few examples.
- G stands for government spending, which is the total amount of money spent on products and services by all government agencies.
- Naval ships and government employee wages are two examples.
- Net exports, or NX, is the difference between foreigners’ spending on local goods and domestic residents’ expenditure on foreign goods.
- Net exports, to put it another way, is the difference between exports and imports.
GDP vs. GNP
GDP is just one technique to measure an economy’s overall output. Another technique is to calculate the Gross National Product, or GNP. As previously stated, GDP is the total value of all products and services generated in a country. GNP narrows the definition slightly: it is the total value of all goods and services generated by permanent residents of a country, regardless of where they are located. The important distinction between GDP and GNP is based on how production is counted by foreigners in a country vs nationals outside of that country. Output by foreigners within a country is counted in the GDP of that country, whereas production by nationals outside of that country is not. Production by foreigners within a country is not considered for GNP, while production by nationals from outside the country is. GNP, on the other hand, is the value of goods and services produced by citizens of a country, whereas GDP is the value of goods and services produced by a country’s citizens.
For example, in Country B (shown in ), nationals produce bananas while foreigners produce backrubs.
Figure 1 shows that Country B’s GDP in year one is (5 X $1) + (5 X $6) = $35.
Because the $30 from backrubs is added to the GNP of the immigrants’ home country, the GNP of country B is (5 X $1) = $5.
The distinction between GDP and GNP is theoretically significant, although it is rarely relevant in practice.
GDP and GNP are usually quite close together because the majority of production within a country is done by its own citizens.
Macroeconomists use GDP as a measure of a country’s total output in general.
Growth Rate of GDP
GDP is a great way to compare the economy at two different times in time. This comparison can then be used to calculate a country’s overall output growth rate.
Subtract 1 from the amount obtained by dividing the GDP for the first year by the GDP for the second year to arrive at the GDP growth rate.
This technique of calculating total output growth has an obvious flaw: both increases in the price of products produced and increases in the quantity of goods produced result in increases in GDP.
As a result, determining whether the volume of output is changing or the price of output is changing from the GDP growth rate is challenging.
Because of this constraint, an increase in GDP does not always suggest that an economy is increasing.
For example, if Country B produced 5 bananas value $1 each and 5 backrubs of $6 each in a year, the GDP would be $35.
If the price of bananas rises to $2 next year and the quantity produced remains constant, Country B’s GDP will be $40.
While the market value of Country B’s goods and services increased, the quantity of goods and services produced remained unchanged.
Because fluctuations in GDP are not always related to economic growth, this factor can make comparing GDP from one year to the next problematic.
Real GDP vs. Nominal GDP
Macroeconomists devised two types of GDP, nominal GDP and real GDP, to deal with the uncertainty inherent in GDP growth rates.
- The total worth of all produced goods and services at current prices is known as nominal GDP. This is the GDP that was discussed in the previous parts. When comparing sheer output with time rather than the value of output, nominal GDP is more informative than real GDP.
- The total worth of all produced goods and services at constant prices is known as real GDP.
- The prices used to calculate real GDP are derived from a certain base year.
- It is possible to compare economic growth from one year to the next in terms of production of goods and services rather than the market value of these products and services by leaving prices constant in the computation of real GDP.
- In this way, real GDP removes the effects of price fluctuations from year-to-year output comparisons.
Choosing a base year is the first step in computing real GDP. Use the GDP equation with year 3 numbers and year 1 prices to calculate real GDP in year 3 using year 1 as the base year. Real GDP equals (10 X $1) + (9 X $6) = $64 in this situation. The nominal GDP in year three is (10 X $2) + (9 X $6) = $74 in comparison. Because the price of bananas climbed from year one to year three, nominal GDP grew faster than actual GDP during this period.
GDP Deflator
Nominal GDP and real GDP convey various aspects of the shift when comparing GDP between years. Nominal GDP takes into account both quantity and price changes. Real GDP, on the other hand, just measures changes in quantity and is unaffected by price fluctuations. Because of this distinction, a third relevant statistic can be calculated once nominal and real GDP have been computed. The GDP deflator is the nominal GDP to real GDP ratio minus one for a particular year. The GDP deflator, in effect, shows how much of the change in GDP from a base year is due to changes in the price level.
Let’s say we want to calculate the GDP deflator for Country B in year 3 using as the base year.
To calculate the GDP deflator, we must first calculate both nominal and real GDP in year 3.
By rearranging the elements in the GDP deflator equation, nominal GDP may be calculated by multiplying real GDP and the GDP deflator.
This equation displays the distinct information provided by each of these output measures.
Changes in quantity are captured by real GDP.
Changes in the price level are captured by the GDP deflator.
Nominal GDP takes into account both price and quantity changes.
You can break down a change in GDP into its component changes in price level and change in quantities produced using nominal GDP, real GDP, and the GDP deflator.
GDP Per Capita
When describing the size and growth of a country’s economy, GDP is the single most helpful number. However, it’s crucial to think about how GDP relates to living standards. After all, a country’s economy is less essential to its residents than the level of living it delivers.
GDP per capita, calculated by dividing GDP by the population size, represents the average amount of GDP received by each individual, and hence serves as an excellent indicator of an economy’s level of life.
The value of GDP per capita is the income of a representative individual because GDP equals national income.
This figure is directly proportional to one’s standard of living.
In general, the higher a country’s GDP per capita, the higher its level of living.
Because of the differences in population between countries, GDP per capita is a more relevant indicator for measuring level of living than GDP.
If a country has a high GDP but a large population, each citizen may have a low income and so live in deplorable circumstances.
A country, on the other hand, may have a moderate GDP but a small population, resulting in a high individual income.
By comparing standard of living among countries using GDP per capita, the problem of GDP division among a country’s residents is avoided.
What is the GDP ranking of India?
The United States, China, and Japan are the world’s three largest economies in terms of nominal GDP. A variety of factors influence economic growth and prosperity, including workforce education, production output (as indicated by physical capital investment), natural resources, and entrepreneurship. As outlined below, the economies of the United States, China, and Japan each have a unique blend of key elements that have led to economic growth over time.
United States
Since 1871, the United States has been the world’s greatest economy. The United States’ nominal GDP is $21.44 trillion. The GDP of the United States (PPP) is also $21.44 trillion. In addition, the US is rated second in the world in terms of the estimated value of natural resources. The worth of natural resources in the United States was projected to be $45 trillion in 2016.
The powerful economy of the United States is due to a number of causes. The United States is well-known around the world for developing a culture that supports and encourages entrepreneurship, which fosters innovation and, in turn, economic prosperity. The workforce in the United States has become more diverse as a result of the country’s rising population. The United States also has one of the world’s most advanced manufacturing industries, second only to China. In addition, the US dollar is the most extensively utilized currency for international transactions.
China
Between 1989 and 2019, China, the world’s second-largest economy, experienced an average growth rate of 9.52 percent. China has the world’s second-biggest economy in terms of nominal GDP ($14.14 trillion) and the largest in terms of GDP (PPP) ($27.31 trillion). China’s natural resources are estimated to be worth $23 trillion, with rare earth metals and coal accounting for 90% of the total.
China’s 1978 economic reform initiative was a huge success, resulting in an increase in average economic growth from 6% to over 9%. The reform program prioritized the establishment of private and rural enterprises, the relaxation of governmental price rules, and investments in workforce education and industrial output. Worker efficiency is another driving element behind China’s economic success.
Japan
With a GDP of $5.15 trillion, Japan is the world’s third-largest economy. Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (PPP) is $5.75 trillion. Because Japan’s economy is market-driven, businesses, production, and prices change in response to customer demand rather than government intervention. While the Japanese economy was struck hard by the 2008 financial crisis and has been slow to recover since then, the 2020 Olympics are projected to provide it a boost.
The electronic products sector, which is the world’s largest, and the automobile industry, which is the world’s third largest, are the backbones of the Japanese economy. The Japanese economy confronts significant hurdles in the future, including a dwindling population and an ever-increasing debt, which is at 236 percent of GDP as of 2017.
Germany
With a GDP of $4.0 trillion, Germany has the world’s fourth-largest economy. Germany has a GDP (PPP) of $4.44 trillion and a per capita GDP of $46,560, making it the world’s 18th most prosperous country. The highly developed social market economy of Germany is Europe’s largest and strongest, with one of the most trained workforces. Germany accounted for 28 percent of the euro area economy, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Car manufacturing, machinery, home equipment, and chemicals are among Germany’s significant industries. The economy suffered a substantial setback following the 2008 financial crisis due to its reliance on capital goods exports. Due to the Internet and the digital age, the German economy is currently in the midst of its fourth industrial revolution. This change is known as Industry 4.0, and it encompasses solutions, processes, and technologies, as well as the usage of IT and a high degree of system networking in factories.
India
With a GDP of $2.94 trillion, India’s economy is the world’s fifth largest, surpassing the United Kingdom and France in 2019. India’s GDP (PPP) is $10.51 trillion, which is higher than Japan’s and Germany’s combined. India’s GDP per capita is $2,170 (for contrast, the United States’ GDP per capita is $62,794), owing to the country’s large population. However, India’s real GDP growth is forecast to slow for the third year in a row, from 7.5 percent to 5 percent.
From its earlier autarkic practices, India is evolving towards an open-market economy. Industrial deregulation, fewer controls on foreign trade and investment, and privatization of state-owned firms were all part of India’s economic liberalization in the early 1990s. These policies have aided India’s economic development. India’s service sector is the world’s fastest-growing sector, accounting for 60% of the economy and 28% of employment. Manufacturing and agriculture are two more important economic sectors.
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom is the world’s sixth-largest economy, with a GDP of $2.83 trillion. The UK is ranked ninth in terms of GDP purchasing power parity (PPP) with a GDP (PPP) of The United Kingdom is rated 23rd in the world in terms of GDP per capita, with $42,558. By 2023, the UK’s GDP is anticipated to drop to $3.27 trillion, making it the world’s seventh-largest economy. In 2016, the United Kingdom was the world’s tenth-largest exporter of products, sending commodities to 160 countries. The United Kingdom was the first country to industrialize in the 18th century.
The service sector, notably the financial services industry, dominates the UK economy, accounting for over 80% of GDP. London is the world’s second-largest financial center. Manufacturing and agriculture are the UK’s second and third major industries, respectively. Britain has the world’s second-largest aerospace sector and the tenth-largest pharmaceutical business.
France
France is Europe’s third-largest economy (after Germany and the United Kingdom) and the world’s seventh-largest economy. The nominal GDP of France is $2.71 trillion. France has the 19th largest GDP per capita in the world, at $42,877.56, and a GDP (PPP) of $2.96 trillion. According to the World Bank, France has sadly faced high unemployment rates in recent years, with unemployment rates of 10% in 2014, 2015, and 2016, and 9.681 percent in 2017.
The economy of France is a diverse, free-market-oriented economy. Agriculture and tourism, as well as the chemical industry, are important sectors for France. France owns nearly a third of the European Union’s agricultural land and is the world’s sixth-largest agricultural producer and second-largest agricultural exporter, after the United States. France is the most visited country in the planet. With 28 of the 500 largest firms, France is ranked fifth in the Fortune Global 500, behind the United States, China, Japan, and Germany.
Italy
Italy is the eighth-largest economy in the world, with a nominal GDP of $1.99 trillion. Italy’s economy is worth $2.40 trillion in PPP terms, with a per capita GDP of $34,260.34. By 2023, Italy’s economy is predicted to grow to $2.26 trillion. Unfortunately, Italy has a comparatively high unemployment rate of 9.7% and a debt level of 132 percent of GDP.
Italy’s exports, fortunately, are assisting in the recovery of the economy. Italy is the world’s eighth-largest exporter, with 59 percent of its exports going to other European Union members. Italy was predominantly an agrarian economy before World War II, but it has since evolved into one of the world’s most advanced nations. Italy is the European Union’s second-largest exporter, trailing only Germany, and has a huge trade surplus thanks to its exports of machinery, vehicles, food, apparel, luxury products, and other items.
Brazil
With a nominal GDP of $1.85 trillion, Brazil is the ninth largest economy in the world and the largest in Latin America. Brazil is also Latin America’s largest and most populous country. Brazil has a per capita GDP of $8,967 and a GDP (PPP) of $2.40 trillion, ranking 73rd in the world. Natural resources worth an estimated $21.8 trillion in the country include large deposits of timber, uranium, gold, and iron.
Brazil is a free-market economy in the early stages of development. Brazil was one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies from 2000 to 2012. Brazil, on the other hand, has one of the world’s most unequal economies. The economic crisis, corruption, and a lack of governmental policies all contributed to an increase in the poverty rate in 2017, and many people became homeless. Six billionaires in Brazil alone are wealthier than more than 100 million of the country’s poorest citizens.
Canada
With a nominal GDP of $1.73 trillion, Canada is the world’s tenth-largest economy. Canada’s per capita GDP of $46,260.71 places it 20th in the world, while its GDP (PPP) of $1.84 trillion places it 17th. By 2023, Canada’s GDP is predicted to reach $2.13 trillion.
With a $33.2 trillion projected worth of natural resources, Canada ranks fourth in the world. Because of its abundant natural resources, such as petroleum and natural gas, Canada is regarded as an energy superpower. Canada is one of the least corrupt countries in the world and one of the top 10 trading countries, according to the Corruption Perceptions Index. On the Index of Economic Freedom, Canada outperforms the United States and has a low degree of economic inequality.
What is India’s GDP forecast for 2021?
In its second advance estimates of national accounts released on Monday, the National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted the country’s growth for 2021-22 at 8.9%, slightly lower than the 9.2% estimated in its first advance estimates released in January.
Furthermore, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reduced its estimates of GDP contraction for the coronavirus pandemic-affected last fiscal year (2020-21) to 6.6 percent. The previous projection was for a 7.3% decrease.
In April-June 2020, the Indian economy contracted 23.8 percent, and in July-September 2020, it contracted 6.6 percent.
“While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in Q3 FY2022, the NSO’s initial estimates are far below our expectations (6.2 percent for GDP), with a marginal increase in manufacturing and a contraction in construction that is surprising given the heavy rains in the southern states,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 38.22 trillion in Q3 of 2021-22, up from Rs 36.26 trillion in Q3 of 2020-21, indicating an increase of 5.4 percent,” according to an official release.
According to the announcement, real GDP (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is expected to reach Rs 147.72 trillion in 2021-22, up from Rs 135.58 trillion in the first updated estimate announced on January 31, 2022.
GDP growth is expected to be 8.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
In terms of value, GDP in October-December 2021-22 was Rs 38,22,159 crore, up from Rs 36,22,220 crore in the same period of 2020-21.
According to NSO data, the manufacturing sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth remained nearly steady at 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22, compared to 8.4 percent a year ago.
GVA growth in the farm sector was weak in the third quarter, at 2.6 percent, compared to 4.1 percent a year before.
GVA in the construction sector decreased by 2.8%, compared to 6.6% rise a year ago.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of current fiscal year, compared to 1.5 percent growth the previous year.
Similarly, trade, hotel, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services expanded by 6.1 percent, compared to a decline of 10.1 percent a year ago.
In Q3 FY22, financial, real estate, and professional services growth was 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in Q3 FY21.
During the quarter under examination, public administration, defense, and other services expanded by 16.8%, compared to a decrease of 2.9 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grew by 4% between October and December of 2021.
“India’s GDP growth for Q3FY22 was a touch lower than our forecast of 5.7 percent, as the manufacturing sector grew slowly and the construction industry experienced unanticipated de-growth.” We have, however, decisively emerged from the pandemic recession, with all sectors of the economy showing signs of recovery.
“Going ahead, unlock trade will help growth in Q4FY22, as most governments have eliminated pandemic-related limitations, but weak rural demand and geopolitical shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impair global growth and supply chains.” The impending pass-through of higher oil and gas costs could affect domestic demand mood, according to Elara Capital economist Garima Kapoor.
“Strong growth in the services sector and a pick-up in private final consumption expenditure drove India’s real GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q3.” While agriculture’s growth slowed in Q3, the construction sector’s growth became negative.
“On the plus side, actual expenditure levels in both the private and public sectors are greater than they were before the pandemic.
“Given the encouraging trends in government revenues and spending until January 2022, as well as the upward revision in the nominal GDP growth rate for FY22, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for FY22 may come out better than what the (federal) budget projected,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist, L&T Financial Holdings.
“The growth number is pretty disappointing,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist of Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Securities, said, citing weaker rural consumer demand and investments as reasons.
After crude prices soared beyond $100 a barrel, India, which imports virtually all of its oil, might face a wider trade imbalance, a weaker rupee, and greater inflation, with a knock to GDP considered as the main concern.
“We believe the fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will remain, given the geopolitical volatility and crude oil prices,” Hajra added.
According to Nomura, a 10% increase in oil prices would shave 0.2 percentage points off India’s GDP growth while adding 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to retail inflation.
Widening sanctions against Russia are likely to have a ripple impact on India, according to Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
“We see a 20-30 basis point downside risk to our base predictions,” she said. For the time being, HDFC expects the GDP to rise 8.2% in the coming fiscal year.
What will be the GDP in 2021?
In addition to updated fourth-quarter projections, today’s announcement includes revised third-quarter 2021 wages and salaries, personal taxes, and government social insurance contributions, all based on new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and wages climbed by $306.8 billion in the third quarter, up $27.7 billion from the previous estimate. With the addition of this new statistics, real gross domestic income is now anticipated to have climbed 6.4 percent in the third quarter, a 0.6 percentage point gain over the prior estimate.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed by 5.7 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major components of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.1 percent (revised), or $2.10 trillion, to $23.00 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous forecast, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to a 1.2 percent gain. With food and energy prices excluded, the PCE price index grew 3.3 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Real GDP grew 5.6 (revised) percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a fall of 2.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 5.6 percent (revised), compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index grew 5.5 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, versus a 1.2 percent increase. The PCE price index grew 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Who determines GDP?
Who is in charge of calculating GDP? The Bureau of Economic Analysis uses thousands of data points gathered by several federal agencies and certain commercial data collectors to estimate GDP. BEA is a non-profit, non-political statistical organization. On bea.gov, all of its data is available for free.
What are the three methods for calculating GDP?
The value added approach, the income approach (how much is earned as revenue on resources utilized to make items), and the expenditures approach can all be used to calculate GDP (how much is spent on stuff).