The nominal GDP, or GDP at current prices, for the year 2021-22 is anticipated to be Rs 232.15 lakh crore, up from a tentative estimate of Rs 197.46 lakh crore for the year 2020-21.
What is the US GDP forecast for 2021?
According to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts, GDP in the United States is predicted to reach 21500.00 USD billion by the end of 2021.
What is the current GDP?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
What is the real GDP forecast?
In light of the pandemic and rising global commodity prices, the Reserve Bank set the economic growth rate for 2022-23 at 7.8%, down from 9.2% predicted in 2021-22.
The Reserve Bank’s growth forecast for the coming fiscal year is lower than the Finance Ministry’s forecast of 8-8.5 percent in the latest Economic Survey, which was tabled in Parliament earlier this month.
“Recovery in domestic economic activity is yet to be broad-based, as private consumption and contact-intensive services remain below pre-pandemic levels,” RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said when unveiling the bi-monthly policy.
He noted that the Union Budget 2022-23’s plans to expand public infrastructure through increased capital expenditure are projected to boost growth and draw in private investment through strong multiplier effects.
“Downside risks to the outlook include global financial market volatility, rising international commodity prices, particularly crude oil, and continued global supply-side disruptions,” he added.
Overall, he believes, there is a loss of near-term growth momentum as global variables deteriorate.
“Domestic growth drivers are gradually improving in the future. Taking all of these factors into account, real GDP growth is expected to be 7.8% in 2022-23, with 17.2% in Q1, 7.0 percent in Q2, 4.3 percent in Q3, and 4.5 percent in Q4 “he stated
The National Statistical Office (NSO) announced its first advance projections of national income on January 7, 2022, putting India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2021-22 at 9.2%, above the pre-pandemic level (2019-20).
“Except for private consumption, all major components of GDP exceeded their 2019-20 levels. The NSO reduced real GDP growth for 2020-21 to (-) 6.6 percent from provisional forecasts of (-) 7.3 percent in its January 31 report “he stated
According to him, available high frequency indications predict a weakening of demand in January 2022, owing to the drag on contact-intensive services caused by the rapid spread of the Omicron type of coronavirus across the country.
Two-wheeler and tractor sales in rural areas fell in December-January, he said, adding that the area sown in Rabi crops up to February 4, 2022 was increased by 1.5 percent over the previous year.
He stated that among the urban demand indices, consumer durables and passenger vehicle sales fell in November-December due to supply restrictions, while domestic air traffic fell in January due to Omicron.
While capital goods imports surged in December, capital goods production fell on a year-over-year (y-o-y) basis in November.
In January 2022, merchandise exports remained strong for the 11th month in a row; non-oil, non-gold imports also increased due to domestic demand.
The bi-monthly policy was announced against the backdrop of the Budget, which forecasted a nominal GDP of 11.1 percent for 2022-23. According to the Economic Survey, economic growth will be between 8% and 8.5 percent in the coming fiscal year.
The government anticipates this expansion to be fueled by a huge capital spending program proposed in the Budget, with the goal of attracting private investment by reviving economic activity and boosting demand.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman increased capital expenditure (capex) by 35.4 percent to Rs 7.5 lakh crore in 2022-23 to continue the pandemic-wounded economy’s public investment-led recovery. This year’s capex is estimated to be Rs 5.5 lakh crore.
Because all of the projects are to be delivered through contractors, the spending on multimodal logistics parks, metro systems, motorways, and trains is projected to increase demand for the private sector.
In terms of borrowing, the government expects to borrow a record Rs 11.6 lakh crore from the market in 2022-23 to cover its spending needs in order to keep the economy afloat. This is roughly Rs 2 lakh crore more than the Budget forecast for the current fiscal year, which is Rs 9.7 lakh crore.
Even the gross borrowing for the following financial year will be the largest in history, at Rs 14,95,000 crore, compared to the Budget Estimate (BE) of Rs 12,05,500 crore for 2021-22.
The fiscal deficit, or the difference between government spending and revenue, is expected to fall to 6.4 percent of GDP next year, down from 6.9 percent in the current fiscal year that ends March 31.
What is the state of the US economy in 2021?
Indeed, the year is starting with little signs of progress, as the late-year spread of omicron, along with the fading tailwind of fiscal stimulus, has experts across Wall Street lowering their GDP projections.
When you add in a Federal Reserve that has shifted from its most accommodative policy in history to hawkish inflation-fighters, the picture changes dramatically. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator currently shows a 0.1 percent increase in first-quarter GDP.
“The economy is slowing and downshifting,” said Joseph LaVorgna, Natixis’ head economist for the Americas and former chief economist for President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council. “It isn’t a recession now, but it will be if the Fed becomes overly aggressive.”
GDP climbed by 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021, capping a year in which the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States increased by 5.7 percent on an annualized basis. That followed a 3.4 percent drop in 2020, the steepest but shortest recession in US history, caused by a pandemic.
What will the state of the US economy be in 2022?
According to the Conference Board, real GDP growth in the United States would drop to 1.7 percent (quarter-over-quarter, annualized rate) in Q1 2022, down from 7.0 percent in Q4 2021. In 2022, annual growth is expected to be 3.0%. (year-over-year).
Is the US GDP increasing or decreasing?
Consumers splurged again after a summer spike in coronavirus infections subsided, while businesses replaced depleted inventory, boosting the US economy substantially in the fourth quarter.
Business reopenings and growing immunizations unlocked a pool of pent-up demand, helping the economy post its best year of growth since 1984.
According to the Commerce Department, the nation’s gross domestic product, or the value of all goods and services produced in the United States, expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.9% in the October-December period. Bloomberg polled economists, who predicted a 5.3 percent increase in GDP.
The economy was limited by the spread of the delta variant, supply chain bottlenecks, skyrocketing inflation, and the waning impacts of federal stimulus measures in the third quarter, when it only grew by 2.3 percent.
The economy grew by 5.7 percent last year, resulting in a new high of 6.4 million employment. As a result of the epidemic shuttering businesses and keeping Americans from their typical activities, the economy declined 3.4 percent in 2020, losing 9.4 million jobs.
However, the health issue has made 2021 a tumultuous comeback year, which is projected to persist at least through the first half of this year.
Consumer expenditure, which accounts for around 70% of economic activity, increased by 3.3 percent in the last three months of the year, following a 2% increase the previous quarter. After the delta spike subsided, Americans resumed dining out, traveling, and other activities early in the quarter. Many people started their holiday shopping early to avoid supply shortages.
The milder but more contagious omicron form, on the other hand, was causing shoppers to burrow down again towards the end of the fourth quarter. In December, retail sales declined by 1.9 percent. According to Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, the downturn is more likely to stifle economic growth in the first three months of 2022.
Delta is a Greek word that means ” “Shepherdson noted in a note to clients that the change “created minimal disturbance both to consumer demand and labor supply.” In the current quarter, he expects the economy to grow at a 1% annual rate.
However, with omicron instances declining as swiftly as they soared, the economic effects should be reversed by February, according to Capital Economics economist Paul Ashworth.
Barring the consequences of more varieties, this should set the foundation for another robust year of growth in 2022. The Federal Reserve estimates that growth would slow to around 4% as federal financial support decreases and people spend down their $2.5 trillion in COVID-19-related savings.
However, this would still be a robust increase, especially when compared to the 2.2 percent annual growth rate prior to the pandemic.
“In a note to clients, Wells Fargo economist Sam Bullard said, “The economy is set to face the same problems: a virus that won’t go away, severe supply concerns, and ongoing price pressure.”
But, according to Oxford Economics economist Kathy Bostjancic, all three obstacles should subside this year. And, just as a receding health crisis entices Americans to resume traveling and other activities, ongoing high pay growth founded in prolonged labor shortages is anticipated to fuel strong consumer spending.
What is the inflation rate forecast for the next 20 years?
From 2020 to 2040, $60 is expected to be the value. In terms of purchasing power, $60 in 2020 is comparable to around $93.94 in 2040, a $33.94 gain in 20 years. Between 2020 and 2040, the dollar saw an average annual inflation rate of 2.27 percent, resulting in a cumulative price increase of 56.57 percent.
What is a good rate of GDP growth?
Economists frequently agree that the ideal rate of GDP growth is between 2% and 3%. 5 To maintain a natural rate of unemployment, growth must be at least 3%. However, you don’t want to grow too quickly.
Who determines the GDP?
Despite the fact that the Central Statistics Office collaborates with numerous federal and state government agencies and departments to gather and assemble the data needed to calculate the GDP, it is the Central Statistics Office that uses the data and calculates the GDP.