Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer goods, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the leading contributors to the increase in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
How do you determine the rate of real GDP growth?
In general, real GDP is calculated by multiplying nominal GDP by the GDP deflator (R). For instance, if prices in an economy have risen by 1% since the base year, the deflating number is 1.01. If nominal GDP is $1 million, real GDP equals $1,000,000 divided by 1.01, or $990,099.
What is the rate of GDP growth?
The GDP growth rate examines the change in a country’s economic production year over year (or quarterly) to determine how fast it is increasing.
What is the annual growth rate of real GDP?
The percentage change in real GDP per capita between two consecutive years is used to compute the annual growth rate of real GDP per capita. GDP at constant prices is divided by the population of a country or area to get real GDP per capita. To make calculating country growth rates and aggregating country data easier, real GDP data are measured in constant US dollars.
Write out the formula
The average growth rate over time formula must first be written down. The formula will serve as a starting point for your calculations. You’ll need the numbers for each year and the number of years you’re comparing for the average growth rate over time formula. The average growth rate over time approach is calculated by dividing the current number by the previous value, multiplying to the 1/N power, and then subtracting one. The number of years is represented by “N” in this formula.
What is the best rate of GDP growth?
The ideal GDP growth rate is between between 2% and 3%. For the fourth quarter of 2021, the quarterly GDP rate was 3.3 percent, indicating that the economy increased by that much between September and December.
What is the real GDP growth rate from year one to year two?
Nominal GDP is GDP that hasn’t been adjusted for price fluctuations. If real GDP in Year 1 is $1,000 and in Year 2 is $1,028, the production growth rate from Year 1 to Year 2 is 2.8 percent; (1,028-1,000)/1,000 =. 028, which we multiply by 100 to get a percentage.
What is the current real GDP?
The Gross Domestic Product in the United States, corrected for inflation, is referred to as US Real GDP. The entire value of products produced and services provided in the United States is known as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Real GDP is a crucial metric for assessing the economy’s health. A recession is declared when real GDP growth is negative for two quarters in a row. In addition, the FOMC uses GDP as a metric for determining interest rates. US Real GDP increased as high as 12.8 percent per year during the post-World War II boom years, while 0-5 percent growth was more common in the late twentieth century.
The current amount of US Real GDP is 19.81 trillion dollars, up from 19.48 trillion dollars last quarter and 18.77 trillion dollars a year ago.
This is up 1.70 percent from the previous quarter and 5.56 percent from a year earlier.
What was the GDP growth in 2020?
From 1947 to 2021, the GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.20 percent, with a peak of 33.80 percent in the third quarter of 2020 and a low of -31.20 percent in the second quarter of 2020.