In the second quarter, the US economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.5 percent, falling short of Wall Street’s projections and up just a smidgeon from the first quarter.
For the first time, the preliminary data on gross domestic product puts economic output over its pre-pandemic level. However, the slower-than-expected rate of expansion fuels fears that the recovery from the pandemic-induced slump has reached its limit.
What was the second quarter’s GDP in 2020?
PCE increased as a result of increases in both services (headed by food services and lodging) and commodities (led by “other” nondurable goods, notably pharmaceutical products). Increases in equipment (headed by transportation equipment) and intellectual property items accounted for the growth in nonresidential fixed investment (led by research and development). The increase in exports was due to an increase in both products and services (dominated by non-automotive capital goods) (led by travel). A drop in retail trade inventories led to a drop in private inventory investment. The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower nondefense spending on intermediate goods and services. Nondefense services decreased in the second quarter as banks’ processing and management of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan applications on behalf of the federal government reduced.
In the second quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 13.0 percent on an annual basis, or $684.4 billion, to $22.72 trillion. Current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.9 percent, or $560.6 billion, in the first quarter (revised, tables 1 and 3). The Key Source Data and Assumptions file on BEA’s website has more information on the source data that underpins the estimates.
In the second quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.7 percent, compared to 3.9 percent (revised) in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.4 percent, compared to a 3.8 percent gain in the previous quarter (revised). The PCE price index climbed 6.1 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 2.7 percent overall (revised).
Personal Income
In the second quarter, current-dollar personal income fell $1.32 trillion, or 22.0 percent, compared to an increase of $2.33 trillion (revised), or 56.8%, in the first quarter. The decrease was primarily due to a reduction in government social benefits associated with pandemic relief programs, particularly the reduction in direct economic impact payments to households established by the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act and the American Rescue Plan Act (table 8). Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income provides more information on issues that affect personal income.
In the second quarter, disposable personal income fell $1.42 trillion, or 26.1 percent, compared to a rise of $2.27 trillion, or 63.7 percent (revised), in the first quarter. In contrast to a 57.6% gain in real disposable personal income, real disposable personal income fell by 30.6 percent.
Personal spending climbed by $680.8 billion, following a $538.8 billion increase. An increase in PCE for services drove the increase in outlays.
In the second quarter, personal savings totaled $1.97 trillion, down from $4.07 trillion (revised) in the first quarter.
In the second quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a proportion of disposable personal income) was 10.9 percent, down from 20.8 percent in the first quarter.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the primary source data and assumptions used in the advance estimate. For each release, a thorough Key Source Data and Assumptions file is also available. See the “Additional Information” section below for more information on GDP updates.
Annual Update of the National Economic Accounts
The Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts is included in today’s publication; the updated Industry Economic Accounts, as well as the third estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2021, will be provided on September 30, 2021. The update covered the period from the first quarter of 1999 through the first quarter of 2021, with revisions to GDP, GDI, and their primary components. The base year is still 2012. GDP and the Economy, a May Survey of Current Business item, contains more information about the 2021 Annual Update.
From the second quarter of 2009 through the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased at a pace of 2.3 percent annually, the same as previously reported. Real GDP declined at an annual rate of 19.2% from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2020, which is the same as previously reported. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 14.1 percent from the second quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previously released estimate.
BEA’s archives contain previously released estimates that have been superseded by today’s publication.
Updates for the First Quarter of 2021
Real GDP is expected to rise 6.3 percent in the first quarter of 2021 (table 1), 0.1 percentage point lower than previously reported. Downward revisions to federal government spending, state and local government spending, and exports were largely offset by an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment in the revision.
Real GDI is now expected to have climbed 6.3 percent in the first quarter (table 1), compared to 7.6 percent in the prior released figures. Compensation was the biggest factor in the negative revision, which was based on fresh first-quarter wage and salary estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
The price index for gross domestic purchases is now anticipated to have risen 3.9 percent in the first quarter, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 3.8 percent, which is 0.1 percentage point higher than the prior estimate. The PCE price index grew 2.7 percent, 0.2 percentage point more than previously reported, when food and energy prices were excluded.
In the second quarter of 2021, what was the GDP?
PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and state and local government expenditure all increased in the second quarter, but were partially offset by losses in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are deducted from GDP calculations, increased (table 2).
PCE increased as a result of increases in both services (headed by food services and lodging) and commodities (led by “other” nondurable goods, notably pharmaceutical products, as well as clothing and footwear). Increases in equipment (headed by transportation equipment) and intellectual property items accounted for the growth in nonresidential fixed investment (led by software as well as research and development). Increases in goods (dominated by non-automotive capital items) and services accounted for the increase in exports (led by travel). A drop in retail trade inventories led to a drop in private inventory investment. The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower nondefense spending on intermediate goods and services. Nondefense services decreased in the second quarter as banks’ processing and management of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan applications on behalf of the federal government reduced.
In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP climbed 13.4 percent on an annual basis, or $702.8 billion, to $22.74 trillion. GDP climbed by 10.9 percent, or $560.6 billion, in the first quarter (table 1 and table 3). The Key Source Data and Assumptions file on BEA’s website has more information on the source data that underpins the estimates.
In the second quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.8%, unchanged from the second estimate (table 4). The PCE price index grew 6.5 percent in the second estimate, unchanged from the previous estimate. The PCE price index grew 6.1 percent, unchanged from the second estimate, when food and energy prices were excluded.
In the second quarter, real gross domestic income (GDI) climbed by 2.3 percent, compared to 6.3 percent in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, climbed 4.5 percent, compared to a 6.3 percent gain in the first quarter (table 1).
In the second quarter, profits from current production (business profits adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption) climbed $267.8 billion, compared to $123.9 billion in the first quarter (table 10).
Domestic financial businesses raised their profits by $52.8 billion in the second quarter, compared to $1.3 billion in the first. Non-financial corporations’ profits increased in the United States.
$221.3 billion, up $133.2 billion from the previous year. Profits in the rest of the world fell $6.2 billion, compared to a $10.6 billion drop in the United States. Receipts grew $27.4 billion in the second quarter, while payments jumped $33.6 billion.
Real GDP climbed 6.7 percent in the third estimate for the second quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point. The increase was mostly due to increases in PCE, exports, and private inventory investment, which were partially offset by increases in imports and decreases in residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending. See the Technical Note and the “Additional Information” section below for more information.
In 2021, how much did the GDP grow?
As the economy continues to recover from the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic, US GDP growth surged in the fourth quarter, expanding at a 6.9% annual rate, up from the preceding four quarters’ rate of growth. Increased inventory investment and increased service consumption accounted for all of GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Real GDP increased by 5.5 percent in the first four quarters of 2021, the fastest rate since 1984.
In the fourth quarter, the economy was most likely producing at or near its full potential. The economy was still trending 1.4 percent below pre-pandemic levels. Even if the pandemic had not occurred, the economy is unlikely to have continued to develop at the same rate in 2020 and 2021 as it had in previous years. Prior to the pandemic, forecasters projected a slowdown since the economy was close to or at maximum employment, making it improbable that job gains would continue at the same rate. Furthermore, because of higher fatalities and limited immigration, which resulted in a smaller-than-expected labor force, and low investment, which resulted in a smaller-than-expected capital stock, the pandemic itself has certainly diminished potential.
Even while the economy was near to where it would have been had the epidemic and the government’s response not occurred, the economy’s makeup was drastically changed. On the supply side, employment remained low (because to low labor force participation), but this was compensated for by longer average hours and improved productivity. Final expenditures were biased towards commodities and residential investment, rather than services, business fixed investment, inventories, and net exports, on the demand side. In the fourth quarter, the demand side began to take on a more regular composition, but it remained highly skewed.
What was the GDP for the most recent quarter?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
In 2021, what was the fourth-quarter GDP growth?
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ “second” estimate, real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 1). Real GDP climbed by 2.3 percent in the third quarter.
The “advance” estimate released last month was based on less complete source data than the “final” estimate presented today. The rise in real GDP was 6.9% according to the preliminary assessment. Upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment partially offset downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and exports in the updated estimates (refer to “Updates to GDP”).
What is the GDP of the United States in 2022?
According to our econometric models, the US GDP will trend around 22790.00 USD Billion in 2022 and 23420.00 USD Billion in 2023 in the long run.
Is the economy doing well right now?
Indeed, the year is starting with little signs of progress, as the late-year spread of omicron, along with the fading tailwind of fiscal stimulus, has experts across Wall Street lowering their GDP projections.
When you add in a Federal Reserve that has shifted from its most accommodative policy in history to hawkish inflation-fighters, the picture changes dramatically. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator currently shows a 0.1 percent increase in first-quarter GDP.
“The economy is slowing and downshifting,” said Joseph LaVorgna, Natixis’ head economist for the Americas and former chief economist for President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council. “It isn’t a recession now, but it will be if the Fed becomes overly aggressive.”
GDP climbed by 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021, capping a year in which the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States increased by 5.7 percent on an annualized basis. That followed a 3.4 percent drop in 2020, the steepest but shortest recession in US history, caused by a pandemic.
In 2021, which country will have the greatest GDP?
What are the world’s largest economies? According to the International Monetary Fund, the following countries have the greatest nominal GDP in the world:
How much debt does America have?
“Parties in power have built up the deficit through increased spending and poorer tax collection, regardless of political affiliation,” says Brian Rehling, head of Global Fixed Income Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
While it’s easy to suggest that a specific president or president’s administration led the federal deficit and national debt to move in a given direction, it’s crucial to remember that only Congress has the power to pass legislation that has the greatest impact on both figures.
Here’s how Congress responded during four major presidential administrations, and how their decisions affected the deficit and national debt.
Franklin D. Roosevelt
FDR served as the country’s last four-term president, guiding the country through a series of economic downturns. His administration spanned the Great Depression, and his flagship New Deal economic recovery plan aided America’s rebound from its financial abyss. The expense of World War II, however, contributed nearly $186 billion to the national debt between 1942 and 1945, making it the greatest substantial rise to the national debt. During FDR’s presidency, Congress added $236 billion to the national debt, a rise of 1,048 percent.
Ronald Reagan
Congress passed two major tax cuts during Reagan’s two administrations, the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 and the Tax Reform Act of 1986, both of which reduced government income. Between 1982 and 1990, Congress passed Acts that reduced revenue as a percentage of GDP by 1.7 percent, resulting in a revenue shortfall that contributed to the national debt rising 261 percent ($1.26 trillion) during his presidency, from $924.6 billion to $2.19 trillion.
Barack Obama
The Obama administration oversaw both the Great Recession and the recovery that followed the collapse of the mortgage market throughout his two years in office. The Economic Stimulus Act of 2009, which pumped $831 billion into the economy and helped many Americans avoid foreclosure, was passed by Congress in 2009. When passed by a strong bipartisan vote, congressional tax cuts added extra $858 billion to the national debt. During Obama’s two terms in office, Congress increased the national deficit by 74% and added $8.6 trillion to the national debt.
Donald Trump
Congress approved the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, slashing corporate and personal income tax rates, during his single term. The cuts, which were seen as a bonanza for the wealthiest Americans and corporations at the time of their passage, were expected by the Congressional Budget Office to increase the government deficit by $1.9 trillion at the time of their passing.
The federal deficit climbed from $665 billion in 2017 to $3.13 trillion in 2020, despite the Treasury Secretary’s prediction that the tax cuts would reduce it. Some of the rise was due to tax cuts, but the majority of the increase was due to successive Covid relief programs.
The public’s share of the federal debt has risen from $14.6 trillion in 2017 to more than $21 trillion in 2020. The national debt is made up of public debt and intragovernmental debt (amounts owed to federal retirement trust funds such as the Social Security Trust Fund). It refers to the amount of money owed by the United States to external debtors such as American banks and investors, corporations, people, state and municipal governments, the Federal Reserve, and foreign governments and international investors such as Japan and China. The money is borrowed in order to keep the United States running. Treasury banknotes, notes, and bonds are included. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), US savings bonds, and state and local government series securities are among the other holders of public debt.
“The national debt is growing at a rate it hasn’t seen in decades,” says James Cassel, chairman and co-founder of Cassel Salpeter, an investment bank. “This is the outcome of the basic principle of spending more money than you earn.” Cassel also points out that while both major political parties have spoken seriously about reducing the national debt at times, discussions and strategies have stopped.
When both sides pose discussing raising the debt ceiling each year, the national debt is more typically utilized as a bargaining chip. The United States would default on its debt obligations if the debt ceiling was not raised. As a result, Congress always votes to raise the debt ceiling (the maximum amount of money the US government may borrow), but only after parties have reached an agreement on other legislation.
Is a higher or lower GDP preferable?
Gross domestic product (GDP) has traditionally been used by economists to gauge economic success. If GDP is increasing, the economy is doing well and the country is progressing. On the other side, if GDP declines, the economy may be in jeopardy, and the country may be losing ground.