Increases in private inventory investment, PCE, state and local government expenditure, and nonresidential fixed investment offset losses in residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and exports in the third quarter, resulting in a rise in real GDP. Imports, which are deducted from GDP calculations, increased (table 2).
Private inventory investment increased as wholesale trade (driven by nondurable goods industries) and retail trade both grew (led by motor vehicles and parts dealers). The rise in PCE was due to a rise in services, which was somewhat offset by a drop in products. Increases in services were broad, with “other” services (mostly overseas travel), transportation services, and health care contributing the most. The decline in products was mostly due to lower spending on automobiles and parts. Employee remuneration drove the increase in state and local government spending (notably, education). The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was partly offset by declines in structures and equipment due to an increase in intellectual property products (headed by software and research & development).
The drop in residential fixed investment was mostly due to lower spending on upgrades and new single-family homes. After the processing and management of Paycheck Protection Program loan applications by banks on behalf of the federal government concluded in the second quarter, the fall in federal government spending was mostly due to a decrease in nondefense spending on intermediate goods and services. The drop in exports was due to a drop in products, which was partially offset by a rise in services. The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in services (led by travel and transport).
A decrease in PCE more than compensated for the drop in real GDP in the third quarter. Between the second and third quarters, consumer spending on goods (dominated by automobiles and parts) and services slowed (led by food services and accommodations).
In the third quarter, current dollar GDP climbed by 8.1 percent on an annual basis, or $446.0 billion, to $23.19 trillion. GDP climbed by 13.4%, or $702.8 billion, in the second quarter (table 1 and table 3). The “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file on BEA’s website (available at 10 a.m.) has more detail on the source data that underpin the estimates.
In the third quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 5.8 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 5.3 percent, compared to a 6.5 percent increase in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 4.5 percent without food and energy expenses, compared to 6.1 percent overall.
Gross Domestic income and Corporate Profits
In the third quarter, real gross domestic income (GDI) climbed by 6.7 percent, compared to 4.3 percent (revised) in the second quarter. In the third quarter, the average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of US economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, climbed 4.4 percent, compared to a 5.5 percent gain in the second quarter (table 1).
In the third quarter, profits from current production (business profits adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption) climbed $121.4 billion, compared to $267.8 billion in the second quarter (table 10).
Domestic financial businesses’ profits grew $13.7 billion in the third quarter, compared to $52.8 billion in the previous quarter. Domestic nonfinancial firms saw a $67.5 billion gain in profits, compared to a $221.3 billion increase in financial corporations. Profits from the rest of the world climbed by $40.1 billion, compared to a $6.2 billion loss in the United States. Receipts grew $43.1 billion in the third quarter, while payments increased $3.0 billion.
Updates to GDP
Real GDP expanded 2.1 percent in the second estimate for the third quarter, 0.1 percentage point higher than the advance estimate. Exports, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and federal government expenditure were largely offset by upward revisions to PCE, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the GDP calculation, have been reduced. Refer to the Technical Note and the “Additional Information” section below for more information.
What was GDP in the third quarter of 2020?
Increases in private inventory investment, PCE, state and local government expenditure, and nonresidential fixed investment offset reductions in exports, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending in the third quarter, resulting in a rise in real GDP. Imports have risen (table 2).
Private inventory investment increased as wholesale trade (driven by nondurable goods industries) and retail trade both grew (led by motor vehicles and parts dealers). The rise in PCE was due to a rise in services, which was somewhat offset by a drop in products. Increases were seen across the board, with “other” services (mostly overseas travel) and transportation services contributing the most. The decline in products was mostly due to lower spending on automobiles and parts. Employee remuneration drove the increase in state and local government spending (notably, education). The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was partly offset by declines in equipment and structures due to an increase in intellectual property products (headed by software and research and development).
The drop in residential fixed investment was mostly due to lower spending on upgrades and new single-family homes. After the processing and management of Paycheck Protection Program loan applications by banks on behalf of the federal government concluded in the second quarter, the fall in federal government spending was mostly due to a decrease in nondefense spending on intermediate goods and services. The drop in exports was due to a drop in both products and services. The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in services (led by travel and transport).
In the third quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 8.4% on an annual basis, or $461.3 billion, to $23.20 trillion. GDP climbed by 13.4%, or $702.8 billion, in the second quarter (table 1 and table 3). The “Key Underlying Data and Assumptions” file on BEA’s website has more detail on the source data that underpins the estimates.
In the third quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.6 percent, compared to 5.8 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 5.3 percent, compared to a 6.5 percent increase in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 4.6 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 6.1 percent overall.
Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits
The third quarter had a 5.8% increase in real gross domestic income (GDI), compared to a 4.3 percent gain in the second quarter. In the third quarter, the average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of US economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, climbed 4.1 percent, compared to a 5.5 percent gain in the second quarter (table 1).
In the third quarter, profits from current production (business profits adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption) climbed by $96.9 billion, compared to $267.8 billion in the second quarter (table 10).
Domestic financial businesses’ profits grew $14.2 billion in the third quarter, compared to $52.8 billion in the previous quarter. Domestic nonfinancial firms saw a $31.6 billion gain in profits, compared to a $221.3 billion increase in financial corporations. Profits in the rest of the world grew $51.1 billion, compared to a $6.2 billion fall in the United States. Receipts grew $65.2 billion in the third quarter, while payments increased $14.1 billion.
Real GDP climbed 2.3 percent in the third estimate, which was 0.2 percentage point higher than the second estimate. Downward revisions to exports and federal government spending partially offset upward revisions to PCE (specifically, an upward revision to services), private inventory investment (both farm and nonfarm), residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports have been reduced. Refer to the Technical Note and the “Additional Information” section below for more information.
In 2020, what was the GDP?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
What will the GDP be in the third and fourth quarters of 2020?
The rise in exports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by industrial supplies and materials). Nonresidential fixed investment increased mostly due to an increase in equipment (led by transportation equipment). The rise in PCE was due to a rise in services (led by health care). Single-family units accounted for the majority of the growth in residential fixed investment. Manufacturing, which includes both durable and nondurable goods industries, accounted for the majority of the increase in private inventory investment.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed by 6.3 percent on an annual basis, or $324.4 billion, to $21.49 trillion. GDP climbed by 38.3 percent, or $1.65 trillion, in the third quarter (tables 1 and 3). The “Key Underlying Data and Assumptions” file on BEA’s website has more detail on the source data that underpins the estimates.
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 1.7 percent, compared to 3.3 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 1.5 percent, compared to 3.7 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 1.3 percent without food and energy expenses, compared to 3.4 percent overall.
In the fourth quarter, real gross domestic income (GDI) climbed 15.7 percent, compared to 24.1 percent in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, rose 9.9%, compared to 28.7% in the third quarter (table 1).
In the fourth quarter, profits from current production (business profits adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption) fell $31.4 billion, compared to $499.6 billion in the third quarter (table 10).
Domestic financial businesses’ profits grew $17.5 billion in the fourth quarter, compared to $12.1 billion in the previous quarter. Domestic nonfinancial firms’ profits fell by $48.2 billion, compared to a $436.2 billion gain in financial corporations’ profits. Profits in the rest of the world fell $0.7 billion, compared to a $51.3 billion increase in the United States. Receipts climbed by $29.0 billion in the fourth quarter, while payments increased by $29.7 billion.
The change in fourth-quarter real GDP was revised up 0.2 percentage point from the second estimate in the third estimate. Upward revisions to private inventory investment and state and local government spending were largely offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and consumer spending in the updated estimates. See the Technical Note for further information on the updates. See the “Additional Details” section for further information on the GDP update schedule.
What was the fourth quarter’s GDP in 2020?
The rise in exports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by industrial supplies and materials). Nonresidential fixed investment increased as a result of increases in all components, headed by equipment (mainly transportation equipment). Spending on services (headed by health care) accounted for more than half of the growth in PCE; spending on products fell (led by food and beverages). The rise in residential fixed investment was mostly due to new single-family house construction. An increase in manufacturing, partially offset by a reduction in retail commerce, more than offset the increase in private inventory investment.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed by 6.1 percent on an annual basis, or $317.6 billion, to $21.49 trillion. GDP climbed by 38.3 percent, or $1.65 trillion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3). The “Key Underlying Data and Assumptions” file on BEA’s website has more detail on the source data that underpins the estimates.
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 1.8 percent, compared to 3.3 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 1.6 percent, compared to 3.7 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 1.4 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 3.4 percent overall.
Real GDP grew 0.1 percentage point in the second estimate for the fourth quarter, owing mostly to upward revisions to residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending, which were somewhat offset by a downward revision to PCE. See the Technical Note for further information. See the “Additional Information” section below for more information on GDP updates.
In 2021, what was the actual GDP?
In addition to updated fourth-quarter projections, today’s announcement includes revised third-quarter 2021 wages and salaries, personal taxes, and government social insurance contributions, all based on new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and wages climbed by $306.8 billion in the third quarter, up $27.7 billion from the previous estimate. With the addition of this new statistics, real gross domestic income is now anticipated to have climbed 6.4 percent in the third quarter, a 0.6 percentage point gain over the prior estimate.
In 2021, real GDP climbed by 5.7 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major components of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.1 percent (revised), or $2.10 trillion, to $23.00 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous forecast, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to a 1.2 percent gain. With food and energy prices excluded, the PCE price index grew 3.3 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Real GDP grew 5.6 (revised) percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a fall of 2.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 5.6 percent (revised), compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index grew 5.5 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, versus a 1.2 percent increase. The PCE price index grew 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
In 2021, what was the first quarter GDP growth?
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ “third” estimate, real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021 (table 1). Real GDP climbed by 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter.
The “third” GDP estimate, presented today, is based on more detailed source data than the “second” estimate given last month. The growth in real GDP was also 6.4 percent in the second estimate. Upward adjustments to nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and exports were somewhat offset by an upward revision to imports, which are deducted from GDP calculations (see “Updates to GDP”).
What is the GDP of the top five economies in the world?
What are the world’s largest economies? According to the International Monetary Fund, the following countries have the greatest nominal GDP in the world:
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30th of August, 2021 Despite an increase in growth in the second quarter of 2021, to 1.6 percent from 0.6 percent the previous quarter, the OECD area’s GDP remains below pre-pandemic levels, according to provisional data.
GDP growth in the Major Seven economies as a whole improved to 1.6 percent (from 0.4 percent) in the second quarter of 2021, however there were significant differences between countries.
The biggest rise was in the United Kingdom (4.8 percent, up from 1.6 percent in the previous quarter), followed by Italy (2.7 percent from 0.2 percent in the previous quarter). The GDP of the other Major Seven Economies increased as well, but to a lesser level. GDP increased by 1.6 percent in both the United States and Germany, compared to 1.5 percent and minus 2.0 percent in the preceding quarter. Following 0.0 percent and minus 0.9 percent growth in the preceding quarter, GDP in France and Japan expanded by 0.9 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. Canada’s growth rate was 0.6 percent in the second quarter, down from 1.4 percent the previous quarter, making it the only Major Seven country to experience a deceleration in growth.
After falls of (minus) 0.3 percent and (minus) 0.1 percent in the previous quarter, GDP growth in the euro area and the European Union turned positive in the second quarter of 2021, reaching 2.0 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively.
When comparing economic activity in the second quarter of 2021 to pre-pandemic levels (Q4-2019), GDP in the OECD region as a whole still lags behind (minus 0.7 percent ). The United Kingdom had the greatest disparity (minus 4.4%) among the Major Seven economies, followed by Italy (minus 3.8%), France, and Germany (both at minus 3.3 percent ). The United States is the only one of the Major Seven economies to have recovered to pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter of 2021, with GDP increasing by 0.8 percent.
Quarterly GDP, Total, Percentage Change, Previous Period, Quarterly, Last 8 Quarters (OECD Chart)
Quarterly National Accounts: Quarterly Growth Rates of Real GDP (Source: Quarterly National Accounts)
In the first quarter of 2022, how much do you estimate real GDP will grow?
According to 36 analysts polled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the US economy for the current quarter looks weaker than it did in November. Forecasters expect real GDP to rise at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2022, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous survey’s prediction of 3.9 percent. The panel predicts that real GDP will rise at a pace of 3.7 percent this year, 2.7 percent in 2023, and 2.3 percent in 2024, based on an annual-average over annual-average calculation. The annual projections haven’t changed much since they were released three months ago.
The prognosis for growth is accompanied by downward revisions to the unemployment rate projections. The unemployment rate is expected to drop from 3.9 percent this quarter to 3.4 percent in the first quarter of 2023, according to forecasts. The panelists expect that the unemployment rate will fall from 3.7 percent in 2022 to 3.4 percent in 2023, then rise slightly during the next two years, based on the annual-average computation. Annual average forecasts for 2022 to 2024 are 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points lower than in the previous survey.
Job growth predictions for the first two quarters of 2022 have been revised upward by forecasters. The annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment is projected to grow at a monthly rate of 430,900 in 2022, which is slightly changed from the previous forecast. (The year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment is converted to a monthly rate for these annual-average predictions.)