Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
What was the GDP in Q4 2021?
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ “second” estimate, real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 1). Real GDP climbed by 2.3 percent in the third quarter.
The “advance” estimate released last month was based on less complete source data than the “final” estimate presented today. The rise in real GDP was 6.9% according to the preliminary assessment. Upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment partially offset downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and exports in the updated estimates (refer to “Updates to GDP”).
What was the GDP growth in 2020?
From 1947 to 2021, the GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.20 percent, with a peak of 33.80 percent in the third quarter of 2020 and a low of -31.20 percent in the second quarter of 2020.
In the fourth quarter of 2020, what was the GDP?
The rise in exports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by industrial supplies and materials). Nonresidential fixed investment increased as a result of increases in all components, headed by equipment (mainly transportation equipment). Spending on services (headed by health care) accounted for more than half of the growth in PCE; spending on products fell (led by food and beverages). The rise in residential fixed investment was mostly due to new single-family house construction. An increase in manufacturing, partially offset by a reduction in retail commerce, more than offset the increase in private inventory investment.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed by 6.1 percent on an annual basis, or $317.6 billion, to $21.49 trillion. GDP climbed by 38.3 percent, or $1.65 trillion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3). The “Key Underlying Data and Assumptions” file on BEA’s website has more detail on the source data that underpins the estimates.
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 1.8 percent, compared to 3.3 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 1.6 percent, compared to 3.7 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 1.4 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 3.4 percent overall.
Real GDP grew 0.1 percentage point in the second estimate for the fourth quarter, owing mostly to upward revisions to residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending, which were somewhat offset by a downward revision to PCE. See the Technical Note for further information. See the “Additional Information” section below for more information on GDP updates.
In 2022, what was the GDP?
According to our econometric models, the US GDP will trend around 22790.00 USD Billion in 2022 and 23420.00 USD Billion in 2023 in the long run.
Is an increase in GDP good?
- The gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary worth of all products and services exchanged in a given economy.
- GDP growth signifies economic strength, whereas GDP decline indicates economic weakness.
- When GDP is derived through economic devastation, such as a car accident or a natural disaster, rather than truly productive activity, it can provide misleading information.
- By integrating more variables in the calculation, the Genuine Progress Indicator aims to enhance GDP.
What is the current real GDP?
The Gross Domestic Product in the United States, corrected for inflation, is referred to as US Real GDP. The entire value of products produced and services provided in the United States is known as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Real GDP is a crucial metric for assessing the economy’s health. A recession is declared when real GDP growth is negative for two quarters in a row. In addition, the FOMC uses GDP as a metric for determining interest rates. US Real GDP increased as high as 12.8 percent per year during the post-World War II boom years, while 0-5 percent growth was more common in the late twentieth century.
The current amount of US Real GDP is 19.81 trillion dollars, up from 19.48 trillion dollars last quarter and 18.77 trillion dollars a year ago.
This is up 1.70 percent from the previous quarter and 5.56 percent from a year earlier.
In 2021, what was the first quarter GDP growth?
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ “third” estimate, real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021 (table 1). Real GDP climbed by 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter.
The “third” GDP estimate, presented today, is based on more detailed source data than the “second” estimate given last month. The growth in real GDP was also 6.4 percent in the second estimate. Upward adjustments to nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and exports were somewhat offset by an upward revision to imports, which are deducted from GDP calculations (see “Updates to GDP”).
In 2021, how much did the GDP grow?
As the economy continues to recover from the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic, US GDP growth surged in the fourth quarter, expanding at a 6.9% annual rate, up from the preceding four quarters’ rate of growth. Increased inventory investment and increased service consumption accounted for all of GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Real GDP increased by 5.5 percent in the first four quarters of 2021, the fastest rate since 1984.
In the fourth quarter, the economy was most likely producing at or near its full potential. The economy was still trending 1.4 percent below pre-pandemic levels. Even if the pandemic had not occurred, the economy is unlikely to have continued to develop at the same rate in 2020 and 2021 as it had in previous years. Prior to the pandemic, forecasters projected a slowdown since the economy was close to or at maximum employment, making it improbable that job gains would continue at the same rate. Furthermore, because of higher fatalities and limited immigration, which resulted in a smaller-than-expected labor force, and low investment, which resulted in a smaller-than-expected capital stock, the pandemic itself has certainly diminished potential.
Even while the economy was near to where it would have been had the epidemic and the government’s response not occurred, the economy’s makeup was drastically changed. On the supply side, employment remained low (because to low labor force participation), but this was compensated for by longer average hours and improved productivity. Final expenditures were biased towards commodities and residential investment, rather than services, business fixed investment, inventories, and net exports, on the demand side. In the fourth quarter, the demand side began to take on a more regular composition, but it remained highly skewed.
What is the GDP of the United States in the first and second quarters of 2020? How much will personal consumption expenditures be in the first and second quarters of 2020?
PCE rose due to increases in both services (dominated by food services and lodging) and goods (driven by other nondurable commodities, particularly pharmaceutical products). Increases in equipment (headed by transportation equipment) and intellectual property items accounted for the growth in nonresidential fixed investment (led by research and development). The increase in exports was due to an increase in both products and services (dominated by non-automotive capital goods) (led by travel). A drop in retail trade inventories led to a drop in private inventory investment. The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower nondefense spending on intermediate goods and services. Nondefense services decreased in the second quarter as banks’ processing and management of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan applications on behalf of the federal government reduced.
In the second quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 13.0 percent on an annual basis, or $684.4 billion, to $22.72 trillion. Current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.9 percent, or $560.6 billion, in the first quarter (revised, tables 1 and 3). The Key Source Data and Assumptions file on BEA’s website has more information on the source data that underpins the estimates.
In the second quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.7 percent, compared to 3.9 percent (revised) in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.4 percent, compared to a 3.8 percent gain in the previous quarter (revised). The PCE price index climbed 6.1 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 2.7 percent overall (revised).
In the second quarter, current-dollar personal income fell $1.32 trillion, or 22.0 percent, compared to a gain of $2.33 trillion, or 56.8%, in the first quarter. The decrease was primarily due to a reduction in government social benefits related to pandemic relief programs, particularly the reduction in direct economic impact payments to households mandated by the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act and the American Rescue Plan Act. Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income provides more information on issues that affect personal income.
In the second quarter, disposable personal income fell $1.42 trillion, or 26.1 percent, after rising $2.27 trillion, or 63.7 percent, in the first quarter. In contrast to a 57.6% gain in real disposable personal income, real disposable personal income fell by 30.6 percent.
Personal spending climbed by $680.8 billion, following a $538.8 billion increase. An increase in PCE for services drove the increase in outlays.
In the second quarter, personal savings totaled $1.97 trillion, down from $4.07 trillion in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a proportion of disposable personal income) was 10.9 percent, down from 20.8 percent in the first quarter.
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the primary source data and assumptions used in the advance estimate. For each release, a thorough Key Source Data and Assumptions file is also available. See the Additional Information section for further information on GDP updates.
Annual Update of the National Economic Accounts
The Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts is included in today’s publication; the updated Industry Economic Accounts, as well as the third estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2021, will be provided on September 30, 2021. The update covered the period from the first quarter of 1999 through the first quarter of 2021, with revisions to GDP, GDI, and their primary components. The base year is still 2012. GDP and the Economy, a May Survey of Current Business item, contains more information about the 2021 Annual Update.
From the second quarter of 2009 through the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased at a pace of 2.3 percent annually, the same as previously reported. Real GDP declined at an annual rate of 19.2% from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2020, which is the same as previously reported. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 14.1 percent from the second quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previously released estimate.
Most NIPA tables are now available through BEA’s Interactive Data program on the BEA website, as of today’s release (www.bea.gov). The complete table release schedule and a summary of findings through 2020, which includes a discussion of methodology revisions, can be found in Information on Updates to the National Economic Accounts. For each component of GDP, national income, and personal income, a table detailing the key current-dollar changes and their sources is also included. An item explaining the update in further detail will appear in the August 2021 Survey of Current Business.
BEA’s archives contain previously released estimates that have been superseded by today’s publication.
Updates for the First Quarter of 2021
Real GDP is expected to rise 6.3 percent in the first quarter of 2021, 0.1 percentage point less than previously reported. Downward revisions to federal government spending, state and local government spending, and exports were largely offset by an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment in the revision.
Real GDI is now anticipated to have climbed 6.3 percent in the first quarter, compared to 7.6 percent in the prior released figures. Compensation was the biggest factor in the negative revision, which was based on fresh first-quarter wage and salary estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
The price index for gross domestic purchases is now anticipated to have risen 3.9 percent in the first quarter, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The PCE price index climbed by 3.8 percent, which is 0.1 percentage point higher than the prior estimate. The PCE price index grew 2.7 percent, 0.2 percentage point more than previously reported, when food and energy prices were excluded.’