According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ “first” estimate, real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 (table 1). Real GDP climbed by 3.4 percent in the third quarter.
Because of the partial government shutdown, the “advance” estimate for the fourth quarter and annual GDP for 2018 was originally slated for January 30th, and the “second” estimate was originally scheduled for February 28th. For more information, see the Technical Note.
The Bureau stressed that the fourth-quarter preliminary estimate provided today is based on incomplete or subject to revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Initial Estimate” on page 3). On March 28, 2019, updated fourth-quarter forecasts will be provided, based on more full data.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, and federal government spending all contributed to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter. Negative contributions from household fixed investment and state and local government spending partially offset these gains. Imports, which are deducted from GDP calculations, increased (table 2).
The fourth-quarter slowdown in real GDP growth was due to decreases in private inventory investment, PCE, and federal government spending, as well as a decrease in state and local government spending. An increase in exports and a speeding up of nonresidential fixed investment partially compensated these developments. Imports grew at a slower pace in the fourth quarter than in the third.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed by 4.6 percent, or $233.2 billion, to $20.89 trillion. GDP in current dollars climbed by 4.9 percent, or $246.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 1.6 percent, compared to 1.8 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 1.5 percent, compared to a 1.6 percent increase in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 1.7 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.6 percent overall.
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $225.1 billion, compared to $190.6 billion in the third quarter. The increase in personal income was due to an increase in farm proprietor income as well as increases in personal dividend and interest income. Employee compensation has slowed.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income climbed by $218.7 billion, or 5.7 percent, compared to $160.9 billion, or 4.2 percent, in the third quarter. The growth in real disposable personal income was 4.2 percent, compared to a 2.6 percent gain in the previous year.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.06 trillion, up from $996.0 billion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a proportion of disposable personal income) was 6.7 percent, up from 6.4 percent in the third quarter.
Based on newly available tabulations from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program, the percent change in real GDI for the third quarter of 2018 was updated from 4.3 percent to 4.6 percent.
In 2018, real GDP increased by 2.9 percent (from the 2017 annual level to the 2018 annual level), compared to a 2.2 percent gain in 2017. (table 1).
PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and state and local government expenditure all contributed to the increase in real GDP in 2018, which was partially offset by a minor negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are deducted from GDP calculations, increased (table 2).
The increase in real GDP between 2017 and 2018 was primarily due to increases in nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, federal government spending, exports, and PCE, as well as an increase in state and local government spending, which was partially offset by a decline in residential investment.
GDP in current dollars climbed 5.2 percent, or $1.02 trillion, to $20.50 trillion in 2018, compared to 4.2 percent, or $778.2 billion, in 2017. (table 1 and table 3).
In 2018, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 2.2 percent, compared to 1.9 percent in 2017. (table 4). The PCE price index grew 2.0 percent, compared to 1.8 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 1.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.6 percent overall (table 4).
Real GDP increased by 3.1 percent in 2018 (measured from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018), compared to 2.5 percent in 2017. During 2018, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 2.1 percent, compared to 1.9 percent in 2017.
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s Web site contains information on the source data and important assumptions utilized for unavailable source data in the initial estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. See the “Additional Information” section below for more information on GDP updates.
What was the Gross Domestic Product in 2018 and 2019?
The government lowered the economic growth forecast for 2019-20 to 4% from 4.2 percent previously predicted, owing to decline in secondary sectors such as manufacturing and construction. In revised national account figures, the National Statistical Office stated, “Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2019-20 and 2018-19 stands at Rs 145.69 trillion and Rs 140.03 trillion, respectively, showing a rise of 4.0 percent in 2019-20 and 6.5 percent in 2018-19.”
In 2020, what was the GDP?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
In 2021, what was the US GDP?
In addition to updated fourth-quarter projections, today’s announcement includes revised third-quarter 2021 wages and salaries, personal taxes, and government social insurance contributions, all based on new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and wages climbed by $306.8 billion in the third quarter, up $27.7 billion from the previous estimate. With the addition of this new statistics, real gross domestic income is now anticipated to have climbed 6.4 percent in the third quarter, a 0.6 percentage point gain over the prior estimate.
In 2021, real GDP climbed by 5.7 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major components of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.1 percent (revised), or $2.10 trillion, to $23.00 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous forecast, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to a 1.2 percent gain. With food and energy prices excluded, the PCE price index grew 3.3 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Real GDP grew 5.6 (revised) percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a fall of 2.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 5.6 percent (revised), compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index grew 5.5 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, versus a 1.2 percent increase. The PCE price index grew 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
What was the state of the US economy in 2019?
- As a result of the COVID-19 epidemic, the United States’ economic expansion will come to a stop this year. The US GDP expanded by 2.3 percent in 2019. Market forecasts suggest a drop of more than 3% in 2020, which would be a larger drop than in 2009.
- In 2019, the US economy added 2.1 million jobs. Since the financial crisis, the economy has grown for ten years in a row. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent at the end of the year, the lowest level in 50 years (since 1969). However, in March 2020, 701,000 jobs were lost, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, bringing the United States’ longest stretch of job creation to an end.
- In 2019, the Federal Reserve reversed its policy course after three and a half years of normalization of interest rates. The target range for the fed funds rate was decreased by 0.25 percent at each of the three meetings in July, September, and October of 2019. The Fed lowers interest rates to the zero lower bound in March 2020 in response to the coronavirus crisis.
- The policy reaction to the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States is also examined in this paper. The growth in fiscal spending and loans in the United States will exceed 10% of GDP this year. In only one week, the Fed’s total balance sheet grew by more than half a trillion dollars.
See the PDF attachment with the full material for a complete and detailed examination.
What was the 2017 GDP?
The US economy is growing at a rate of 2.3 percent. As can be seen in the ranking of GDP of the 196 nations that we publish, the United States is the world’s leading economy in terms of GDP, with a total of $19,479,600 million in 2017.
What was the 2016 GDP?
In 2016, current-dollar GDP climbed 2.9 percent, or $529.0 billion, to $18,565.6 billion, compared to a 3.7 percent, or $643.5 billion, increase in 2015. (table 1 and table 3).
When did the United States have the highest GDP?
From 1960 to 2020, GDP in the United States averaged 7680.13 USD Billion, with a top of 21433.22 USD Billion in 2019 and a low of 543.30 USD Billion in 1960.
What was the debt of the United States in 2019?
The Treasury Department said this week that the United States’ total national debt had topped $30 trillion for the first time in history, an amount equal to roughly 130 percent of the country’s annual economic production, or GDP. The staggering sum places the United States among the world’s most indebted countries.
The federal debt has been huge and rising for decades, but the government’s response to the coronavirus outbreak, which included massive cash infusions into the U.S. economy, increased its expansion significantly.
Prior to the pandemic, the national debt was $22.7 trillion at the end of 2019. It had climbed by another $5 trillion to $27.7 trillion a year later. Since then, the country has added almost $2 trillion to its debt.
While the amount of $30 trillion has no meaning in and of itself, it may serve to draw attention to what some regard as a big worry for the country’s future health.
“Reaching $30 trillion in debt is a stark reminder of how high our debt is and how much we’ve been borrowing,” said Marc Goldwein, senior vice president and senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
How much debt does America have?
“Parties in power have built up the deficit through increased spending and poorer tax collection, regardless of political affiliation,” says Brian Rehling, head of Global Fixed Income Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
While it’s easy to suggest that a specific president or president’s administration led the federal deficit and national debt to move in a given direction, it’s crucial to remember that only Congress has the power to pass legislation that has the greatest impact on both figures.
Here’s how Congress responded during four major presidential administrations, and how their decisions affected the deficit and national debt.
Franklin D. Roosevelt
FDR served as the country’s last four-term president, guiding the country through a series of economic downturns. His administration spanned the Great Depression, and his flagship New Deal economic recovery plan aided America’s rebound from its financial abyss. The expense of World War II, however, contributed nearly $186 billion to the national debt between 1942 and 1945, making it the greatest substantial rise to the national debt. During FDR’s presidency, Congress added $236 billion to the national debt, a rise of 1,048 percent.
Ronald Reagan
Congress passed two major tax cuts during Reagan’s two administrations, the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 and the Tax Reform Act of 1986, both of which reduced government income. Between 1982 and 1990, Congress passed Acts that reduced revenue as a percentage of GDP by 1.7 percent, resulting in a revenue shortfall that contributed to the national debt rising 261 percent ($1.26 trillion) during his presidency, from $924.6 billion to $2.19 trillion.
Barack Obama
The Obama administration oversaw both the Great Recession and the recovery that followed the collapse of the mortgage market throughout his two years in office. The Economic Stimulus Act of 2009, which pumped $831 billion into the economy and helped many Americans avoid foreclosure, was passed by Congress in 2009. When passed by a strong bipartisan vote, congressional tax cuts added extra $858 billion to the national debt. During Obama’s two terms in office, Congress increased the national deficit by 74% and added $8.6 trillion to the national debt.
Donald Trump
Congress approved the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, slashing corporate and personal income tax rates, during his single term. The cuts, which were seen as a bonanza for the wealthiest Americans and corporations at the time of their passage, were expected by the Congressional Budget Office to increase the government deficit by $1.9 trillion at the time of their passing.
The federal deficit climbed from $665 billion in 2017 to $3.13 trillion in 2020, despite the Treasury Secretary’s prediction that the tax cuts would reduce it. Some of the rise was due to tax cuts, but the majority of the increase was due to successive Covid relief programs.
The public’s share of the federal debt has risen from $14.6 trillion in 2017 to more than $21 trillion in 2020. The national debt is made up of public debt and intragovernmental debt (amounts owed to federal retirement trust funds such as the Social Security Trust Fund). It refers to the amount of money owed by the United States to external debtors such as American banks and investors, corporations, people, state and municipal governments, the Federal Reserve, and foreign governments and international investors such as Japan and China. The money is borrowed in order to keep the United States running. Treasury banknotes, notes, and bonds are included. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), US savings bonds, and state and local government series securities are among the other holders of public debt.
“The national debt is growing at a rate it hasn’t seen in decades,” says James Cassel, chairman and co-founder of Cassel Salpeter, an investment bank. “This is the outcome of the basic principle of spending more money than you earn.” Cassel also points out that while both major political parties have spoken seriously about reducing the national debt at times, discussions and strategies have stopped.
When both sides pose discussing raising the debt ceiling each year, the national debt is more typically utilized as a bargaining chip. The United States would default on its debt obligations if the debt ceiling was not raised. As a result, Congress always votes to raise the debt ceiling (the maximum amount of money the US government may borrow), but only after parties have reached an agreement on other legislation.
How is the GDP of the United States calculated?
Gross domestic product (GDP) equals private consumption + gross private investment + government investment + government spending + (exports Minus imports).
GDP is usually computed using international standards by the country’s official statistical agency. GDP is calculated in the United States by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of the Commerce Department. The System of National Accounts, compiled in 1993 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), is the international standard for estimating GDP.