The U.S. economy is expected to grow at a slightly above-average rate in 2018, according to participants in the Chicago Fed’s annual Economic Outlook Symposium, with inflation rising modestly and the unemployment rate remaining low.
On December 1, 2017, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago presented its 31st annual Economic Outlook Symposium (EOS). The meeting drew approximately 100 economists and analysts from business, academia, and government. The forecasts for 2017 from the previous EOS are reviewed in this Chicago Fed Letter, followed by an analysis of the estimates for 2018 (see figure 1) and a summary of the presentations from the most recent EOS.
In the third quarter of 2017, the US economy entered its ninth year of boom. While the country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is at an all-time high, the rate of economic growth since the Great Recession ended in mid-2009 has been relatively slow. The annualized rate of real GDP growth in the 33 quarters following the second quarter of 2009 was 2.2 percent, just slightly higher than what is considered the long-term pace of growth for the US economy.
Some materials from the most recent EOS are now available.
Early in 2017, growth was hampered in big part by a dramatic decline in stocks, worth almost $62 billion in real terms, from the previous quarter; growth was hampered in large part by a dramatic drop in stockpiles, worth nearly $62 billion in real terms, from the previous quarter. The annualized rate of real GDP growth rose to 3.1 percent in the second quarter, owing to a little change in inventories from the previous quarter, which was no longer a drag on growth as it had been in the first. In the first half of the year, the annualized growth rate was 2.1 percent, which was quite close to the annualized rate since the expansion began. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma had a detrimental impact on growth in the third quarter. The petroleum and chemical sectors, which are heavily concentrated in Gulf Coast states, were particularly hard damaged. Floods and winds also prompted many people to evacuate their homes and automobiles, as well as shut down many southern ports. Despite the negative effects of the hurricanes on the economy, real GDP grew at a high annualized pace of 3.2 percent in the third quarter. The port disruption contributed to a 0.7 percent decrease in imports in the third quarter compared to the second. This decrease boosted net exports’ contribution to the annualized rate of real GDP growth in the third quarter (by 0.4 percentage points). In the fourth quarter and beyond, the need to replace and repair damaged homes, autos, and other property is also likely to have provided temporary support to growth.
What was the 2017 GDP?
The US economy is growing at a rate of 2.3 percent. As can be seen in the ranking of GDP of the 196 nations that we publish, the United States is the world’s leading economy in terms of GDP, with a total of $19,479,600 million in 2017.
What is the 2018 GDP growth rate in the United States?
From 1948 to 2021, the GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.14 percent, with a high of 13.40 percent in the fourth quarter of 1950 and a low of -9.10 percent in the second quarter of 2020.
What was the 2016 GDP growth rate?
In 2016, real GDP increased by 1.6 percent (from the 2015 annual level to the 2016 annual level), compared to 2.6 percent in 2015. (table 1).
What was the state of the US economy in 2017?
In 2017, the US economy gained traction, but growth slowed at the end of the year. According to the Commerce Department, the GDP increased by 2.3 percent last year. This is faster than the 1.5 percent growth rate in 2016, but slower than the 1.5 percent growth rate in 2015. It’s also less than the 3% target established by President Trump for his first term.
In 2016 and 2017, what was the GDP?
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ “third” estimate, real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017 (table 1). Real GDP climbed by 3.2 percent in the third quarter.
The “third” estimate released last month was based on less extensive source data than the “second” estimate presented today. The growth in real GDP was 2.5 percent in the second estimate. The overall picture of economic growth remained unchanged with this third estimate for the fourth quarter; personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment were revised up (see “Updates to GDP” on page 2).
In the fourth quarter, real gross domestic income (GDI) climbed by 0.9 percent, compared to 2.4 percent in the third. In the fourth quarter, the average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, climbed 1.9 percent, compared to a 2.8 percent gain in the third quarter (table 1). PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, state and local government expenditure, and federal government spending all contributed to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter, which was partly offset by a negative contribution from private inventory investment. Imports, which are deducted from GDP calculations, increased (table 2).
The fourth-quarter slowdown in real GDP growth was due to a drop in private inventory investment, which was partially offset by increases in PCE, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and federal government spending, as well as an increase in residential fixed investment. Imports, which are deducted from GDP calculations, increased.
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP climbed by 5.3 percent, or $253.5 billion, to $19,754.1 billion. GDP in current dollars climbed by 5.3 percent, or $250.6 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 2.5 percent, compared to 1.7 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 2.7 percent, compared to a 1.5 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 1.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.3 percent overall (appendix table A).
What was the gross domestic product in 2018?
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ “third” estimate, real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 (table 1). Real GDP climbed by 3.4 percent in the third quarter.
The most recent GDP estimate is based on more extensive source data than the “initial” estimate given last month. The growth in real GDP was first estimated to be 2.6 percent. The overall picture of economic growth has not changed with this estimate for the fourth quarter; personal consumption expenditures (PCE), state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment have all been revised lower; imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, have also been revised lower (see “Updates to GDP” on page 2).
In the fourth quarter, real gross domestic income (GDI) climbed by 1.7 percent, compared to 4.6 percent in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, climbed 1.9 percent, compared to a 4.0 percent gain in the third quarter (table 1).
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, and federal government spending all contributed to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter. Negative contributions from household fixed investment and state and local government spending partially offset these gains. Imports, which are deducted from GDP calculations, increased (table 2).
The fourth-quarter slowdown in real GDP growth was due to decreases in private inventory investment, PCE, and federal government spending, as well as a decrease in state and local government spending. An increase in exports and a speeding up of nonresidential fixed investment partially compensated these developments. Imports grew at a slower pace in the fourth quarter than in the third.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed by 4.1 percent, or $206.9 billion, to $20.87 trillion. GDP in current dollars climbed by 4.9 percent, or $246.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 1.7 percent, compared to 1.8 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 1.5 percent, compared to a 1.6 percent increase in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 1.8 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.6 percent overall.
PCE, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment were all revised down 0.4 percentage point in the fourth quarter, partially offset by a downward revision to imports. See the Technical Note for further information. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. See the “Additional Information” section below for more information on GDP updates.
In 2018, real GDP increased by 2.9 percent (from the 2017 annual level to the 2018 annual level), compared to a 2.2 percent gain in 2017. (table 1).
PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and state and local government expenditure all contributed to the increase in real GDP in 2018, which was partially offset by a minor negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are deducted from GDP calculations, increased (table 2).
The increase in real GDP between 2017 and 2018 was primarily due to increases in nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, federal government spending, exports, and PCE, as well as an increase in state and local government spending, which was partially offset by a decline in residential investment.
GDP in current dollars climbed 5.2 percent, or $1.01 trillion, to $20.49 trillion in 2018, compared to 4.2 percent, or $778.2 billion, in 2017. (table 1 and table 3).
In 2018, real GDP increased by 2.4 percent, compared to 2.3 percent in 2017. (table 1).
In 2018, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 2.2 percent, compared to 1.9 percent in 2017. (table 4). The PCE price index grew 2.0 percent, compared to 1.8 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 1.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.6 percent overall (table 4).
Real GDP climbed 3.0% from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018. This is compared to a 2.5 percent gain in 2017. In 2018, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 2.1 percent, compared to 1.9 percent in 2017. In 2018, real GDP increased by 2.7 percent, compared to 2.3 percent in 2017. (table 6).
In the fourth quarter, profits from current production (business profits adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption) fell $9.7 billion, compared to a rise of $78.2 billion in the third quarter.
Domestic financial firm profits fell $25.2 billion in the fourth quarter, compared to a $6.1 billion drop in the third quarter. Domestic nonfinancial corporations’ profits climbed by $13.6 billion, compared to a gain of $83.0 billion for financial corporations. Profits in the rest of the world climbed by $1.9 billion, compared to a $1.3 billion increase in the United States. Receipts climbed by $8.8 billion in the fourth quarter, while payments increased by $6.9 billion.
What is the US GDP forecast for 2021?
In addition to updated fourth-quarter projections, today’s announcement includes revised third-quarter 2021 wages and salaries, personal taxes, and government social insurance contributions, all based on new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and wages climbed by $306.8 billion in the third quarter, up $27.7 billion from the previous estimate. With the addition of this new statistics, real gross domestic income is now anticipated to have climbed 6.4 percent in the third quarter, a 0.6 percentage point gain over the prior estimate.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed by 5.7 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major components of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.1 percent (revised), or $2.10 trillion, to $23.00 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous forecast, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to a 1.2 percent gain. With food and energy prices excluded, the PCE price index grew 3.3 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Real GDP grew 5.6 (revised) percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a fall of 2.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 5.6 percent (revised), compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index grew 5.5 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, versus a 1.2 percent increase. The PCE price index grew 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
What is the highest US GDP ever?
From 1960 to 2020, GDP in the United States averaged 7680.13 USD Billion, with a top of 21433.22 USD Billion in 2019 and a low of 543.30 USD Billion in 1960.