If there is no increase in inflation (or if inflation is zero), the economy may go into deflation. Reduced pricing equals less production and lower pay, which pushes prices to fall even more, resulting in even lower wages, and so on.
What is the purpose of inflation?
When Inflation Is Beneficial When the economy isn’t operating at full capacity, which means there’s unsold labor or resources, inflation can theoretically assist boost output. More money means higher spending, which corresponds to more aggregated demand. As a result of increased demand, more production is required to supply that need.
Why isn’t there enough inflation?
If inflation is too low, consumers may postpone purchases in the hopes of lower pricing. As a result, dropping prices, sometimes known as ‘deflation,’ might lead to reduced expenditure. Businesses may respond by laying off employees or lowering pay, putting more downward pressure on demand and prices.
What happens if inflation occurs?
Inflation lowers your purchasing power by raising prices. Pensions, savings, and Treasury notes all lose value as a result of inflation. Real estate and collectibles, for example, frequently stay up with inflation. Loans with variable interest rates rise when inflation rises.
Why don’t we desire zero inflation?
Inflation has a variety of economic costs – uncertainty, decreased investment, and redistribution of wealth from savers to borrowers but, despite these costs, is zero inflation desirable?
Inflation is frequently targeted at roughly 2% by governments. (The UK CPI objective is 2% +/-.) There are good reasons to aim for 2% inflation rather than 0% inflation. The idea is that achieving 0% inflation will need slower economic development and result in deflationary problems (falling prices)
Potential problems of deflation/low inflation
- Debt’s true value is increasing. With low inflation, people find it more difficult to repay their debts than they anticipated they must spend a bigger percentage of their income on debt repayments, leaving less money for other purposes.
- Real interest rates are rising. Whether we like it or not, falling inflation raises real interest rates. Rising real interest rates make borrowing and investing less appealing, encouraging people to save. If the economy is in a slump, a rise in real interest rates could make monetary policy less effective at promoting growth.
- Purchase at a later date. Falling prices may motivate customers to put off purchasing pricey luxury products for a year, believing that prices would be lower.
- Inflationary pressures are a sign of slowing economy. Inflation would normally be moderate during a normal period of economic expansion (2 percent ). If inflation has dropped to 0%, it indicates that there is strong price pressure to promote spending and that the recovery is weak.
- Prices and wages are more difficult to modify. When inflation reaches 2 percent, relative prices and salaries are easier to adapt because firms can freeze pay and prices – effectively a 2 percent drop in real terms. However, if inflation is zero, a company would have to decrease nominal pay by 2% – this is far more difficult psychologically because people oppose wage cuts more than they accept a nominal freeze. If businesses are unable to adjust wages, real wage unemployment may result.
Evaluation
There are several reasons for the absence of inflation. The drop in UK inflation in 2015 was attributed to temporary short-term factors such as lower oil and gasoline prices. These transient circumstances are unlikely to persist and have been reversed. The focus should be on underlying inflationary pressures core inflation, which includes volatile food and oil costs. Other inflation gauges, such as the RPI, were 1 percent (even though RPI is not the same as core inflation.) In that situation, inflation fell during a period of modest economic recovery. Although inflation has decreased, the economy has not entered a state of recession. In fact, the exact reverse is true.
Inflation was near to zero in several southern Eurozone economies from 2012 to 2015, although this was due to decreased demand, austerity, and attempts to re-establish competitiveness, which resulted in lower rates of economic growth and more unemployment.
It all depends on what kind of deflation you’re talking about. Real incomes could be boosted by falling prices. One of the most common concerns about deflation is that it reduces consumer spending. However, as the price of basic needs such as gasoline and food falls, consumers’ discretionary income/spending power rises, potentially leading to increased expenditure in the near term.
Wages that are realistic. Falling real earnings have been a trend of recent years, with inflation outpacing nominal wage growth. Because nominal wage growth is still low, the decrease in inflation will make people feel better about themselves and may promote spending. It is critical for economic growth to stop the decline in real wages.
Expectations for the future. Some economists believe that the decline in UK inflation is mostly due to temporary factors, while others are concerned that the ultra-low inflation may feed into persistently low inflation expectations, resulting in zero wage growth and sustained deflationary forces. This is the main source of anxiety about a 0% inflation rate.
Do we have a plan to combat deflation? There is a belief that we will be able to overcome any deflation or disinflation. However, Japan’s history demonstrates that once deflation has set in, it can be quite difficult to reverse. Reducing inflation above target is very simple; combating deflation, on the other hand, is more of a mystery.
Finances of the government In the short term, the decrease in inflation is beneficial to the government. Index-linked benefits will rise at a slower rate than predicted, reducing the UK government’s benefit bill. This might save the government a significant amount of money, reducing the deficit and freeing up funds for pre-election tax cuts.
Low inflation, on the other hand, may result in decreased government tax collections. For example, the VAT (percentage) on items will not rise as much as anticipated. Low wage growth will also reduce tax revenue.
Consumers are frequently pleased when there is little inflation. They will benefit from lower pricing and the feeling of having more money to spend. This ‘feel good’ component may stimulate increased confidence, which could lead to increased investment, spending, and growth. Low inflation could be enabling in disguise in the current context.
However, there is a real risk that if we get stuck in a time of ultra-low inflation/deflation, all of the difficulties associated with deflation would become more visible and begin to stifle regular economic growth.
Is it possible to have inflation without growth?
Readers’ Question: Is it possible to build the economy without increasing the money supply? Is it possible to grow with no inflation?
With zero inflation, economic growth is possible. This could happen if productivity increases, resulting in cheaper costs and higher output at the same time. Take, for example, a specific economic sector, such as IT / Computers. This industry has demonstrated that output can increase while prices decline. The rapid advancement of technology is a crucial component in this industry.
In theory, we might have economic growth with zero or even negative inflation if this IT industry was replicated across the board.
In theory, you could have economic growth without increasing the money supply if prices were falling but output was increasing.
We can see the Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve LRAS migrating to the right from a simple diagrammatic standpoint.
An AD/AS diagram depicting increased AD and AS resulting in economic growth at a constant price level.
How Practical is the idea of Economic Growth and zero Inflation?
1. For starters, the type of productivity gain seen in the computer and information technology industries is unlikely to be repeated in other sectors of the economy, particularly the service sector. Improved microchips can boost computer efficiency, but it’s difficult to observe the same boost from cutting hair or selling bananas.
2. People are accustomed to low inflation. To see sustained periods of economic growth with zero inflation, we must look back to the eighteenth century (or negative inflation). People have come to expect little inflation in the twentieth century. It tends to happen because we expect modest inflation. Positive economic growth with zero inflation are extremely rare.
3. Wages are stuck in a downward spiral. Even when the economy is in a slump and there is a big production gap, inflation tends to remain stubbornly positive. Nominal wage decreases are being resisted by workers. People expect tiny increases in prices and wages, so they continue to climb in little increments.
4. It’s easier to adjust prices and wages. It is claimed that 2 percent inflation makes it easier for pricing and salaries to adjust. If certain prices or wages must fall in real terms, they can remain at 0%. This nominal price / salary freeze is easier to swallow psychologically than lowering nominal earnings.
5. Effects of deflation and zero inflation on spending and debt. Many of the difficulties connected with deflation are likely to be exacerbated by zero inflation. If you expect modest inflation of 2% to gradually diminish the value of your obligations / mortgage, zero inflation would boost your real debt burden more than predicted. Consumer spending may decline during this period of zero inflation, resulting in negative economic growth.
6. At zero inflation, real interest rates may be higher than desired.
Empirical evidence
Inflation has been consistent in the United States since 1945. The only instance when there was no inflation was when there was a recession or low growth.
For much of the 1990s and 2000s, Japan experienced zero inflation, but it grew at a significantly slower pace than typical.
What are the advantages of a low inflation rate?
Almost every economist recommends keeping inflation low. Low inflation promotes economic stability, which fosters saving, investment, and economic growth while also assisting in the preservation of international competitiveness.
Governments normally aim for a rate of inflation of around 2%. This moderate but low rate of inflation is thought to be the optimal compromise between avoiding inflation costs while also avoiding deflationary costs (when prices fall)
Benefits of low inflation
To begin with, if inflation is low and stable, businesses will be more confident and hopeful about investing, resulting in increased productive capacity and future greater rates of economic growth.
There could be an economic boom if inflation is allowed to rise due to permissive monetary policy, but if this economic growth is above the long run average rate of growth, it is likely to be unsustainable, and the bubble will be followed by a crash (recession)
After the Lawson boom of the late 1980s, this happened in the UK in 1991. As a result, keeping inflation low will assist the economy avoid cyclical oscillations, which can lead to negative growth and unemployment.
If UK inflation is higher than elsewhere, UK goods will become uncompetitive, resulting in a drop in exports and possibly a worsening of the current account of the balance of payments. Low inflation and low production costs allow a country to remain competitive over time, enhancing exports and competitiveness.
Inflationary expenses include menu costs, which are the costs of updating price lists. When inflation is low, the costs of updating price lists and searching around for the best deals are reduced.
How to achieve low inflation
- Policy monetary. The Central Bank can boost interest rates if inflation exceeds its target. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs, restrict lending, and lower consumer expenditure. This decreases inflationary pressure while also moderating economic growth.
- Control the supply of money. Monetarists emphasize regulating the money supply because they believe there is a clear link between money supply increase and inflation. See also: Why does an increase in the money supply produce inflation?
- Budgetary policy. If inflation is high, the government can use tight fiscal policy to minimize inflationary pressures (e.g. higher income tax will reduce consumer spending). Inflation is rarely controlled through fiscal policy.
- Productivity growth/supply-side policies Supply-side strategies can lessen some inflationary pressures in the long run. For example, powerful labor unions were criticised in the 1970s for being able to raise salaries, resulting in wage pull inflation. Wage growth has been lower and inflation has been lower as a result of weaker unions.
- Commodity prices are low. Some inflationary forces are beyond the Central Bank’s or government’s control. Cost-push inflation is virtually always a result of rising oil costs, and it’s a difficult problem to tackle.
Problems of achieving low inflation
If a central bank raises interest rates to combat inflation, aggregate demand will decline, economic growth would slow, and a recession and more unemployment may occur.
The Conservative administration, for example, hiked interest rates and adopted a tight budgetary policy in the early 1980s. This cut inflation, but it also contributed to the devastating recession of 1981, which resulted in 3 million people losing their jobs.
Monetarists, on the other hand, believe that inflation may be minimized without compromising other macroeconomic goals. This is because they believe that the Long Run Aggregate Supply is inelastic, and that any decrease in AD will only result in a brief drop in Real GDP, with the economy returning to full employment within a short period.
Can inflation be too low?
Since the financial crisis of 2008, global inflation rates have been low, but some economists claim that this has resulted in sluggish economic growth in the Eurozone and elsewhere.
Japan’s experience in the 1990s demonstrated that extremely low inflation can lead to a slew of significant economic issues. Inflation was quite low in the 1990s and 2000s, but Japan’s GDP was well below its long-term norm, and unemployment was rising. Rising unemployment has a number of negative consequences, including rising inequality, more government borrowing, and an increase in social problems. Even if it conflicts with increased inflation, economic expansion is perhaps a more significant goal in this scenario.
Economists have expressed concerned about the Eurozone’s exceptionally low inflation rates from 2010 to 2017. Deflation has occurred in countries such as Greece and Spain, but unemployment rates have risen to over 25%.
Low inflation usually provides a number of advantages that assist the economy perform better, such as greater investment.
In other cases, though, keeping inflation low may be detrimental to the economy. Maintaining the inflation target in the face of a supply-side shock to the economy could result in higher unemployment and slower development, both of which are undesirable outcomes. As a result, the government should aim for low inflation while being flexible if this looks to be unsuited in the current economic context.
Advantages of Inflation
- Deflation has the potential to be exceedingly harmful to the economy, as it might result in fewer consumer spending and growth. When prices are falling, for example, buyers are urged to put off purchasing in the hopes of a lower price in the future.
- The real worth of debt is reduced when inflation is moderate. In a deflationary environment, the real value of debt rises, putting a strain on discretionary incomes.
- Inflation rates that are moderate allow prices to adjust and goods to reach their true value.
- Wage inflation at a moderate rate allows relative wages to adjust. Wages are stuck in a downward spiral. Firms can effectively freeze pay raises for less productive workers with moderate inflation, effectively giving them a real pay cut.
- Inflation rates that are moderate are indicative of a thriving economy. Inflation is frequently associated with economic growth.
Disadvantages of Inflation
- Inflationary rates create uncertainty and confusion, which leads to less investment. It is said that countries with continuously high inflation have poorer investment and economic growth rates.
- Increased inflation reduces international competitiveness, resulting in less exports and a worsening current account balance of payments. This is considerably more troublesome with a fixed exchange rate, such as the Euro, because countries do not have the option of devaluation.
- Inflation can lower the real worth of investments, which can be especially detrimental to elderly persons who rely on their assets. It is, however, dependent on whether interest rates are higher than inflation.
- The real value of government bonds will be reduced by inflation. To compensate, investors will demand higher bond rates, raising the cost of debt interest payments.
- Hyperinflation has the potential to ruin an economy. If inflation becomes out of control, it can lead to a vicious cycle in which rising inflation leads to higher inflation expectations, which leads to further higher prices. Hyperinflation can wipe out middle-class savings and transfer wealth and income to people with debt, assets, and real estate.
- Reduced inflation costs. Governments/Central Banks must implement a deflationary fiscal/monetary policy to restore price stability. This, however, results in weaker aggregate demand and, in many cases, a recession. Reduced inflation comes at a cost: unemployment, at least in the short term.
When weighing the benefits and drawbacks of inflation, it’s vital to assess the sort of inflation at hand.
- It’s possible that cost-push inflation is simply a blip on the radar (e.g. due to raising taxes). As a result, this is a one-time issue that isn’t as significant as deep-seated inflation (e.g. due to wage inflation and high inflation expectations)
- Cost-push inflation, on the other hand, tends to lower living standards (short-run aggregate supply is shifted left). Cost-push inflation is also difficult to manage because a central bank cannot simultaneously cut inflation and boost economic growth.
- It also depends on whether or not inflation is expected. Many people, particularly savers, are more likely to lose out if inflation is significantly greater than expected.
What effect does inflation have on the economy?
- Inflation, or the gradual increase in the price of goods and services over time, has a variety of positive and negative consequences.
- Inflation reduces purchasing power, or the amount of something that can be bought with money.
- Because inflation reduces the purchasing power of currency, customers are encouraged to spend and store up on products that depreciate more slowly.