With the enactment of the New Deal’s National Industrial Recovery Act in 1933, the first federal minimum wage was established. The ultra-right Supreme Court of the time quickly declared it unconstitutional. In 1936, President Franklin D. Roosevelt ran for reelection on the promise of continuing to fight for a federal minimum wage. In contrast, the Republican platform that year did not explicitly call for one, but it did piously concede that individual states might establish minimum wages for women and children.
Roosevelt’s landslide victory so alarmed conservative Justice Owen Roberts that he reread the Constitution and discovered that the federal government does have the authority to set a minimum wage. In a 1937 minimum-wage dispute, he switched sides, paving the stage for the passage of the Fair Labor Standards Act in 1938.
The minimum wage is fixed at 25 cents per hour under the Fair Labor Standards Act. That’s around $4.60 now, adjusted for inflation. This was a compromise with Southern senators: the original version of the law called for a minimum wage of 40 cents per hour, or about $7.37 in today’s dollars.
By 1945, the minimum wage had barely risen to 40 cents. It was nearly doubled when President Harry Truman signed a law in early 1950 boosting it to 75 cents, which is now about $8.25 after inflation.
It’s unclear what will happen next, but the odds are stacked against any big minimum-wage increases. The Senate parliamentarian determined that minimum-wage legislation could not be passed through the budget reconciliation process, which only requires 50 votes, and the Biden administration has declined to defy the parliamentarian’s decision. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has stated that the two versions would not be harmonized in a conference committee. Instead, the Senate bill will be passed by the House and sent to President Joe Biden for signature.
Democrats can now try to override a GOP filibuster with a stand-alone raise in regular order, but it would take all of the Democratic senators and ten Republicans, which is unlikely. They could also modify Senate rules to eliminate the filibuster, which appears to be a long shot.
For the time being, it looks that the federal government has abandoned America’s lowest-paid workers once again. But let’s not fool ourselves into thinking this isn’t a decision we’re making. We can choose to return to a different, fairer, and better country whenever we desire.
With inflation, what would the minimum wage be?
Consumer prices rose 5.3 percent in August compared to the previous year, causing some anxiety as the economy recovers from the pandemic. Food prices at home increased by 3%, while food prices away from home (i.e. restaurants) increased by 4.7 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest release this week. Rents and energy prices both increased by roughly 9%.
One point of worry for employers and employees in the United States is that activists frequently exploit inflation data to support their campaign for a $15 minimum wage, or even a higher salary of $23 per hour, despite the fact that study shows such steep rises will destroy millions of jobs.
Remember, if we kept up with inflation, the minimum wage would be $23/hr right now. $15 is a good middle ground. #RaiseTheWagehttps://t.co/44l6Rqln0F
Despite the fact that inflation has risen dramatically in the last year, the so-called “The Fight for $15” is still not based on a consumer price index. If the 2009 federal minimum wage increase to $7.25 per hour were indexed to climb with inflation, it would equal $9.22 today, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data up to August 2021.
If the minimum wage were to be adjusted to the level in 1990, it would be $7.17 now. No matter how you slice it, these data don’t even come close to, let alone support, the $23 hourly rate proposed by the union-backed One Fair Wage.
Indeed, the $15 minimum wage goal that several states and municipalities have already enacted has no precedence in history. An organizing director for the Service Employees International Union’s Fight for $15 campaign joked about the absence of genuine analysis informing their main policy goal at one meeting, saying: “We decided that $10 was too low and $20 was too much, so we settled on $15.”
Unfortunately, these draconian minimum wage targets, which lack economic justification, will wreak havoc on firms and employees as they try to recover from the pandemic. According to the impartial Congressional Budget Office, the Raise the Wage Act of 2021, which proposes a $15 minimum wage nationwide, may cost the country up to 2.7 million jobs. According to economists from Miami and Trinity Universities’ industry and state-level analyses, the hospitality and restaurant industries would bear the brunt of these effects. Increases above the $15 minimum wage would have an even bigger negative impact on employer costs, and could result in the loss of many more employment.
In 2022, how would the minimum wage be adjusted for inflation?
President Biden stated at his State of the Union address that bringing inflation under control was a primary goal, and he told businesses, “Not your wages, but your costs.” However, many firms across the country have not responded to current health or economic problems by decreasing salaries. And, in certain regions of the country, salaries are only going higher by law, as many municipal minimum wage legislation increase their rates in response to changes in the consumer price index (CPI). We present a projection of what businesses can expect during these difficult economic times, not an economic prognosis, so they can budget appropriately in the coming months and prepare for near-term (July 1) and future (January 1, 2023) necessary wage rate increases.
Running a business has been anything but simple during COVID-19. We’ve all heard about the “Great Resignation” and how it led to “wageflation” ( “According to Forbes, “a sudden, unexpected, and instantaneous surge in pay based on unique market conditions”). With the addition of inflation, some businesses may find themselves in an even more vulnerable position. Although the mid-year minimum wage increases (July 1, 2022) are still four months away, some jurisdictions have already announced their rates; the differences are notable and demonstrate the impact rising inflation can have on wages in jurisdictions that adjust their minimum wage in response to changes in the CPI.
The minimum wage in both the City of Santa Fe and the County of Santa Fe was CPI-adjusted from $12.32 to $12.95 per hour on March 1, 2022, an increase of just over 5%. The minimum wage in the District of Columbia will increase from $15.20 to $16.10 per hour on July 1, 2022, representing a nearly 6% increase. The greatest stated increase to date belongs to the City of Los Angeles, California, where the yearly adjusted minimum wage will rise from $15.00 to $16.04 per hour on July 1, 2022, a nearly 7% increase.
Factors that may impact why minimum wage CPI adjustments varies from one location to another range from the apparent to the obscure, and include, for example:
- The minimum pay rate prior to the change. The higher the existing minimum wage, the more likely there is to be a raise “Sticker Shock” is a rate that has been changed.
- The adjustment’s lookback period, as well as inflation throughout that time. There is a gap between the end of the lookback period and the start of the adjusted wage rate, but depending on how much time passes between these dates and how inflation performs in the interim, the rate bump could exceed inflation at the time the rate goes into effect or throughout the year it is in effect; of course, during the pre-adjustment period, the opposite could be true, with other items like food and consumer goods prices rising while the adjusted wage rate remains in effect; of course, during the pre-adjustment
- Whether CPI-U (Consumers) or CPI-W (Workers) is used in the adjustment (Workers). These are various inflation rates, which helps to explain why two cities with the same pre-adjustment minimum wage may have different adjusted rates.
- The adjustment’s working area. To be competitive, a smaller city can go beyond its borders and apply the CPI index to a much larger metropolis further away.
- Whether or not the law sets a limit on the annual rise. This could happen in general or by employing a different rate of inflation than the actual rate of inflation “whichever is less” standard (i.e., the rate of inflation or X percent, whichever is less).
Numerous further municipal mid-year rate adjustments will occur throughout California on July 1, 2022, so businesses should plan for a potential “wagequake” across the state. However, tremors may not be limited to the West Coast, as municipal minimum wage rates in the Midwest (Illinois) and the Mid-Atlantic (Maryland) will also alter. While concerns about near-term wage changes are primarily local, firms across the country should prepare for the potential that inflation does not moderate sufficiently through 2022, resulting in state-level rate increases on January 1, 2023. (or December 31, 2022, in New York). This could effect both exempt and non-exempt employees if it happens. States frequently add a multiplier to the minimum wage to determine the minimum salary required for the executive, administrative, or professional exemption to apply; a state-law inside sales exemption could face a similar minimum wage multiplication scenario. In addition, the state may annually increase the exemption’s minimum hourly rate for specified hourly professionals (or medical in California).
Although we don’t have a crystal ball to look into the future, we may forecast that things will become more difficult, just like wage and hour regulations.
What would the minimum wage be if productivity was included in?
The federal minimum wage in the United States has stayed unchanged at $7.25 per hour for the past 12 years, the longest period since it was established in 1938. Another telling statistic shows how the minimum wage, which was enacted by Congress after the Great Depression to ensure that Americans were adequately compensated for their labor, has fallen behind the times.
Even while workers have become more productive, helping to boost corporate earnings, the stock market, and CEO remuneration to new highs, their pay has remained steady or even decreased when inflation is taken into account. According to one economist, if the minimum wage had kept pace with increases in productivity over the last 50 years, it would be roughly $26 an hour today, or more than $50,000 in yearly income.
In a recent blog post, Dean Baker, senior economist at the left-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research, said, “That may sound rather ridiculous, but that’s roughly what the minimum wage would be now if it had kept pace with productivity growth since its value peaked in 1968.”
Why should the minimum wage not be increased?
Since 2009, the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour has remained unchanged. Increasing it would increase most low-wage employees’ earnings and family income, pulling some families out of povertybut it would also cause other low-wage workers to lose their jobs, and their family income would fall.
The Budgetary Consequences of the Raise the Wage Act of 2021 (S. 53), which CBO evaluated in The Budgetary Effects of the Raise the Wage Act of 2021, allows users to study the effects of policies that would raise the federal minimum wage. Users can also build their own policy options to see how different ways to increasing the minimum wage would influence earnings, employment, family income, and poverty.
What is the current rate of inflation?
The US Inflation Rate is the percentage increase in the price of a selected basket of goods and services purchased in the US over a year. The US Federal Reserve uses inflation as one of the indicators to assess the economy’s health. The Federal Reserve has set a target of 2% inflation for the US economy since 2012, and if inflation does not fall within that range, it may adjust monetary policy. During the recession of the early 1980s, inflation was particularly noticeable. Inflation rates reached 14.93 percent, prompting Paul Volcker’s Federal Reserve to adopt drastic measures.
The current rate of inflation in the United States is 7.87 percent, up from 7.48 percent last month and 1.68 percent a year ago.
This is greater than the 3.24 percent long-term average.
What exactly is wage inflation?
Pay push inflation refers to an increase in the cost of products and services as a result of wage increases. Employers must raise the prices they charge for the goods and services they deliver to sustain corporate profits after pay increases. The overall increase in the cost of products and services has a cyclic effect on pay increases; as the total cost of goods and services rises, greater salaries will be required to compensate for rising consumer goods prices.
Does the minimum wage cause inflation?
Raising the minimum wage, in theory, forces business owners to raise the pricing of their goods or services, causing inflation. In actuality, the link between rising wages and inflation is more complicated: wages account for only a portion of the total cost of a product or service that customers pay for.
Is the United Kingdom’s minimum wage linked to inflation?
Since their inception in the United Kingdom, the national minimum and living wages have risen every year. However, this does not imply that they have kept up with rising living costs.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced an increase in the national living and minimum wages in his Autumn Budget, declaring that the higher rates “guarantee we’re making work pay and maintains us on track to reach our commitment to abolish low pay by the end of this Parliament.”
Every country in the globe has its own system for determining the minimum wage, as well as the amounts that should be paid to different age groups.
Some countries have a minimum pay per hour, whereas others have a minimum wage per working day, week, or month. Many countries still do not have any kind of minimum wage at all.
In general, the national minimum wage in this country rises by roughly 4% per year, in accordance with inflation rates. If the minimum wage does not keep pace with inflation, people will grow poorer despite earning the same amount of money.
Naturally, different countries have varying living costs, inflation rates, and average wages. But, in the broader scheme of things, how does the United Kingdom fare? And who has the world’s highest minimum wage?
In Canada, has the minimum wage kept up with inflation?
Correction: The original item on January 21, 2020 stated that the hourly wage was $24. On March 16, 2022, a spreadsheet error was discovered and repaired. The data in this page have been revised throughout. For a complete explanation, see Dean Baker’s post.
Until 1968, the minimum wage not only kept pace with inflation, but it also grew in lockstep with productivity. The argument is simple: we anticipate that salaries will rise in lockstep with productivity growth. The minimum wage should rise in tandem with productivity in order for low-paid workers to benefit from the overall improvement in society’s living standards.
It’s crucial to understand the difference between inflation and productivity. If the minimum wage advances in lockstep with inflation, we can be sure that minimum wage people will be able to buy the same quantity of goods and services over time, insulating them from rising prices. If it rises with productivity, however, it means that minimum wage earners will be able to buy more goods and services over time as employees are able to generate more products and services per hour.
While the national minimum wage rose nearly in lockstep with productivity growth from 1938 to 1968, it has not kept up with inflation in the more than five decades since then. If the minimum wage had risen in lockstep with productivity growth since 1968, it would now be about $21.50 an hour, as illustrated in the graph below.