In addition to updated fourth-quarter projections, today’s announcement includes revised third-quarter 2021 wages and salaries, personal taxes, and government social insurance contributions, all based on new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and wages climbed by $306.8 billion in the third quarter, up $27.7 billion from the previous estimate. With the addition of this new statistics, real gross domestic income is now anticipated to have climbed 6.4 percent in the third quarter, a 0.6 percentage point gain over the prior estimate.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed by 5.7 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major components of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.1 percent (revised), or $2.10 trillion, to $23.00 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous forecast, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to a 1.2 percent gain. With food and energy prices excluded, the PCE price index grew 3.3 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Real GDP grew 5.6 (revised) percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a fall of 2.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 5.6 percent (revised), compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index grew 5.5 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, versus a 1.2 percent increase. The PCE price index grew 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Gross Domestic Product
Each year and quarter, the BEA calculates the country’s GDP. Every month, however, new GDP figures are released. Why? Because the BEA estimates GDP three times per quarter. The advance estimate is an early look based on the greatest information available at the time, and it comes roughly a month after the quarter ends. The second and third estimates each include additional source data that was not accessible the month before, resulting in increased accuracy.
More to know
The gross domestic product of the United States is in the trillions of dollars. The term “GDP” is frequently used to refer to a percentage figure. This is the rate at which real GDP changed from the prior quarter or year. To compare different periods, “real” or “chained” GDP data have been adjusted to exclude the impacts of inflation over time.
Estimates of “current-dollar” or “nominal” GDP are based on market prices during the measurement period.
Seasonal adjustments are made to GDP data to exclude the influence of yearly trends like winter weather, holidays, and industry output schedules. This guarantees that the remaining fluctuations in GDP better represent genuine economic activity patterns. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also publishes GDP numbers that are not seasonally adjusted.
Unless otherwise noted, quarterly GDP data are given at annual rates for simplicity of comparison.
GDP by State
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) calculates the value of products and services produced in each state and the District of Columbia on a quarterly and annual basis. The data includes breakdowns of the contributions of various industries to each of these economies.
GDP by County, Metro, and Other Areas
Annual GDP statistics are given for counties, metropolitan areas, and a few other statistical areas. They include the contributions of 34 industries to the local economy. In December 2019, the BEA released its first official GDP statistics for the nation’s 3,113 counties and county equivalents.
GDP for U.S. Territories
Annual GDP figures, including industry contributions, are issued for American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, and the United States Virgin Islands.
GDP by Industry
These figures, which are published quarterly and annually, quantify each industry’s performance and contributions to the general economy, often known as “value added.” The data also includes gross output, employee compensation, gross operating surplus, and taxes for each industry.
When do economic indicators come out?
The Federal Reserve publishes the “Current Economic Conditions” report, sometimes known as the Beige Book, eight times a year. Anecdotal information on current economic conditions in each Federal Reserve Bank’s District is gathered through reports from Bank and Branch directors, as well as interviews with significant business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. This information is summarized in the Beige Book by District and Sector.
The United States Census Bureau has released a study that aims to provide wide and timely assessments of combined changes in domestic retail, wholesale, and manufacturing activity. The data for the report comes from three different surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey and the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey will have been issued by the time this report is published, leaving only the Monthly Retail Trade Survey as the only new piece of data in the report.
The US Census Bureau publishes estimates of total new construction value for the following categories each month: residential, private nonresidential, farm, regulated investor-owned utilities, and public. Housing starts and sales data from the US Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction are used to estimate the cost of new single-family houses being built each month. Private nonresidential construction is based on data from McGraw-Hill Construction and a months-long “Construction Progress Reporting Survey.”
On the final Tuesday of each month, at 10:00 a.m., the Consumer Board releases its index.
At 10:00 a.m. on the second and fourth Fridays of each month, the University of Michigan distributes a preliminary survey and a final survey.
The Conference Board’s Indices are based on a monthly survey of 5,000 households in the United States.
Five questions about the state of the economy are included in the survey:
The Conference Board publishes three indices: I Consumer Confidence, which is based on replies to the five questions above; (ii) Present Situation Index, which is based on responses to questions 1 and 3; and (iii) Expectations Index, which is based on questions 2, 4, and 5.
The Consumer Sentiment Index at the University of Michigan is based on telephone household interviews.
The data, which was released by the Federal Reserve, shows the amount of outstanding consumer debt.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is compiled by the US Department of Labor, is a measure of the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households over time and serves as an inflation indicator.
The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders survey, released by the United States Bureau of Census, is currently the only survey that offers broad-based monthly statistical data on the economic circumstances in the domestic manufacturing sector. Its purpose is to assess existing industrial activities as well as forecast future production obligations. The value of shipments represents the value of items delivered by domestic producers throughout the month. Estimates of new orders are used as a predictor of future production commitments, and they indicate the current shipments (sales) value of new orders received during the month, minus cancellations.
The Current Population Survey (household survey) and the Current Employment Statistics Survey are two surveys compiled by the US Department of Labor (establishment survey). The household survey collects data on labor force participation, employment, and unemployment. The establishment survey collects data on nonfarm payroll workers’ employment, hours, and incomes. The report serves as a general gauge of economic activity and inflation.
The following are the tentative dates for the Federal Open Market Committee meetings in 2022:
The FOMC meets eight times a year on a regular basis. The Committee examines economic and financial conditions, decides the appropriate monetary policy stance, and assesses the risks to its long-term goals of price stability and sustained economic growth at these sessions. The Federal Funds Rate is set by the FOMC at each meeting.
The minutes of each Federal Open Market Committee meeting are released around three weeks after the meeting.
The minutes frequently contain hints about the FOMC’s future rate policy.
GDP is the market value of goods and services produced in the United States by labor and property.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the United States Department of Commerce publishes GDP quarterly.
The National Association of Realtors publishes housing sales data that is based on transaction closings in a given month and indicates the total amount of sales for a year assuming a steady rate of sales.
Single-family homes, condominiums, and co-ops are all available for purchase.
The Census Bureau and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development collaborated to release this report.
The report includes information on the number of new single-family houses sold, the number of new single-family houses for sale, and the median and average sales prices of new homes sold.
Manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities are all covered by the Federal Reserve’s monthly index of industrial production, as well as associated capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates.
The production index calculates real output as a percentage of real output in a base year, which is presently 2002. The capacity index, which is a forecast of long-term potential output, is also given as a percentage of 2002 output. Private trade organisations and government entities provided data for the index.
At 10:00 a.m. on the first business day of each month, the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is released.
At 10:00 a.m. on the third business day of each month, the ISM Services Report On Business is released.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), a professional group for supply management, publishes two reports monthly: the Manufacturing ISM and the Services ISM.
The statistics are based on monthly polls of about 400 businesses to assess whether the economy is growing or shrinking.
Changes in production, new orders, new export orders, imports, employment, stocks, prices, lead-times, and the timeliness of supplier deliveries in their organizations are among the items considered in the survey when comparing the current month to the previous month.
The United States Department of Labor provides data on initial jobless claims, which counts the number of people who have applied for state unemployment benefits.
The Philadelphia Fed usually releases its monthly report at 10:00 a.m. on the third Thursday of the month. For the current month, the Chicago PMI is usually released on the final working day of the month.
Reports on economic activity in their respective regions are released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago.
The reports are regarded as good forerunners of the remainder of the United States’ economic conditions.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the United States Department of Commerce issued data on changes in average personal income and expenditures.
Individuals’ personal income is the total amount of money they earn from all sources. Consumer purchases of durable and nondurable products, as well as services, are included in personal outlays. The Implicit Price Deflator, also known as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator, is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and is included in this report.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index (PPI) is a collection of indexes that track the average change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services over time.
PPIs are used to track price changes from the seller’s perspective.
The US Department of Labor has produced data that shows the link between real output and the labor time (cost) required to produce it.
In collaboration with the US Department of Housing and Urban Development, the US Census Bureau News released this report. The data shows the monthly changes in housing starts, building permits issued, and dwellings finished.
The Annual Revision of Monthly Retail and Food Services report is published by the United States Census Bureau to give national estimates of annual and monthly sales for establishments classified in the retail trade and food services industries.
The data for wholesale inventories comes from a survey done by the US Census Bureau to give national estimates of monthly sales, end-of-month inventories, and inventory-to-sales ratios by type of business for wholesale enterprises in the US.
Other agencies use the data for economic study, including the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which uses the figures as an input to estimate gross domestic product sales and inventories.
What is the GDP of the United States in 2022?
According to our econometric models, the US GDP will trend around 22790.00 USD Billion in 2022 and 23420.00 USD Billion in 2023 in the long run.
Is a higher or lower GDP preferable?
- The gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary worth of all products and services exchanged in a given economy.
- GDP growth signifies economic strength, whereas GDP decline indicates economic weakness.
- When GDP is derived through economic devastation, such as a car accident or a natural disaster, rather than truly productive activity, it can provide misleading information.
- By integrating more variables in the calculation, the Genuine Progress Indicator aims to enhance GDP.
How long would it take for a 2.5 percent-growing economy to double in size?
For instance, if an economy grows at 1% per year, it will take 70 / 1 = 70 years for the economy to double in size. If a country’s economy grows at 2% each year, it will take 70 / 2 = 35 years for it to double in size.
How often is the US economy’s GDP reported?
Defined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The sum is usually given in dollars, with the growth rate expressed as a percentage change from one period to the next (where the time period is typically quarterly or yearly). The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the United States publishes this number on a quarterly basis.
Who determines GDP?
To collect and compile the data needed to calculate the GDP and other statistics, the Central Statistics Office collaborates with numerous federal and state government agencies and departments. The Price Monitoring Cell at the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, for example, collects and calibrates data points pertaining to manufacturing, crop yields, and commodities, which are used to calculate the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Why are GDP numbers less interesting to release?
Why are investors less interested in the announcement of GDP numbers than other economic indicators? Because GDP numbers are provided after other economic indicators, they are often overlooked.