The gross domestic product (GDP) is a quarterly economic measure that shows how much production a country produces. In the two months leading up to the release of the final number, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in the United States produces two estimates of quarterly GDP, known as advance and preliminary estimates:
- The advance estimate of GDP is released in the first month after each quarter and is based on estimates of economic activity for a portion of the quarter (often two of the three months).
- The preliminary estimate is released the month after the advance estimate, and it accounts for modifications to economic data from the months used to produce the advance estimate, as well as new data.
We looked at the pattern of payroll employment data adjustments in a recent Economic Synopses essay. We discovered that the sign of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ revision to payroll employment is more likely to be positive (revised up) during expansions and negative (revised down) during recessions. We suggested that this presented a problem for policymakers who relied on the timely publication of economic indicators to make proper policy decisions.
We wondered if the GDP releases had the same asymmetrythat is, if there was a systematic discrepancy between the final number and, say, the preliminary release. The difference between the final and preliminary releases is depicted in the graph below, with recessions highlighted in gray.
While there are no evident patterns, at the start of recessions, there are usually huge negative revisions from preliminary to final releases.
What is the reason for the disparity between the preliminary and final GDP estimates? The differences could be due to the time period they’re measuring or the methods they’re using to collect data.
In 2021, which country will have the greatest GDP?
What are the world’s largest economies? According to the International Monetary Fund, the following countries have the greatest nominal GDP in the world:
What is America’s GDP forecast for 2021?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
What accounts for India’s low GDP?
There are two things that stand out. The Indian economy began to revive in March 2013 more than a year before the current government took office after a period of contraction following the Global Financial Crisis.
But, more importantly, since the third quarter of 2016-17 (October to December), this recovery has transformed into a secular slowing of growth. While the RBI did not declare so, many experts believe the government’s move to demonetise 86 percent of India’s currency overnight on November 8, 2016, was the catalyst that sent the country’s GDP into a tailspin.
The GDP growth rate steadily fell from over 8% in FY17 to around 4% in FY20, just before Covid-19 hit the country, as the ripples of demonetisation and a poorly designed and hastily implemented Goods and Services Tax (GST) spread through an economy already struggling with massive bad loans in the banking system.
PM Modi voiced hope in January 2020, when GDP growth fell to a 42-year low (in terms of nominal GDP), saying: “The Indian economy’s high absorbent capacity demonstrates the strength of the country’s foundations and its ability to recover.”
The foundations of the Indian economy were already weak in January last year well before the outbreak as an examination of key factors shows. For example, in the recent past (Chart 2), India’s GDP growth trend mirrored an exponential development pattern “Even before Covid-19 came the market, there was a “inverted V.”
Is the economy doing well right now?
Indeed, the year is starting with little signs of progress, as the late-year spread of omicron, along with the fading tailwind of fiscal stimulus, has experts across Wall Street lowering their GDP projections.
When you add in a Federal Reserve that has shifted from its most accommodative policy in history to hawkish inflation-fighters, the picture changes dramatically. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator currently shows a 0.1 percent increase in first-quarter GDP.
“The economy is slowing and downshifting,” said Joseph LaVorgna, Natixis’ head economist for the Americas and former chief economist for President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council. “It isn’t a recession now, but it will be if the Fed becomes overly aggressive.”
GDP climbed by 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021, capping a year in which the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States increased by 5.7 percent on an annualized basis. That followed a 3.4 percent drop in 2020, the steepest but shortest recession in US history, caused by a pandemic.
What is the GDP of the United States in 2022?
According to our econometric models, the US GDP will trend around 22790.00 USD Billion in 2022 and 23420.00 USD Billion in 2023 in the long run.
Is China considered developed?
China’s designation as a ‘developing country’ at the World Trade Organization (WTO) has become a sensitive topic, with a number of countries concerned that the upper middle-income country is benefiting from WTO principles that are intended for impoverished countries. Concerns have also been raised about Bangladesh’s ‘least developed nation’ (LDC) status, which it may lose after surpassing India in terms of GDP per capita.
Afghanistan
Continual violent strife, government corruption, and widespread income disparity plague this mountainous nation. The Taliban retook control of Afghanistan’s government after the United States and the United Nations withdrew their forces in mid-2021. While the long-term impact of this change on Afghanistan’s economy is unknown, the Taliban’s ongoing conflicts with ISIL, as well as its forcible closure of female-owned businesses and refusal to allow girls to attend school, are widely seen as conditions unlikely to lead to a more robust and stable economy.
North Korea
Although North Korea may be Asia’s poorest country, the country’s notoriously secretive leadership rarely provides data, so economists must rely heavily on expert estimates. The authoritarian regime’s weak governance is blamed for North Korea’s poverty. In North Korea, the free market is almost non-existent. According to estimates, around 60% of North Korea’s population would be poor by 2020.
Nepal
Political instability and corruption, a lack of industry, and a reliance on agriculture are all factors contributing to Nepal’s poverty. Despite its abundance of natural resources, Nepal has not taken advantage of them by exporting them to other countries.
Tajikistan
Tajikistan is routinely ranked as Asia’s second or third poorest country by most measures. Tajikistan’s economy is stalled due to a lack of infrastructure. Tajikistan has one of the world’s largest remittance economies, since many competent people leave the nation in quest of better job prospects. In addition, during the 1990s, Tajikistan’s civil conflict destroyed almost one-fifth of the country’s schools, robbing children of their right to an education, which is one of the most important factors in alleviating poverty.
Yemen
Yemen is ranked 168th out of 177 countries on the UN’s Human Development Index (HDI), indicating that it is one of the world’s poorest countries. Yemen’s poverty arises from the country’s protracted civil war, corruption, and mismanagement of the economy. As a result of the civil conflict, an increasing number of Yemenis are living in poverty. Approximately 79 percent of the population is poor, with 65 percent classified as extremely poor.
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan is Asia’s fifth poorest country in terms of GDP per capita (current US$). Around 32% of Kyrgyzstan’s population lives in poverty. The country’s reliance on agriculture, as well as disparities in knowledge and resources among its people, are the main reasons of poverty in Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan also has few natural resources that are appealing to the rest of the world, with cotton and tobacco being the only products it can export. Furthermore, many parts of Kyrgyzstan lack basic banking and financial services, which discourages people from investing and slows economic progress.
Cambodia
Cambodia has a scarcity of human resources and a widening wealth gap. Despite recent economic gains, the country remains impoverished, and the government has done little to develop the infrastructure needed to raise millions of people out of poverty.
Myanmar
Around 26% of Myanmar’s population lives in poverty, with rural areas accounting for 70% of the country’s population. Poor government planning, internal unrest, a lack of foreign investment, a huge trade deficit, and insufficient infrastructure and know-how to take advantage of the country’s natural resources are the key contributors to slow economic growth.
Syria
Because Syria rarely releases official economic data, economists must rely on their best guesses, which depict a grim picture. As of 2017, almost 80% of Syrians lived in poverty or near poverty, a 45 percent rise from 2007. The Syrian Civil War, which has destroyed health-care infrastructure and educational facilities, is the primary reason of the significant rise in poverty. Education is one of the best ways out of poverty, but due to the conflict, about half of Syrian children no longer attend school. Syria has also seen extremely high inflation in recent years, hitting a high of 121.29 percent in 2014.
Pakistan
Despite Pakistan’s abundant natural resources, about 40% of the country’s population lives in abject poverty. Government corruption and elitism, religious and secular conflict, and a lack of democratic values are all factors contributing to this dysfunction. The government also spends the majority of its national budget on defense, with education accounting for only 2.6 percent of its overall GDP. As a result, about half of Pakistan’s population is illiterate.
India
Despite being the world’s fifth-largest economy in terms of GDP, roughly 21% of India’s population (269 million people) lives in poverty. Poverty in India is caused by illiteracy, gender discrimination, unequal economic distribution, and the country’s rapidly growing population.
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan, a former Soviet republic, is a promising producer of commodities such as gold, copper, uranium, petroleum gas, cotton, and grapes. However, because to widespread governmental corruption, the earnings from these industries mostly benefit a small group of citizens. Economists believe corruption, as well as the income inequality it causes, to be a key impediment to the country’s progress out of poverty.
Timor-Leste
This half-island republic in the South Pacific (which may easily be regarded part of Oceania rather than Asia) is still growing after only gaining independence from Indonesia in 2002. Despite the fact that Timor-Leste (formerly known as East Timor) exports a lot of coffee, as well as marble, sandalwood, and an increasing amount of oil and gas, many of its people still rely on subsistence farming. Additional barriers to economic progress are typically highlighted as a rudimentary judicial system, a low but improving adult literacy rate, and particularly weak telecommunications infrastructure.
Is India considered developed?
India is a southern Asian emerging and developing country (EDC). It is the world’s largest democracy as well as one of the fastest growing economies.