Over the next five years, India is anticipated to have the fastest economic growth of the 132 countries analyzed by FocusEconomics. While the country was heavily struck by the Covid-19 outbreak and the following draconian lockdown last spring, infection rates have dropped dramatically in recent months, the domestic vaccine campaign is now underway, and recent economic indicatorssuch as PMI readings and trade dataare positive. In the coming years, rising consumption, investment, and exports will drive development, with a favorable base effect in 2021 following the collapse of 2020 also playing a role. Furthermore, recent structural reforms, such as the goal of privatizing state-owned banks, permitting increased foreign participation in the insurance sector, and market-oriented agricultural reforms, all pose upside risks. However, there are concerns about the political will to carry out the reforms, and weak infrastructure will continue to stymie growth. Furthermore, the decision by ASEAN countries, Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea in late 2019 to withdraw from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)a free-trade pact recently agreed upon by ASEAN countries, Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Koreacould stymie the external sector.
“With Covid-19 under control, the economy has already begun to normalize at a faster rate than anticipated. Front-loaded and increased government spending, the delayed effects of stronger financial conditions, faster global commerce, and continued vaccinations should all combine to cause cyclical growth to accelerate sharply. We maintain our above-consensus real GDP growth forecast of 13.5 percent year over year in FY22, compared to -6.7 percent in FY21, with the budget adding upside risk to our FY23 projection (6.1 percent).” – Mr. Nomura
Bangladesh
Bangladesh has fared quite well during the Covid-19 crisis: While decreased garment exports slowed growth last year, strong remittance inflows and improving industrial production have helped the recovery in recent months. In the future, the economy should be driven by rapid export growth and increasing domestic demand. Furthermore, the country’s demographics will continue to be favorable: The dependence ratiothe ratio of the working-age population to the population not in the labor forcehas plummeted in recent decades as a result of past success in lowering fertility rates, helping productivity and enhancing public finances. Slow vaccination progress, on the other hand, constitutes a risk.
“The expected repatriation of Bangladeshi migrants to their foreign workplaces will keep remittances from plunging, keeping private consumption high.” Increased investment spending as a result of a slew of ongoing infrastructure development projects, as well as a pick-up in domestic activity, will bolster growth. Positive base effects in the second half of the fiscal year, compared to the period of coronavirus-induced lockdown in the same period in 2020, will bolster the ongoing domestic recovery. A potential increase in coronavirus cases in Bangladesh, which could compel the government to reintroduce harsh containment measures, is a downside risk to our forecast. Before 2022/23, we don’t expect growth to return to the pre-pandemic range of 7-8 percent.” – Intelligence Unit of the Economist
Rwanda
Rwanda’s economy has come a long way since the genocide that ripped the country’s economic, political, and social fabric apart in the early 1990s. In 2000, nominal GDP was USD 2 billion, and in 2019, it was USD 10 billion. Despite the fact that the Covid-19 issue has slowed progress in the last year due to fewer FDI and firm closures, our panelists expect real GDP growth to average 6.7 percent from 2021 to 2025. Surge in investment should bolster activity. However, a shaky fiscal position, insufficient domestic savings, and high energy prices all pose dangers. Furthermore, the country’s outstanding development in recent decades has been primarily reliant on Paul Kagame’s leadership; if he were to step down, the country’s future would be much more uncertain.
“In the near to medium term, regime stability appears to be assured.” The Covid-19 pandemic’s interruptions and economic impact appear to have had little impact on public opinion, but issues remain. Developments in neighboring nations, as well as ties with them, remain a potentially destabilizing element. President Paul Kagame’s succession is still a hot topic, and factionalism within the Rwandan Popular Front (RPF) may emerge in the future. If the country is to prevent any shocks, a well-managed transition to greater democracy must remain a top goal.” – Oxford Economics economist Jee-A van der Linde
Vietnam
In recent years, Vietnam has been one of East Asia’s top achievers, owing to a stable political situation, low labor costs, and a relatively talented workforce. The government has had great success attracting foreign direct investment, particularly in the fast-growing electronics and textiles sectors. Due to the trade war between the United States and China, Vietnam has negotiated a number of trade agreements to improve market access for its commodities, notably the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and an FTA with the European Union. Furthermore, the government has managed Covid-19 admirably, nearly eliminating the virus domestically, allowing the economy to grow at one of the quickest rates in the world last year. The manufacturing sector is expected to drive growth in the next years. Downside risks include a potentially slow rebound in visitor arrivals, exposure to external shocks, and the fragile health of leader Nguyen Phu Trong.
“Successful and prompt local containment of the Covid-19 outbreak has allowed business activities in Vietnam to progressively return to “normal,” as seen by the consecutive improvements in various data releases. While the upward trend in economic activity is expected to continue in 2021, the forecast is greatly contingent on global pandemic containment and vaccine rollout. Other factors working in Vietnam’s favor include a slew of free trade agreements that are expected to boost exports and investments. Vietnam’s current efforts in digital transformation and e-commerce promotion, as well as the country’s dynamic and abundant workforce, are all good factors for the future.” – Suan Teck Kin, United Overseas Bank’s head of research
Cambodia
The textile and construction industries have boosted economic activity in recent years, but the economy was struck hard by the pandemic in 2020, and it is expected to decline significantly due to income losses and decreasing tourism earnings. Although high unemployment, strained relations with the EUthe principal market for garment exportsand higher twin deficits represent downside risks, the economy could return to a good growth trajectory this year as the impact of the pandemic fades and FDI continues strong.
“As global production shifts away from China, longer-term growth prospects remain solid, with FDI continuing to stimulate new sector development.” As foreign demand rebounds, the prediction anticipates GDP growth maintaining close to 7% in 2023, fueling a comeback in investment with a substantial FDI component. Domestic income growth, even if politics remains restrictive, defuses anger, and supports net export expansion, which puts the current account deficit on a lower path.” – Chris Portman, Oxford Economics senior economist
In 2021, what would India’s GDP be?
In its second advance estimates of national accounts released on Monday, the National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted the country’s growth for 2021-22 at 8.9%, slightly lower than the 9.2% estimated in its first advance estimates released in January.
Furthermore, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reduced its estimates of GDP contraction for the coronavirus pandemic-affected last fiscal year (2020-21) to 6.6 percent. The previous projection was for a 7.3% decrease.
In April-June 2020, the Indian economy contracted 23.8 percent, and in July-September 2020, it contracted 6.6 percent.
“While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in Q3 FY2022, the NSO’s initial estimates are far below our expectations (6.2 percent for GDP), with a marginal increase in manufacturing and a contraction in construction that is surprising given the heavy rains in the southern states,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 38.22 trillion in Q3 of 2021-22, up from Rs 36.26 trillion in Q3 of 2020-21, indicating an increase of 5.4 percent,” according to an official release.
According to the announcement, real GDP (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is expected to reach Rs 147.72 trillion in 2021-22, up from Rs 135.58 trillion in the first updated estimate announced on January 31, 2022.
GDP growth is expected to be 8.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
In terms of value, GDP in October-December 2021-22 was Rs 38,22,159 crore, up from Rs 36,22,220 crore in the same period of 2020-21.
According to NSO data, the manufacturing sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth remained nearly steady at 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22, compared to 8.4 percent a year ago.
GVA growth in the farm sector was weak in the third quarter, at 2.6 percent, compared to 4.1 percent a year before.
GVA in the construction sector decreased by 2.8%, compared to 6.6% rise a year ago.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of current fiscal year, compared to 1.5 percent growth the previous year.
Similarly, trade, hotel, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services expanded by 6.1 percent, compared to a decline of 10.1 percent a year ago.
In Q3 FY22, financial, real estate, and professional services growth was 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in Q3 FY21.
During the quarter under examination, public administration, defense, and other services expanded by 16.8%, compared to a decrease of 2.9 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grew by 4% between October and December of 2021.
“India’s GDP growth for Q3FY22 was a touch lower than our forecast of 5.7 percent, as the manufacturing sector grew slowly and the construction industry experienced unanticipated de-growth.” We have, however, decisively emerged from the pandemic recession, with all sectors of the economy showing signs of recovery.
“Going ahead, unlock trade will help growth in Q4FY22, as most governments have eliminated pandemic-related limitations, but weak rural demand and geopolitical shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impair global growth and supply chains.” The impending pass-through of higher oil and gas costs could affect domestic demand mood, according to Elara Capital economist Garima Kapoor.
“Strong growth in the services sector and a pick-up in private final consumption expenditure drove India’s real GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q3.” While agriculture’s growth slowed in Q3, the construction sector’s growth became negative.
“On the plus side, actual expenditure levels in both the private and public sectors are greater than they were before the pandemic.
“Given the encouraging trends in government revenues and spending until January 2022, as well as the upward revision in the nominal GDP growth rate for FY22, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for FY22 may come out better than what the (federal) budget projected,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist, L&T Financial Holdings.
“The growth number is pretty disappointing,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist of Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Securities, said, citing weaker rural consumer demand and investments as reasons.
After crude prices soared beyond $100 a barrel, India, which imports virtually all of its oil, might face a wider trade imbalance, a weaker rupee, and greater inflation, with a knock to GDP considered as the main concern.
“We believe the fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will remain, given the geopolitical volatility and crude oil prices,” Hajra added.
According to Nomura, a 10% increase in oil prices would shave 0.2 percentage points off India’s GDP growth while adding 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to retail inflation.
Widening sanctions against Russia are likely to have a ripple impact on India, according to Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
“We see a 20-30 basis point downside risk to our base predictions,” she said. For the time being, HDFC expects the GDP to rise 8.2% in the coming fiscal year.
Is India progressing quickly?
According to UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Report 2021, India’s economy would grow at 7.2 percent in 2021, the second highest in the world after China, but will drop to 6.7 percent in 2022. Agencies India’s development comes amid a worldwide growth forecast of 5.3 percent, the fastest in nearly five decades.
What accounts for India’s low GDP?
There are two things that stand out. The Indian economy began to revive in March 2013 more than a year before the current government took office after a period of contraction following the Global Financial Crisis.
But, more importantly, since the third quarter of 2016-17 (October to December), this recovery has transformed into a secular slowing of growth. While the RBI did not declare so, many experts believe the government’s move to demonetise 86 percent of India’s currency overnight on November 8, 2016, was the catalyst that sent the country’s GDP into a tailspin.
The GDP growth rate steadily fell from over 8% in FY17 to around 4% in FY20, just before Covid-19 hit the country, as the ripples of demonetisation and a poorly designed and hastily implemented Goods and Services Tax (GST) spread through an economy already struggling with massive bad loans in the banking system.
PM Modi voiced hope in January 2020, when GDP growth fell to a 42-year low (in terms of nominal GDP), saying: “The Indian economy’s high absorbent capacity demonstrates the strength of the country’s foundations and its ability to recover.”
The foundations of the Indian economy were already weak in January last year well before the outbreak as an examination of key factors shows. For example, in the recent past (Chart 2), India’s GDP growth trend mirrored an exponential development pattern “Even before Covid-19 came the market, there was a “inverted V.”
Which country is the most powerful in the world?
In the 2021 Best Countries Report, Canada wins the top overall rank as the world’s number one country for the first time. After coming in second place in the 2020 report, Canada has now eclipsed Switzerland in the 2021 report, with Japan, Germany, Switzerland, and Australia following closely behind.
Who is Asia’s wealthiest country?
GDP per capita divides a country’s GDP by the number of citizens, providing a better picture of the typical person’s well-being. According to the International Monetary Fund, the 10 richest Asian countries in terms of GDP per capita in October 2021 are listed below (IMF).
Top 10 Richest Asian Countries (2020 GDP per capita, Int$ PPP – IMF)
Singapore, the city-state, is Asia’s wealthiest country, with a per-capita GDP of $107,690 (PPP Int$). Singapore’s wealth is due to a low level of government corruption and a business-friendly environment, not to oil. Many foreign investors come to Singapore to do business and bring their money with them. Qatar, an oil-rich country on the Arabian Peninsula in the Middle East, is Asia’s second wealthiest country. Qatar has a per-capita GDP of $100,040, and the country’s oil reserves are sufficient to last at least another two decades.
The remaining countries in the top ten are mostly tiny in size (“per capita” economic measurements frequently favor countries with lower populations) and either oil-rich or among the most business-friendly and technologically proficient countries, such as Hong Kong, an independent Chinese colony. However, as previously said, another metric may provide a different perspective.
What is the complete form of GDP?
The total monetary or market worth of all finished goods and services produced inside a country’s borders in a certain time period is known as GDP. It serves as a comprehensive scorecard of a country’s economic health because it is a broad measure of overall domestic production.
In 2022, what will India’s GDP be?
On Thursday, Moody’s decreased its prediction for India’s GDP growth to 9.1 percent in 2022, down from 9.5 percent previously. According to the credit ratings firm, the GDP would grow by 5.4 percent in 2023.
Who releases India’s Gross Domestic Product?
The GDP figures for the first quarter of the current fiscal year was announced on Tuesday by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) (2021-22). The MoSPI publishes four quarterly GDP statistics updates each year, which aid observers in assessing the current state of the Indian economy.
Is India considered a superpower?
India is regarded as one of the world’s potential superpowers. This potential is linked to a number of factors, the most important of which are the country’s demographic trends as well as its fast developing economy and military. With a projected GDP growth rate of 5% in 2015, India became the world’s fastest growing economy (mid year terms). To be regarded a superpower, the country must overcome numerous economic, social, and political issues, as well as be as prominent on the international scene as the United States, European Union, China, the former British Empire, and the former Soviet Union.