According to the conventional recession definition, a recession occurs when seasonally adjusted real GDP contracts quarter on quarter for at least two consecutive quarters. The table below shows all national recessions that occurred between 2006 and 2013 (for the 71 countries with available data). In this time span, only 11 of the 71 nations with quarterly GDP statistics (Poland, Slovakia, Moldova, India, China, South Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Uruguay, Colombia, and Bolivia) avoided a recession.
Only two nations (Iceland and Jamaica) were in recession in Q4-2007, demonstrating that the few recessions that appeared early in 2006-07 are rarely related with the Great Recession.
Only six countries were in recession a year before the peak, in Q1-2008 (Iceland, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Portugal and New Zealand). In Q2 2008, 25 countries were in recession, 39 in Q3 2008, and 53 in Q4 2008. During the worst of the Great Recession, in Q1 2009, a total of 59 out of 71 countries were in recession at the same time. In Q2 2009, 37 countries were in recession, 13 in Q3 2009, and 11 in Q4 2009. Only seven countries were in recession in Q1 2010 a year after the peak (Greece, Croatia, Romania, Iceland, Jamaica, Venezuela and Belize).
The Great Recession was a global recession from Q3 2008 to Q1 2009, according to recession data for the whole G20-zone (covering 85 percent of all GWP).
Following recessions in 20102013 affected only Belize, El Salvador, Paraguay, Jamaica, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand, and 24 of the 50 European countries (including Greece). Only five of the 71 nations having quarterly data (Cyprus, Italy, Croatia, Belize, and El Salvador) were still in recession as of October 2014. Many of the European countries’ subsequent recessions are generally regarded to as direct effects of the European sovereign debt crisis.
Which countries are now experiencing a downturn?
According to data from the Conference Board, Libya, Iraq, and Argentina have experienced the most years of negative GDP growth since 1951.
Apart from the “failed states” Libya and Iraq, Argentina has not witnessed a protracted civil war in recent years, despite the fact that the country experienced its fair share of insurgency during the dictatorship of Juan Domingo Pern in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. Even yet, the country has struggled with economic problems in recent years, with on-again, off-again recessions. While Argentina is more developed than the other countries on the list, it has been mired in a cycle of excessive spending, inflation, debt-creation, unsustainable cuts to government programs, and poor fiscal management.
Venezuela, Sudan, and Lebanon are among the countries now experiencing a prolonged recession, with all three predicted to enter their fourth recession year in 2021. Argentina is predicted to grow again in 2021 after three years of recession, but that outlook is far from certain given the current coronavirus outbreak.
Other countries that have experienced recessions include the Democratic Republic of the Congo, one of Africa’s least developed countries, Syria, and Chad, a landlocked African country where agriculture provides a living for 85 percent of the people.
Data for the former Soviet and Yugoslav republics is only accessible from 1971 onwards. Nonetheless, Ukraine and Moldova are ranked 9th and 10th, respectively, out of 124 countries and territories, demonstrating the devastating impact of the demise of Communism. Ukraine had ten consecutive recession years between 1990 and 1999, whereas Moldova had nine. Only counting from 1971 onwards, Ukraine and Moldova would be ranked fourth and sixth, respectively, while Croatia would be ranked 12th.
Are European countries experiencing a downturn?
As a result, many European Union countries have been forced to revert to partial lockdowns, and the region’s economy has suffered as a result. While the United States saw strong economic growth in the first quarter of this year, the European Union fell slightly and is now officially in recession.
After a rocky start, the European vaccination rollout appears to be speeding up, and EU officials have devised some plans to boost the economy. But it’s important to remember that the E.U. had serious economic challenges even before the pandemic struck – it never fully recovered from the Great Recession. It requires continued mega-stimulus to restore full employment and prosperity across the continent (as soon as vaccination is completed).
I’ve previously written on how the United States’ failed response to the Great Recession resulted in an economic lost decade. In 2019, American economic output was around 15% lower than it had been between 1947 and 2007, a loss of potential equal to the economies of California and Virginia combined.
The European Union, on the other hand, has done even worse. Here’s a graph comparing the inflation-adjusted GDP of the European Union (red line) and the United States (blue line) up until the pandemic, with the 2007 value normalized to 100 for comparison’s sake. The performance of the United States has been nearly twice as good:
What European countries are experiencing financial difficulties?
The debt crisis began in 2008 with the collapse of Iceland’s banking system, then extended to Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain in 2009, prompting the coining of an insulting term (PIIGS). 1 It has resulted in a loss of faith in European companies and economies.
Is Europe in a downturn in 2021?
The growth rate released by the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat for the April-June quarter was 0.3 percent lower than in the first quarter of 2021, as eurozone countries experienced a double-dip recession after a comeback in mid-2020.
Is the UK currently in a recession?
The UK’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 epidemic has been swift but uneven, with sectoral and regional imbalances still causing havoc. We foresee a further fading of growth momentum this winter due to a mix of ongoing public health worries, income losses, and supply disruptions. A sustained and complete recovery, in our opinion, is still a long way off. The labor market will determine a lot. In this chapter, we examine the UK economy’s prospects and the (many) obstacles that lie ahead.
A significant economic shift is now on the horizon. Many of the changes in household consumption habits that occurred during the pandemic appear to be enduring, and many businesses now appear to be anticipating and preparing for a new economy in the years ahead. This problem is exacerbated by Brexit, which appears to be ushering in a period of severe structural change in UK trade.
Inflation is expected to spike in the second half of 2021, with the annual CPI hitting 4.6 percent in April 2022. However, increasing inflation is now being driven by a small number of mostly imported products, with services inflation remaining relatively stable. For the time being, the risks of a more sustained domestically driven price increase appear to be limited – but inflation expectations are a source of concern. Overall, we believe that inflationary pressures should ease, and that monetary and fiscal policy should continue to support the recovery for the time being.
Key findings
- The British economy is undergoing a rapid but incomplete and unbalanced rebound. Better public health, loosening limitations, and the continuation of fiscal support have all contributed to a speedier economic reopening in recent months than had been predicted at the start of the year. The UK economy, on the other hand, is still one severe recession short of its pre-COVID track. The recovery is still still limited in composition, distorted by sectoral and regional imbalances: demand is outpacing supply in some (well-publicized) segments of the economy while it lags in others.
- From here, we anticipate that accumulating household savings will only provide a modest boost to growth. For the first time, enterprises and people will face the income implications of the overall activity gap as government support is reduced. We foresee a further fading of growth momentum over the winter due to a mix of ongoing public health worries, income losses, and supply disruptions. A durable and thorough economic recovery, in our opinion, is still a long way off.
- A major economic shift is on the horizon. During the epidemic, there were staggering inequalities in economic activity. While some of these effects have subsided as the economy has recovered, others appear to be becoming more enduring. In social categories, for example, household consumption is still 10% lower. Sales are expected to be roughly 5% higher in the long run as a result of the pandemic for transportation and storage companies, but 4 percent lower for hotel companies. Many businesses currently appear to be anticipating and planning for a changed economy in the coming years, implying a lengthy period of transformation.
- The problem will be exacerbated by Brexit. As a result of continued EU market access and Sterling depreciation, adjustment before 2020 appears to have been postponed. In recent months, supply disruption has been exacerbated by newer frictions. Early indications also point to the start of a period of severe structural change in UK trade. We expect the shift away from EU suppliers and clients to accelerate in the products sector. Services continue to be a major source of concern. Professional services exports to the EU have trailed in recent years: in 2021Q1, professional services exports to the EU accounted for roughly 30% of total exports, compared to 44% in 2016Q1. We predict these effects to worsen in the coming years, implying a net decrease in UK services exports.
- The recovery’s lynchpin is the labor market. While demand has already changed dramatically as a result of the epidemic, budgetary support has prevented equivalent changes in the labor market. Sales have migrated across sectors at a considerably faster rate than employment, with total surplus job reallocation since 2020Q2 being 24 percent lower than sales. As a result, the recovery has become increasingly ‘constrained.’ We expect some of these pressures to start to dissipate from here. As the employment related with the economic reopening is finished, vacancies should decrease. With the conclusion of the furlough and less uncertainty, adjustment should pick up speed, allowing for a greater recovery in labor mobility. According to our projections, unemployment will rise to 5.5 percent in 2022Q1 as furloughs end and more people return to work. With matching challenges, a capital-intensive recovery, and an increase in the effective tax burden on labor beginning in April, the labor market is expected to trail rather than lead the recovery in the coming years.
- Recent salary increases have been driven mostly by sector-specific labor shortages rather than broader wage pressures. Sectoral wage settlements have climbed into the double digits due to high demand in areas including transportation and food processing. Overall pay settlements, however, are broadly in line with pre-pandemic levels. For the time being, we believe that when supply increases, some of these pockets of upward pressure will subside, but a relative revaluation of skills is now more plausible. With output projected to lag the pre-pandemic growth path on a long-term basis, greater labor market slack and lower wages may emerge in the years ahead. As living costs rise, we predict real household discretionary income to fall by 0.1 percent in 202223.
- Inflation is expected to spike in the second half of 2021, with the annual CPI hitting 4.6 percent in April 2022. For the time being, the drivers in this area appear to be temporary. Energy and base impacts, as well as trade interruptions and imported inflation, are all likely to raise inflation. These effects may be persistent at first, but they should eventually fade away. The greater danger is a price increase that is driven primarily by domestic factors. For the time being, the dangers are contained in this area. Only a few predominantly imported products are currently driving rising inflation, with services inflation in particular remaining moderate. We also don’t expect the labor market to be sufficiently tight in the aggregate to drive costs higher on a more sustained basis. Instead of salary pressures, higher unit labor costs appear to be more likely to lead to job losses.
- Inflation expectations, on the other hand, are a bigger worry. Firms may be willing to take greater wages and offer higher prices if these begin to shift up, generating the possibility of a genuine wage price spiral. In contrast to both the US and the Eurozone, inflation expectations were at rather than below goal levels prior to the epidemic. Firms, households, and financial markets are all experiencing upward pressures, and acute labor shortages may exacerbate the dangers. However, because temporary inflation is projected to give way to disinflation in the next months, upside risks may move to the negative in the medium term. It’s possible that the latter will be even more difficult to combat.
- With the economy likely to restructure during the next 18 months, the relationship between recovery pace and final scale is stronger than usual. COVID-related scarring (i.e., the pandemic’s long-term economic harm) could be confined to just 11.5 percent of GDP, compared to 3 percent in the OBR’s March 2021 scenario. A delayed recovery could result in increased hysteresis effects and long-term losses. Brexit will, in our opinion, continue to put a strain on the UK’s capacity. When combined with our assessment of COVID-19 effects, we estimate that the economy will be 21/2 percent smaller in 2024-25 than the OBR’s pre-pandemic forecast (March 2020).
- To ensure a comprehensive economic recovery, policy help may be required in the future. A recovery in both supply and demand at the same time offers a foundation for policy to ‘lean loose.’ In this climate, supply is expected to be more responsive to demand conditions than usual, implying that capacity is likely to be higher than official statistics suggests. Given the stronger link between scarring and recovery pace, halting the recovery’s momentum could result in a larger permanent output loss. Higher inflation expectations constitute a danger in the short term that may require immediate action to mitigate. However, we believe that policymakers should err on the side of giving more rather than less support for the time being.
- Given the limited scope of monetary policy, policymakers must now plan for fiscal capacity to play a larger role in macroeconomic stabilization. This is going to be critical if policymakers are to be able to respond successfully in future crises.
What were the countries hardest hit by the Great Recession?
The crisis had an impact on all countries in some form, but some countries were hit more than others. A picture of financial devastation emerges as currency depreciation, stock market declines, and government bond spreads rise. These three indicators, considered combined, convey the impact of the crisis since they show financial weakness. Ukraine, Argentina, and Jamaica are the countries most hit by the crisis, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s International Economics Bulletin. Ireland, Russia, Mexico, Hungary, and the Baltic nations are among the other countries that have been severely affected. China, Japan, Brazil, India, Iran, Peru, and Australia, on the other hand, are “among the least affected.”
It’s official now. The German economy fell in the fourth quarter of 2021, raising the likelihood of a full-fledged recession by the year’s end. German GDP fell by 0.7 percent quarter-on-quarter, down from 1.7 percent in the third quarter, according to the first official estimate. The economy rose by 1.4 percent year over year. GDP growth for the first half of 2021 was revised upwards, resulting in GDP growth of 2.8 percent for the entire year, rather than the previously predicted 2.7 percent. The German economy slowed in the last three months of the year, according to the statistical agency and available monthly data, owing primarily to sluggish private consumption.
Is Europe’s economy stronger than America’s?
In nominal terms, the United States and the European Union are the world’s two largest economies. In nominal and PPP terms, they account for 42.4 percent and 30.7 percent of world GDP, respectively, as of 2021.
According to IMF forecasts for 2021, the United States will be ahead by $5,548 billion, or 1.32 times, on an exchange rate basis. The gap is narrower on a purchasing power parity basis, with the United States leading by Int. $ 1,757 or 1.08 times. According to World Bank estimations, the US has had a greater gdp for 41 years while the European Union has had a higher gdp for 12 years from 1966 to 2019. The last time the European Union had a larger GDP than the United States was in 2011. In 1985, the ratio between these two was at its maximum, 1.62x, in favor of the United States. In 1980, the EU had the largest ratio in favor of the US, with 1.16x of the US gdp. Since 1994, the EU has been closely following the US in terms of ppp.
In nominal and PPP terms, the United States’ per capita income is 1.86 and 1.44 times more than that of the European Union in 2021. For statistics accessible since 1966, the US had a higher GDP per capita than the EU.
The European Union’s GDP growth rate reaches a high of 6.03 percent in 1973 and a low of -4.33 percent in 2009. Only once between 1966 and 2019 did the European Union grow by more than 5%. In 1984, the US hit an all-time high of 7.24 percent, while in 2009, it hit a new low of -2.54 percent. Over the course of nine years, the United States increased by more than 5%. For the first time in eight years, the United States’ GDP growth rate was negative. In the last five years, the European Union has experienced negative growth.
What economic problems does Greece face?
Instead of boosting the economy, the country experienced high inflation, large budget and trade deficits, low growth rates, and currency crises. Joining the European Monetary Union (EMU) appeared to give a ray of optimism in this bleak economic climate.
Which European country has the most powerful economy?
In 2020, Germany’s economy was by far the greatest in Europe, with a Gross Domestic Product of nearly 3.3 trillion Euros. The United Kingdom and France, which have similar economies, were the second and third largest economies in Europe this year, followed by Italy and Spain.