17951), co-authors Hilary Hoynes, Douglas Miller, and Jessamyn Schaller discover that the Great Recession had a negative influence on the economy.
Men, black and Hispanic workers, young workers, and workers with less education have had higher unemployment rates than others in the labor market from December 2007 to June 2009.
Who is the hardest hit by the recession?
8 industries with the best job security during a downturn
- Health-care services. People get sick and require medical care regardless of the state of the economy, thus the demand for health-care occupations is fairly stable, even during a downturn.
Recessions have an impact on who.
Rising unemployment, dropping property values, and the stock market decline all had an impact on those approaching retirement, either directly or indirectly. Furthermore, many elderly persons who were not directly impacted by the recession had children or other relatives who were. For many older persons, the recession’s financial difficulties resulted in changes in wealth and spending patterns, as well as physical and mental health issues with long-term effects.
What happens if the economy tanks?
Almost everyone suffers in some way during an economic downturn. Businesses and individuals fail, unemployment grows, incomes fall, and many people are forced to cut back on their expenditures.
Are all people affected by recessions?
Economic downturns are frequently portrayed as transient occurrences. However, as a large body of economic literature demonstrates, the effects of high unemployment, declining earnings, and lower economic activity can be long-term. Job loss and declining finances, for example, can cause families to postpone or forego their children’s college education. Credit markets that are frozen and consumer spending that is down can stifle the growth of otherwise thriving small enterprises. Larger corporations may postpone or cut R&D spending.
In any of these scenarios, an economic downturn can result in “scarring,” or long-term damage to people’s financial positions and the economy as a whole. This paper looks at some of the research that shows how recessions have long-term implications. The following are some of the findings:
- Unemployment and income losses can have a negative impact on educational achievement by jeopardizing early childhood nutrition, limiting families’ ability to provide a supportive learning environment (including adequate health care, summer activities, and stable housing), and forcing students to postpone or abandon college plans.
- Opportunity: Job and income losses caused by the recession can have long-term effects for people and families. For example, the increase in poverty that will occur as a result of the recession will have long-term effects for children and will entail long-term economic costs.
- Private investment: Through the second quarter of 2009, total non-residential investment was down 20% from peak levels. For years to come, the decline in investment will result in lower production capacity. Furthermore, because technology is frequently integrated into new capital equipment, the investment slowdown is likely to hinder the uptake of new developments.
- Entrepreneurship and the establishment of new enterprises: New and small businesses are frequently at the forefront of technical advancement. Small firms are facing a double whammy as a result of the loan constraint and a drop in consumer demand. For example, 43,500 businesses declared bankruptcy in 2008, up from 28,300 in 2007 and more than double the 19,700 in 2006. In 2008, just 21 active companies filed for an initial public offering, compared to an average of 163 in the previous four years.
There’s also evidence that economic consequences are handed down through the generations. As a result, financial difficulties for parents will result in further financial difficulties for their children. While it is true that deficits can result in wealth transfers from future generations of taxpayers to current generations, this cost must be weighed against the economic costs of recessions, which are also passed on to future generations.
This analysis also reveals that short- and long-term initiatives to stimulate the economy can be quite effective. Using a simple illustrative accounting framework, it is demonstrated that an economic stimulus can result in a short-run gain in output that balances the additional interest costs associated with the increased debt. This is especially true when the horizon is short.
As a result, a recession should not be viewed as a one-time occurrence that strains individuals and families for a few years. Economic downturns, on the other hand, will affect the future chances of all family members, including children, and will have long-term effects.
Tax cuts, payments to state governments, and direct spending were all included in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), which was passed earlier this year. According to the Obama administration, the package will generate or save jobs.
By the end of 2010, the economy would have added 3.5 million jobs, at a cost of $787 billion over ten years (Council of Economic Advisors 2009). The package’s influence will very certainly extend beyond the creation of short-term jobs. Increased expenditure will stimulate the economy as a whole, resulting in higher economic output, higher national income, and higher federal revenue (which would offset some of the initial cost). This increase in overall economic activity will benefit the economy in the long run by avoiding many of the expenses associated with recessions. The package will also pay out in the long run because it includes public investments in sectors like transportation infrastructure, energy efficiency, and education.
During a recession, who loses?
The following is a summary of our findings: First, the Great Recession’s labor market fall is both worse and longer than the recession of the early 1980s. Second, men, black and Hispanic employees, teenagers, and low-education workers have been hit the worst by the Great Recession.
Which industry is immune to the downturn?
A recession-proof business can be extremely profitable for people in both good and bad times. Whatever the state of the economy or the stock market, certain company concepts, such as those listed below, have a good possibility of succeeding despite the rest of the financial doom and gloom.
Many well-known or historically successful enterprises were founded during economic downturns. The Walt Disney Company was created in the late 1920s, at the commencement of the Great Depression, and the Hewlett and Packard electronics company was founded in the late 1930s, during the second recession.
Rising interest rates and shifting GDP pose far less of a threat to the finest recession-proof enterprises mentioned below than they do to most other businesses, with many of them having the ability to do even more business than usual.
Food and Beverage Business
Because everyone still needs food and drinks to live, the food and beverage business is one of the most recession-proof industries. Because it is not a luxury that can be put aside in difficult times, enterprises in this area can thrive even in a downturn.
What impact did the Great Recession have on families?
The federal government responded to the recession by significantly expanding UI eligibility, increasing TANF allocations, and expanding the EITC and CTC. During the slump, other government safety net spending surged as the population eligible for services grew. These limited increases of the social safety net were critical in keeping families and children from falling deeper into poverty. However, the economic downturn had a significant impact on earnings and employment, pushing more families into poverty and leading to a rise in intimate partner violence.
Policymakers should consider a number of options for ensuring that the social safety net is prepared to respond properly in the event of the next economic downturn:
- Oppose the White House’s proposed “public charge” rule, which would restrict immigrant access to the social safety net even more. In fact, unauthorized immigrants, particularly children of immigrants, should be allowed to participate in direct assistance programs. 14
- Reduce the amount of discretion that states have over programs like TANF by requiring expenditure and accountability mechanisms to guarantee that money are spent as intended.
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- Prepare to enact a stimulus plan that strengthens the social safety net sufficiently amid an economic downturn.
- Investigate measures to improve social services for low-income familiesthis would necessitate countercyclical public investment rather than cutting funding for social programs as demand rises.
M. Bitler and H. Hoynes (2016). Isn’t it true that the more things change, the more they remain the same? During the Great Recession, the safety net and poverty were both impacted. S403-S444 in Journal of Labor Economics.
M. Bitler, H. Hoynes, and E. Kuka (2017). In the United States, child poverty, the Great Recession, and the social safety net are all discussed. 358-389 in Journal of Policy Analysis and Management.
D. Schneider (2015). Evidence from the United States on the Great Recession, fertility, and uncertainty. 1144-1156 in Journal of Marriage and Family.
D. Schneider, K. Harknett, and S. McLanahan (2016). Demography 52:2, 471-505, Intimate Partner Violence in the Great Recession.
This is the second in a series of policy briefings on the Great Recession based on IRLE academic research. The first brief looked into what caused the Great Recession. The third session will look at employment and salary trends before, during, and after the Great Recession, and the fourth session will look at recovery initiatives.
What causes a downturn?
Most recessions, on the other hand, are brought on by a complex combination of circumstances, such as high interest rates, poor consumer confidence, and stagnant or lower real wages in the job market. Bank runs and asset bubbles are two further instances of recession causes (see below for an explanation of these terms).
What impact does a recession have on retirees?
- “The current economic collapse is likely to be the worst since World War II,” according to an AARP analysis from December 2008. Its impact on senior citizens in the United States could be disastrous.”
- In the end, the recession had a minor impact on the wealth of elderly people.
- Between 2017 and 2018, the actual median income of all households headed by older adults increased by 3.3 percent (after inflation).
- In 2019, there were 10.7 million (20.2%) Americans aged 65 and up in the labor force.
Do things get less expensive during a recession?
Lower aggregate demand during a recession means that businesses reduce production and sell fewer units. Wages account for the majority of most businesses’ costs, accounting for over 70% of total expenses.