In India, the Central Statistics Office, which is part of the Ministry of Statistics and Program, is solely responsible for estimating GDP.
In India, who calculates the GDP?
To collect and compile the data needed to calculate the GDP and other statistics, the Central Statistics Office collaborates with numerous federal and state government agencies and departments. The Price Monitoring Cell at the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, for example, collects and calibrates data points pertaining to manufacturing, crop yields, and commodities, which are used to calculate the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Who is in charge of calculating GDP?
A national government ministry in India is in charge of the massive responsibility of estimating GDP. This Ministry collects data on the entire number of goods and services, as well as their prices, with the cooperation of several government departments from all Indian states and union territories, and then assesses GDP.
What will India’s GDP be in 2021?
In its second advance estimates of national accounts released on Monday, the National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted the country’s growth for 2021-22 at 8.9%, slightly lower than the 9.2% estimated in its first advance estimates released in January.
Furthermore, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reduced its estimates of GDP contraction for the coronavirus pandemic-affected last fiscal year (2020-21) to 6.6 percent. The previous projection was for a 7.3% decrease.
In April-June 2020, the Indian economy contracted 23.8 percent, and in July-September 2020, it contracted 6.6 percent.
“While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in Q3 FY2022, the NSO’s initial estimates are far below our expectations (6.2 percent for GDP), with a marginal increase in manufacturing and a contraction in construction that is surprising given the heavy rains in the southern states,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 38.22 trillion in Q3 of 2021-22, up from Rs 36.26 trillion in Q3 of 2020-21, indicating an increase of 5.4 percent,” according to an official release.
According to the announcement, real GDP (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is expected to reach Rs 147.72 trillion in 2021-22, up from Rs 135.58 trillion in the first updated estimate announced on January 31, 2022.
GDP growth is expected to be 8.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
In terms of value, GDP in October-December 2021-22 was Rs 38,22,159 crore, up from Rs 36,22,220 crore in the same period of 2020-21.
According to NSO data, the manufacturing sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth remained nearly steady at 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22, compared to 8.4 percent a year ago.
GVA growth in the farm sector was weak in the third quarter, at 2.6 percent, compared to 4.1 percent a year before.
GVA in the construction sector decreased by 2.8%, compared to 6.6% rise a year ago.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of current fiscal year, compared to 1.5 percent growth the previous year.
Similarly, trade, hotel, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services expanded by 6.1 percent, compared to a decline of 10.1 percent a year ago.
In Q3 FY22, financial, real estate, and professional services growth was 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in Q3 FY21.
During the quarter under examination, public administration, defense, and other services expanded by 16.8%, compared to a decrease of 2.9 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grew by 4% between October and December of 2021.
“India’s GDP growth for Q3FY22 was a touch lower than our forecast of 5.7 percent, as the manufacturing sector grew slowly and the construction industry experienced unanticipated de-growth.” We have, however, decisively emerged from the pandemic recession, with all sectors of the economy showing signs of recovery.
“Going ahead, unlock trade will help growth in Q4FY22, as most governments have eliminated pandemic-related limitations, but weak rural demand and geopolitical shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impair global growth and supply chains.” The impending pass-through of higher oil and gas costs could affect domestic demand mood, according to Elara Capital economist Garima Kapoor.
“Strong growth in the services sector and a pick-up in private final consumption expenditure drove India’s real GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q3.” While agriculture’s growth slowed in Q3, the construction sector’s growth became negative.
“On the plus side, actual expenditure levels in both the private and public sectors are greater than they were before the pandemic.
“Given the encouraging trends in government revenues and spending until January 2022, as well as the upward revision in the nominal GDP growth rate for FY22, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for FY22 may come out better than what the (federal) budget projected,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist, L&T Financial Holdings.
“The growth number is pretty disappointing,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist of Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Securities, said, citing weaker rural consumer demand and investments as reasons.
After crude prices soared beyond $100 a barrel, India, which imports virtually all of its oil, might face a wider trade imbalance, a weaker rupee, and greater inflation, with a knock to GDP considered as the main concern.
“We believe the fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will remain, given the geopolitical volatility and crude oil prices,” Hajra added.
According to Nomura, a 10% increase in oil prices would shave 0.2 percentage points off India’s GDP growth while adding 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to retail inflation.
Widening sanctions against Russia are likely to have a ripple impact on India, according to Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
“We see a 20-30 basis point downside risk to our base predictions,” she said. For the time being, HDFC expects the GDP to rise 8.2% in the coming fiscal year.
Who did economics begin with?
- Philosophers, writers, and economists of the twentieth century analyzed Smith’s writings.
- Smith’s beliefs about the value of free markets, assembly-line manufacturing, and gross domestic product (GDP) became the foundation for classical economic theory.
- Voltaire, Jean-Jacques Rousseau, Benjamin Franklin, Anne-Robert-Jacques Turgot, and Franois Quesnay were among his contemporaries in France and abroad.
Upsc, how is GDP calculated?
India’s GDP: Frequently Asked Questions Notes from the UPSC Nominal GDP is computed using market prices for the year in question, whereas Real GDP is derived using market prices from the previous year. Inflation in commodities and services is cancelled out by the Real GDP.
What is GDP and how is it measured in India, and what is its significance?
Explanation: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measurement of a region’s or country’s output over a period of time. GDP is computed by summing together all of the country’s entire output. The Central Statistics Office of India is in charge of calculating the country’s GDP.
What accounts for India’s low GDP?
There are two things that stand out. The Indian economy began to revive in March 2013 more than a year before the current government took office after a period of contraction following the Global Financial Crisis.
But, more importantly, since the third quarter of 2016-17 (October to December), this recovery has transformed into a secular slowing of growth. While the RBI did not declare so, many experts believe the government’s move to demonetise 86 percent of India’s currency overnight on November 8, 2016, was the catalyst that sent the country’s GDP into a tailspin.
The GDP growth rate steadily fell from over 8% in FY17 to around 4% in FY20, just before Covid-19 hit the country, as the ripples of demonetisation and a poorly designed and hastily implemented Goods and Services Tax (GST) spread through an economy already struggling with massive bad loans in the banking system.
PM Modi voiced hope in January 2020, when GDP growth fell to a 42-year low (in terms of nominal GDP), saying: “The Indian economy’s high absorbent capacity demonstrates the strength of the country’s foundations and its ability to recover.”
The foundations of the Indian economy were already weak in January last year well before the outbreak as an examination of key factors shows. For example, in the recent past (Chart 2), India’s GDP growth trend mirrored an exponential development pattern “Even before Covid-19 came the market, there was a “inverted V.”
Who is India’s economic father?
Pamulaparthi Venkata Narasimha Rao (June 28, 1921 December 23, 2004) was an Indian lawyer and politician who was the country’s ninth Prime Minister from 1991 to 1996. He is dubbed the “Father of Indian Economic Reforms” by many. His election to the prime ministership was noteworthy politically because he was only the second person from a non-Hindi-speaking region to hold the position, and the first from South India. He oversaw a tremendous economic revolution as well as various domestic crises that threatened India’s national security. Rao, as Minister of Industries, was personally responsible for the deconstruction of the Licence Raj, which was under the authority of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, reversing Rajiv Gandhi’s economic policies. The economic reform ideas pioneered by Rao’s government were followed by future prime leaders Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh. To begin a major economic transformation, he appointed Manmohan Singh as his Finance Minister. Manmohan Singh initiated India’s globalisation angle of the reforms that implemented the International Monetary Fund (IMF) policies to save the nearly bankrupt nation from economic disaster, thanks to Rao’s mandate. Rao was also known as Chanakya because of his ability to get economic and political policies passed in parliament while leading a minority administration.
According to Natwar Singh, a former Indian Foreign Minister, “Unlike Nehru, he had a strong grasp of Sanskrit. PV had a temper, and Nehru had a temper. His spiritual and religious roots were deep in India’s spiritual and religious soil. He didn’t have to ‘Discover India’ to be successful “.. Rao was regarded as a “patriotic statesman who thought that the nation is bigger than the political system” by India’s 11th President, APJ Abdul Kalam. Kalam confessed that Rao had ordered him to prepare for nuclear testing in 1996, but that they were never carried out because the federal administration changed after the 1996 election. The tests were later carried out by the NDA government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. In reality, Rao gave Vajpayee a briefing on nuclear preparations.
Rao’s tenure as Prime Minister of India was one of the most tumultuous in the country’s history. Apart from marking a paradigm shift from Jawaharlal Nehru’s industrializing, mixed economic model to a market-driven one, his years as Prime Minister also saw the emergence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a major right-wing party, as a viable alternative to the Indian National Congress, which had governed India for the majority of its post-independence history. During Rao’s tenure, the Babri Mosque in Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh, was demolished by the BJP’s Kalyan Singh as Chief Minister, resulting in one of the country’s deadliest Hindu-Muslim riots since independence.
Rao died of a heart attack in New Delhi in 2004. In Hyderabad, he was cremated. He was a multifaceted thinker with interests in a wide range of topics (apart from politics), including literature and computer software (including computer programming). He could communicate in 17 different languages.
Despite being widely chastised during his time and afterwards marginalized by his own party, retrospective assessments have been more positive, with polls and analysis naming him as one of India’s best prime ministers. His accomplishments include guiding India through the 1991 economic crisis, completing a term with a minority government, establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, initiating India’s Look East policy, rekindling India’s nuclear program, defeating the United Nations resolution against India in 1994, effectively handling and crushing insurgency in Punjab, a tough anti-terrorism policy in Kashmir, and opening partial diplomatic relations with Taiwan.