Important Points to Remember Inflation is beneficial when it counteracts the negative impacts of deflation, which are often more damaging to an economy. Consumers spend today because they expect prices to rise in the future, encouraging economic growth. Managing future inflation expectations is an important part of maintaining a stable inflation rate.
Fixed-rate mortgage holders
According to Mark Thoma, a retired professor of economics at the University of Oregon, anyone with substantial, fixed-rate loans like mortgages benefits from increased inflation. Those interest rates are fixed for the duration of the loan, so they won’t fluctuate with inflation. Given that homes are regarded an appreciating asset over time, homeownership may also be a natural inflation hedge.
“They’re going to be paying back with depreciated money,” Thoma says of those who have fixed-rate mortgages.
Property owners will also be protected from increased rent expenses during periods of high inflation.
In economics, what is the Philip curve?
The Phillips curve is a graphic illustration of the economic relationship between unemployment (or the rate of change in unemployment) and the rate of change in money earnings. It is named after economist A. William Phillips and suggests that when unemployment is low, wages rise quicker.
What is the real story behind inflation?
Although Milton Friedman has been deceased for more than a decade, his spirit continues to haunt us. Friedman argued in the 1960s that inflation is “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” a problem caused by printing too much money. Since then, you can always count on someone to resurrect Friedman’s ghost and blame the government for spending too much money.
Friedman’s approach, like much of economic theory, sounds plausible at first glance. Inflation is defined as a widespread increase in prices. Because prices are nothing more than the exchange of money, more money in circulation means higher prices. As a result, inflation is a monetary phenomenon that occurs “always and everywhere.”
Unfortunately, closer examination reveals that this reasoning is flawed. The issue is that it considers inflation to be a consistent increase in prices. This is technically correct, but empirically incorrect. In the actual world, inflation rates vary greatly. At the same time when the price of apples grows by 5%, the price of vehicles could climb by 50%, while the price of apparel could drop by 20%.
We must look at real-world data rather than economics textbooks to comprehend inflation as it currently occurs. Jonathan Nitzan, a political economist, did just that during his PhD studies in the early 1990s. His dissertation, Inflation As Restructuring, was the result of his efforts. Price change is always ‘differential’ in the real world, according to Nitzan, which means there are winners and losers. As a result, inflation is no longer solely a “monetary phenomenon,” as Milton Friedman argued. The social order is restructured by inflation.
This is the most essential aspect of inflation in the actual world, because it indicates a shift in society’s power structure. Mainstream economists, predictably, disregard this real-world trait, primarily because it contradicts their tidy explanation of inflation as a’monetary phenomenon.’ Thankfully, the evidence is unmistakable. Inflation is highly differential (and has always been). Inflation is reorganizing the economy.
It’s worth remembering the real-world facts today, when inflation fears resurface and Friedman’s ghost resurfaces.
The quantity theory of money
Let’s start with Milton Friedman’s ‘quantity theory of money,’ which claims that issuing too much money inevitably causes inflation. 1 The theory, like so much of neoclassical economics, is a blend of two things:
Friedman’s renowned ‘F-twist,’ in which he claimed that a theory’s assumptions are irrelevant, added to the strength of this combo. Friedman asserted that all that mattered is that the theory delivers correct predictions.
Friedman’s F-twist allows faulty assumptions to go unchallenged. However, there is still the issue of foresight. How can you make sure your theory is supported by evidence? Neoclassical economists have devised a neat method in this regard: frame your hypothesis in terms of an accounting identity. Any ‘test’ of the theory will come out in your favor because the identity is true by definition.
An old trick
Let’s take a look at some other applications of this accounting-identity method before we come to Friedman’s inflation theory. An accounting identity is used by neoclassical economists to test their theory of income (the theory of marginal productivity). They link two different types of income (typically sales and wages) and label one of them as ‘productivity.’ They always find a correlation, thus their income theory is always ‘confirmed.’ Nifty!
Then there’s the neoclassical economic growth theory. According to the idea, economic output is guided by a ‘production function,’ which specifies how capital, labor, and ‘technological development’ are translated into economic output. And, guess what? This strategy appears to have a lot of empirical backing. The issue, as Anwar Shaikh points out, is that the production function is essentially a reorganization of a national-accounting identity. Because it is true by definition, the production function ‘works.’ Nice!
Milton’s money
Returning to Milton Friedman’s inflationary theory. Friedman, like any good neoclassical economist, bases his thesis on an accounting identity one that connects the amount of money M to the average price level P:
In 2022, what caused inflation?
The higher-than-average economic inflation that began in early 2021 over much of the world is known as the 20212022 inflation spike. The global supply chain problem triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, as well as weak budgetary policies by numerous countries, particularly the United States, and unexpected demand for certain items, have all been blamed. As a result, many countries are seeing their highest inflation rates in decades.
Is inflation beneficial to landlords?
Rising rental property rates are likely positives during periods of high inflation. It might be difficult to obtain a mortgage during periods of high inflation. Because high mortgage rates limit buyers’ purchasing power, many people continue to rent. Increased rental rates arise from the boost in demand, which is wonderful for landlords. While appreciation is a different market study, in general, in an inflationary economy, housing values tend to rise. People require roofs over their heads regardless of the value of their currency, hence real estate has intrinsic value. You’ll almost certainly have a line out the door if you can offer advantageous rates for private mortgages.
The increasing cost of borrowing debt is one of the potential downsides for a real estate investor during inflationary times. To avoid being shorted, the bank will charge higher interest rates and provide fewer loans. Another downside is the increased cost of construction materials for new residences. New building can be a tough investment during inflation due to the high cost of borrowing and the increased expense of construction. When money is tight, travel is frequently one of the first things to go. Vacation rentals, tourist destinations, and retirement communities may not perform as well as other real estate investments.
Governments seek inflation for what reason?
Question from a reader: Why does inflation make it easier for governments to repay their debts?
During the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, when inflation was quite high, the national debt as a percentage of GDP dropped dramatically. Deflation and massive debt characterized the 1920s and 1930s.
Inflation makes it easier for a government to pay its debt for a variety of reasons, especially when inflation is larger than planned. In conclusion:
- Nominal tax collections rise as inflation rises (if prices are higher, the government will collect more VAT, workers pay more income tax)
- Higher inflation lowers the actual worth of debt; bondholders with fixed interest rates will see their bonds’ real value diminish, making it easier for the government to repay them.
- Higher inflation allows the government to lock income tax levels, allowing more workers to pay higher tax rates thereby increasing tax revenue without raising rates.
Why inflation can benefit the government at the expense of bondholders
- Let’s pretend that an economy has 0% inflation and that people anticipate it to stay that way.
- Let’s say the government needs to borrow 2 billion and sells 1,000 30-year bonds to the private sector. The government may give a 2% annual interest rate to entice individuals to acquire bonds.
- The government will thereafter be required to repay the full amount of the bonds (1,000) as well as the annual interest payments (20 per year at 2%).
- Investors who purchase the bonds will profit. The bond yield (2%) is higher than the inflation rate. They get their bonds back, plus interest.
- Assume, however, that inflation of 10% occurred unexpectedly. Money loses its worth as a result of this. As prices rise as a result of inflation, 1,000 will buy fewer products and services.
- As salaries and prices rise, the government will receive more tax money as a result of inflation (for example, if prices rise 10%, the government’s VAT receipts will rise 10%).
- As a result, inflation aids the government in collecting more tax income.
- Bondholders, on the other hand, lose out. The government still owes only 1,000 in repayment. However, inflation has lowered the value of that 1,000 bond (it now has a real value of 900). Because the inflation rate (ten percent) is higher than the bond’s interest rate (two percent), their funds are losing actual value.
- Because of inflation, repaying bondholders needs a lesser percentage of the government’s overall tax collection, making it easier for the government to repay the original loan.
As a result of inflation, the government (borrower) is better off, whereas bondholders (savers) are worse off.
Evaluation (index-linked bonds)
Some bondholders will purchase index-linked bonds as a result of this risk. This means that if inflation rises, the maturity value and interest rate on the bond will rise in lockstep with inflation, protecting the bond’s real value. The government does not benefit from inflation in this instance since it pays greater interest payments and is unable to discount the debt through inflation.
Inflation and benefits
Inflation is expected to peak at 6.2 percent in 2022 in the United Kingdom, resulting in a significant increase in nominal tax receipts. The government, on the other hand, has expanded benefits and public sector salaries at a lower inflation rate. In April 2022, inflation-linked benefits and tax credits will increase by 3.1%, as determined by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate in September 2021.
As a result, public employees and benefit recipients will suffer a genuine drop in income their benefits will increase by 3.1 percent, but inflation might reach 6.2 percent. The government’s financial condition will improve in this case by increasing benefits at a slower rate than inflation.
Only by making the purposeful decision to raise benefits and wages at a slower rate than inflation can debt be reduced.
Inflation and bracket creep
Another approach for the government to benefit from inflation is to maintain a constant income tax level. The basic rate of income tax (20%), for example, begins at 12,501. At 50,000, the tax rate is 40%, and at 150,000, the tax rate is 50%. As a result of inflation, nominal earnings will rise, and more workers will begin to pay higher rates of income tax. As a result, even though the tax rate appears to be unchanged, the government has effectively raised average tax rates.
Long Term Implications of inflation on bonds
People will be hesitant to buy bonds if they expect low inflation and subsequently lose the real worth of their savings due to high inflation. They know that inflation might lower the value of bondholders’ money.
If bondholders are concerned that the government will generate inflation, greater bond rates will be desired to compensate for the risk of losing money due to inflation. As a result, the likelihood of high inflation may make borrowing more onerous for the government.
Bondholders may not expect zero inflation; yet, bondholders are harmed by unexpected inflation.
Example Post War Britain
Inflation was fairly low throughout the 1930s. This is one of the reasons why individuals were willing to pay low interest rates for UK government bonds (in the 1950s, the national debt increased to over 230 percent of GDP). Inflationary effects lowered the debt burden in the postwar period, making it simpler for the government to satisfy its repayment obligations.
In the 1970s, unexpected inflation (due to an oil price shock) aided in the reduction of government debt burdens in a number of countries, including the United States.
Inflation helped to expedite the decline of UK national debt as a percentage of GDP in the postwar period, lowering the real burden of debt. However, debt declined as a result of a sustained period of economic development and increased tax collections.
Economic Growth and Government Debt
Another concern is that if the government reflates the economy (for example, by pursuing quantitative easing), it may increase both economic activity and inflation. A higher GDP is a crucial component in the government’s ability to raise more tax money to pay off its debt.
Bondholders may be concerned about an economy that is expected to experience deflation and negative growth. Although deflation might increase the real value of bonds, they may be concerned that the economy is stagnating too much and that the government would struggle to satisfy its debt obligations.
Is inflation beneficial to stocks?
Consumers, stocks, and the economy may all suffer as a result of rising inflation. When inflation is high, value stocks perform better, and when inflation is low, growth stocks perform better. When inflation is high, stocks become more volatile.
Who is the most affected by inflation?
Inflation, which is always a key economic indicator, is especially important to monitor right now because it threatens to undermine, if not completely erode, the Biden administration’s massive spending on behalf of poor and working-class Americansits “economic justice” agenda (“Inflation Jumps to 13-Year High,” Page One, June 11). For poorer people, the effects of inflation are not just larger, but disproportionately greater. Price rises (for products and services) are often countered by greater income for those with higher earnings. Furthermore, prices for essential necessities sometimes rise faster than prices for luxury things, a phenomena economists refer to as “price inflation.” “Inflation disparity.” Simply put, low-income families’ budgets will be strained as they face higher costs for the necessities they require (food, energy, transport, child care).
Too often, the economic well-being of the most economically vulnerable Americans is described in terms of the most recent Washington program or policy. Those who act in the name of the “If we want to properly comprehend what’s happening not just to the economy in general but specifically to the most vulnerable within it, we need to pay more attention to basic economic indicators like employment rates by demographic group, incomes, and, yes, inflation.