Inflation is defined as a steady increase in the price level. Inflation means that money loses its purchasing power and can buy fewer products than before.
- Inflation will assist people with huge debts, making it simpler to repay their debts as prices rise.
Losers from inflation
Savers. Historically, savers have lost money due to inflation. When prices rise, money loses its worth, and savings lose their true value. People who had saved their entire lives, for example, could have the value of their savings wiped out during periods of hyperinflation since their savings became effectively useless at higher prices.
Inflation and Savings
This graph depicts a US Dollar’s purchasing power. The worth of a dollar decreases during periods of increased inflation, such as 1945-46 and the mid-1970s. Between 1940 and 1982, the value of one dollar plummeted by 85 percent, from 700 to 100.
- If a saver can earn an interest rate higher than the rate of inflation, they will be protected against inflation. If, for example, inflation is 5% and banks offer a 7% interest rate, those who save in a bank will nevertheless see a real increase in the value of their funds.
If we have both high inflation and low interest rates, savers are far more likely to lose money. In the aftermath of the 2008 credit crisis, for example, inflation soared to 5% (owing to cost-push reasons), while interest rates were slashed to 0.5 percent. As a result, savers lost money at this time.
Workers with fixed-wage contracts are another group that could be harmed by inflation. Assume that workers’ wages are frozen and that inflation is 5%. It means their salaries will buy 5% less at the end of the year than they did at the beginning.
CPI inflation was higher than nominal wage increases from 2008 to 2014, resulting in a real wage drop.
Despite the fact that inflation was modest (by UK historical norms), many workers saw their real pay decline.
- Workers in non-unionized jobs may be particularly harmed by inflation since they have less negotiating leverage to seek higher nominal salaries to keep up with growing inflation.
- Those who are close to poverty will be harmed the most during this era of negative real wages. Higher-income people will be able to absorb a drop in real wages. Even a small increase in pricing might make purchasing products and services more challenging. Food banks were used more frequently in the UK from 2009 to 2017.
- Inflation in the UK was over 20% in the 1970s, yet salaries climbed to keep up with growing inflation, thus workers continued to see real wage increases. In fact, in the 1970s, growing salaries were a source of inflation.
Inflationary pressures may prompt the government or central bank to raise interest rates. A higher borrowing rate will result as a result of this. As a result, homeowners with variable mortgage rates may notice considerable increases in their monthly payments.
The UK underwent an economic boom in the late 1980s, with high growth but close to 10% inflation; as a result of the overheating economy, the government hiked interest rates. This resulted in a sharp increase in mortgage rates, which was generally unanticipated. Many homeowners were unable to afford increasing mortgage payments and hence defaulted on their obligations.
Indirectly, rising inflation in the 1980s increased mortgage payments, causing many people to lose their homes.
- Higher inflation, on the other hand, does not always imply higher interest rates. There was cost-push inflation following the 2008 recession, but the Bank of England did not raise interest rates (they felt inflation would be temporary). As a result, mortgage holders witnessed lower variable rates and lower mortgage payments as a percentage of income.
Inflation that is both high and fluctuating generates anxiety for consumers, banks, and businesses. There is a reluctance to invest, which could result in poorer economic growth and fewer job opportunities. As a result, increased inflation is linked to a decline in economic prospects over time.
If UK inflation is higher than that of our competitors, UK goods would become less competitive, and exporters will see a drop in demand and find it difficult to sell their products.
Winners from inflation
Inflationary pressures might make it easier to repay outstanding debt. Businesses will be able to raise consumer prices and utilize the additional cash to pay off debts.
- However, if a bank borrowed money from a bank at a variable mortgage rate. If inflation rises and the bank raises interest rates, the cost of debt repayments will climb.
Inflation can make it easier for the government to pay off its debt in real terms (public debt as a percent of GDP)
This is especially true if inflation exceeds expectations. Because markets predicted low inflation in the 1960s, the government was able to sell government bonds at cheap interest rates. Inflation was higher than projected in the 1970s and higher than the yield on a government bond. As a result, bondholders experienced a decrease in the real value of their bonds, while the government saw a reduction in the real value of its debt.
In the 1970s, unexpected inflation (due to an oil price shock) aided in the reduction of government debt burdens in a number of countries, including the United States.
The nominal value of government debt increased between 1945 and 1991, although inflation and economic growth caused the national debt to shrink as a percentage of GDP.
Those with savings may notice a quick drop in the real worth of their savings during a period of hyperinflation. Those who own actual assets, on the other hand, are usually safe. Land, factories, and machines, for example, will keep their value.
During instances of hyperinflation, demand for assets such as gold and silver often increases. Because gold cannot be printed, it cannot be subjected to the same inflationary forces as paper money.
However, it is important to remember that purchasing gold during a period of inflation does not ensure an increase in real value. This is due to the fact that the price of gold is susceptible to speculative pressures. The price of gold, for example, peaked in 1980 and then plummeted.
Holding gold, on the other hand, is a method to secure genuine wealth in a way that money cannot.
Bank profit margins tend to expand during periods of negative real interest rates. Lending rates are greater than saving rates, with base rates near zero and very low savings rates.
Anecdotal evidence
Germany’s inflation rate reached astronomical levels between 1922 and 1924, making it a good illustration of high inflation.
Middle-class workers who had put a lifetime’s earnings into their pension fund discovered that it was useless in 1924. One middle-class clerk cashed his retirement fund and used money to buy a cup of coffee after working for 40 years.
Fear, uncertainty, and bewilderment arose as a result of the hyperinflation. People reacted by attempting to purchase anything physical such as buttons or cloth that might carry more worth than money.
However, not everyone was affected in the same way. Farmers fared handsomely as food prices continued to increase. Due to inflation, which reduced the real worth of debt, businesses that had borrowed huge sums realized that their debts had practically vanished. These companies could take over companies that had gone out of business due to inflationary costs.
Inflation this high can cause enormous resentment since it appears to be an unfair means to allocate wealth from savers to borrowers.
Who is the most affected by rising inflation?
The recent inflation spike is disproportionately affecting low-income people, with increased energy prices being the main driver.
Who will suffer from inflation?
Inflation has few hiding spots for consumers and investors, which means it can have disastrous effects for the economy. Consumers’ dollars don’t purchase as much as they used to, so many individuals may decide to cut back on spending – especially if they don’t get a pay boost to compensate for higher prices. This might limit demand, jeopardizing corporate profitability and employment opportunities.
Similar to what happened in the 1970s and 1980s, the Fed may be obliged to interfere by raising interest rates. Higher borrowing costs make financing new enterprises and homes, which are critical to a growing economy, more expensive.
“The one constant in periods of tremendous growth in the United States’ history has been a relatively moderate rate of inflation,” McBride argues.
Which businesses will gain from inflation?
Due to supply-side interruptions and bottlenecks caused by the epidemic, labor shortages, and exceptional demand for goods and services following the lifting of lockdowns, prices have been moving higher. Now, a recent increase in daily Covid-19 infections in the United States to around 760,000 in the previous week, owing to the emergence of the highly infectious omicron virus type, might further disrupt supply, pushing inflation higher. That said, it’s already a foregone conclusion that the Federal Reserve will proceed with its plans to raise interest rates multiple times this year, with the first boost expected in March.
While stocks often outperform bonds during periods of high inflation, our Inflation Stocks theme includes companies in the banking, insurance, consumer staples, and energy sectors that may gain more from high inflation and potentially higher interest rates. Over the course of 2022, the theme has returned a healthy 6%, compared to a -2 percent drop in the S&P 500. Over the course of 2021, the theme returned around 21%, underperforming the S&P 500, which returned about 27%. Exxon Mobil has been the best performer in our subject, gaining by 49 percent in the last 12 months. Citigroup, on the other hand, has been the worst performer over the last year, with its shares maintaining nearly flat.
RELATED: Inflation: Gas prices will get even higher
Inflation is defined as a rise in the price of goods and services in an economy over time. When there is too much money chasing too few products, inflation occurs. After the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates low to try to boost the economy. More people borrowed money and spent it on products and services as a result of this. Prices will rise when there is a greater demand for goods and services than what is available, as businesses try to earn a profit. Increases in the cost of manufacturing, such as rising fuel prices or labor, can also produce inflation.
There are various reasons why inflation may occur in 2022. The first reason is that since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, oil prices have risen dramatically. As a result, petrol and other transportation costs have increased. Furthermore, in order to stimulate the economy, the Fed has kept interest rates low. As a result, more people are borrowing and spending money, contributing to inflation. Finally, wages have been increasing in recent years, putting upward pressure on pricing.
Who benefits from this inflation quiz?
The lower actual inflation benefits everyone. Borrowers benefit, while lenders lose. The lenders benefit, while the borrowers suffer. Assume that the nominal interest rate is 5.4 percent and the actual interest rate is 2.1 percent.
Should you invest in equities while inflation is high?
Consumers, stocks, and the economy may all suffer as a result of rising inflation. When inflation is high, value stocks perform better, and when inflation is low, growth stocks perform better. When inflation is high, stocks become more volatile.
How can I plan for inflation in 2022?
With the consumer price index rising at a rate not seen in over 40 years in 2021, the investing challenge for 2022 is generating meaningful profits in the face of very high inflation. Real estate, commodities, and consumer cyclical equities are all traditional inflation-resistant assets. Others, like as tourism, semiconductors, and infrastructure-related investments, may do well during this inflationary cycle as a result of the pandemic’s special circumstances. Cash, bonds, and growth stocks, on the other hand, look to be less appealing in today’s market.
Do you want to learn more about diversifying your investing portfolio? Contact a financial advisor right away.
Do bank stocks do well during periods of inflation?
Inflation is often viewed as a positive for banks, as it increases net interest revenue and profits. However, top bankers caution that if inflation rises too quickly, it might become a drag.
Inflation, according to Goldman Sachs Chief Operating Officer John Waldron, is the most serious threat to the world economy and stock markets.
Last month, JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon told analysts that rising inflation and high interest rates raise the potential of dramatic price fluctuations, and that banks “should be concerned.”
According to one senior banker at a European bank with significant U.S. operations, a sustained period of higher inflation would pose credit and market risk to banks, which they are examining in internal stress tests.
Another banker said risk teams are also keeping an eye on loan exposures in the sectors most hit by inflation. Companies from the consumer discretionary, industrial, and manufacturing sectors are among them.
“We’re quite engaged with those clients, giving hedging protections,” the banker added, declining to be identified because client conversations are private.
Clients who may want additional cash to get through a period of rising inflation are encouraged to raise capital while interest rates are still low, according to the banker.
“If you need money, it’s still a great atmosphere to be in, but it won’t stay forever.”
Higher inflation and monetary tightening are also being considered by investment bankers as potential disruptions to record deals and public offering pipelines.
“We expect higher inflation to persist, and monetary tightening might hinder the M&A market’s momentum,” said Paul Colone, managing partner of Alantra, a global mid-market investment bank based in the United States.
“Evaluate the risks sustained inflation could bring to both value and business results,” Colone said. Alantra advises clients in the early phases of M&A conversations to “review the risks sustained inflation may bring to both valuation and business results.”
Meanwhile, sales and trading teams are receiving increasing calls from clients trying to reposition portfolios that are at risk of losing value. When inflation became uncontrollable in the 1970s, stock indices in the United States took a beating.
Chris McReynolds, Barclays’ head of U.S. inflation trading, said, “We’re seeing greater interest from clients in obtaining some kind of inflation protection.”
Inflation in the Treasury Protected Securities, which are issued and backed by the US government, are becoming increasingly popular, according to him. The securities are comparable to Treasury bonds, but they are inflation-protected.
Traders are also seeing an increase in demand for derivatives that provide inflation protection, such as zero-coupon inflation swaps, which exchange a fixed rate payment on an investment for a payout based on the rate of inflation.
“People are recognizing that they are exposed to inflation and that it makes sense to hedge their assets and obligations,” McReynolds said.
Most observers believe that banks with varied businesses will benefit best during a prolonged period of inflation.
They forecast a steepening yield curve to boost overall profit margins, while trading businesses will gain from greater volatility and deal strength, and investment banking activity will stay solid due to IPO pipelines.
Dick Bove, a well-known independent banking analyst, has a different perspective. He expects the yield curve to flatten as interest rates rise, lowering inflation expectations and squeezing company margins.
“Bank stock prices may soar for as long as 12 to 18 months,” he said. “However, if inflation continues to climb, bank stock multiples will fall, and bank stock prices will follow.”
In 2021, which country will have the highest inflation rate?
Japan has the lowest inflation rate of the major developed and emerging economies in November 2021, at 0.6 percent (compared to the same month of the previous year). On the other end of the scale, Brazil had the highest inflation rate in the same month, at 10.06 percent.