Have you ever questioned the significance of GDP? What’s more, why do we need to know about GDP? The answer can be found in this article.
The market value of the final goods and services produced in a country at a given period is known as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Whether the output is generated by internal or external resources is irrelevant. Simon Kuznets, a Russian economist, invented the term. The gross domestic product (GDP) can be used to gauge a country’s population’s standard of life. The following is the formula for computing GDP.
The consumption value of the private and public sectors is denoted by the letter C. (Private Consumption). Almost all personal expenses are included, including food, medicine, rent, medicine, and the purchase of a new car. Excludes the cost of a used car and does not include the cost of a new home.
I, or investment, is the value of private capital goods investments, such as new mine construction, software purchases, and plant equipment purchases. The cost of a new home for the family is also included in the investment. However, purchasing financial assets such as stocks or debentures is a savings rather than an investment. Because it is merely a legal document replacement, it is not counted in GDP. Because the money is not exchanged for products or services, it is not considered part of the actual economy. It’s merely a money transfer.
The total cost of government purchases of final products and services is referred to as G. This comprises government officials’ wages, military equipment purchases, and state investment costs. However, payments such as social assistance and unemployment compensation are not included.
GDP is critical to the economy because it requires a constant flow of income and spending from the household and government sectors, both domestically and internationally. That people have jobs, money to spend on goods and services, and are able to pay taxes to the government. And if there is any money left over (savings), it can be put into a bank account, invested in a business, or invested in stocks and mutual funds.
Why are stocks removed from the GDP calculation?
Because they do not entail production, financial transactions and income transfers are omitted. Stocks and other financial instruments such as bonds, mutual funds, and certificates of deposit are purchased and sold to transfer ownership from one person or organization to another.
Why are stocks and bonds excluded from GDP calculations?
The amount of products and services generated in the market is measured by GDP. Investing in such financial products produces no value that can be added to the GDP. They aren’t products or services that are available on the market.
What is excluded from GDP?
Assume Kelly, a former economist who is now an opera singer, has been asked to perform in the United Kingdom. Simultaneously, an American computer business manufactures and sells all of its computers in Germany, while a German company manufactures and sells all of its automobiles within American borders. Economists need to know what is and is not counted.
The GDP only includes products and services produced in the country. This means that commodities generated by Americans outside of the United States will not be included in the GDP calculation. When a singer from the United States performs a concert outside of the United States, it is not counted. Foreign goods and services produced and sold within our domestic boundaries, on the other hand, are included in the GDP. When a well-known British musician tours the United States or a foreign car business manufactures and sells cars in the United States, the production is counted.
There are no used items included. These transactions are not reflected in the GDP when Jennifer buys a lawnmower from her father or Megan resells a book she received from her father. Only newly manufactured items – even those that grow in value – are eligible.
What items are excluded from GDP calculations?
The current value of all final products and services produced in a country in a year is defined as GDP. What do you mean by final goods? At the end of the year, they are commodities or services in the last stages of production. When calculating GDP, statisticians must avoid the error of double counting, which occurs when output is counted more than once as it moves through the stages of production. Consider what would happen if government statisticians first tallied the value of tires manufactured by a tire manufacturer, then the value of a new truck sold by a carmaker that included those tires. Because the value of the truck already includes the value of the tires, the value of the tires would have been counted twice in this scenario.
To avoid this problem, which would greatly exaggerate the size of the economy, government statisticians measure GDP at the end of the year by counting only the value of final goods and services in the production chain. Intermediate products are not included in GDP statistics since they are used in the creation of other items.
In the case above, government statisticians would calculate the value of the truck plus the value of any tires made but not yet installed on trucks, because those tires are counted as final products at the end of the year. When new trucks are put on the road next year, GDP will include the value of the new trucks minus the value of the tires counted this year. If this seems difficult, keep in mind that the goal is to only count items that are generated once.
GDP is a simple concept: it is the monetary value of all final products and services generated in the economy in a given year. Calculating the more than $16 trillion-dollar U.S. GDPalong with how it changes every few monthsis a full-time job for a brigade of government statisticians in our decentralized, market-oriented economy.
- Raw materials that have been manufactured but have yet to be employed in the manufacture of intermediate or final items.
- Intermediate goods and services that have been transformed into finished products and services (e.g. tires on a new truck)
Take note of the elements in the list above that are not included in GDP. Because used products were produced in a prior year and are included in that year’s GDP, they are not included. Transfer payments, such as Social Security, are payments made by the government to people. Because transfers do not represent output, they are not included in GDP. Non-marketed products and services, such as those produced at home, such as when you clean your house, are not counted because they are not sold in the marketplace. If you hire Merry Maids to clean your house, on the other hand, your payments are recognized as part of GDP because the transaction is considered to have occurred in the marketplace. Finally, the underground economy of “under the table” services, as well as any other illicit sales, should be counted, but they aren’t because they aren’t disclosed in any way. According to a recent analysis by Friedrich Schneider of Shadow Economies, the underground sector in the United States accounted for 6.6 percent of GDP in 2013, or about $2 trillion.
The Expenditure Approach is a method used by economists to estimate GDP. Let’s have a look at that now.
Is the stock market affected by GDP?
A country’s GDP measures both its economic growth and its residents’ purchasing power. As a result, the growth of India’s GDP will affect the success of your investment portfolio. We’ll learn what GDP is, how it’s calculated, and how a change in GDP affects your financial portfolio in this post. Let’s start with the fundamentals.
What is GDP?
A country’s GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, is the total value of products and services generated over a given time period. GDP statistics is calculated in India for each financial year, which runs from April 1 to March 31. The information is published on a quarterly and annual basis.
GDP statistics is a measure of a country’s economic health. A high rate of GDP growth suggests that the economy is growing and doing well. A negative GDP growth rate, on the other hand, implies that the economy has contracted and is not in good shape.
To address the expanding needs of the enormous population in a developing economy like India, a high GDP growth rate is essential. We can do so by investing heavily in infrastructure such as roads, railways, healthcare, and education, among other things.
How is GDP calculated in India?
The National Accounts Division (NAD), which is part of the Central Statistical Office in India, compiles and prepares GDP data (CSO). The GDP statistics is released by the CSO, which is part of the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MoSPI).
Expenditure method
The expenditure-based method shows how the Indian economy’s various sectors are performing.
- The amount spent by households on goods and services is referred to as private consumption.
- The term “gross investment” refers to the amount of money spent on capital goods by the private sector.
- Government spending refers to how much money the government spends on things like paying employees’ salaries, pensions, subsidies, and running social programs, among other things.
Value Addition Method
India also uses the Gross Value Addition (GVA) Method or Value Addition Method to calculate GDP. As it goes through the supply chain, each sector of the economy adds value. The GVA approach calculates GDP by taking into consideration the following eight sectors:
The nominal GDP is calculated first when computing GDP. After that, it’s corrected for inflation, and the real GDP is calculated.
India’s GDP in the last few quarters
India’s quarterly GDP data for the last three years is depicted in the figure above. Positive increase was seen in the first quarter of 2020. Following that, COVID-19 struck, resulting in two quarters of negative growth. The Indian economy recovered from the pandemic’s effects in the fourth quarter of 2020, growing at a rate of 1.6 percent.
India’s GDP growth over the last decade
From 2012 to 2016, India’s GDP grew at a faster rate every year, as shown in the graph above. However, beginning in 2017, growth began to decline until 2019. COVID-19’s impact at the start of 2020 exacerbated the situation.
How a change in GDP affects your investment portfolio
Stock markets are directly associated with a country’s GDP, according to the general rule. India is no different. Because markets and GDP are intimately interrelated, your investment portfolio is also directly correlated with GDP.
- The stock markets will be energized by a positive shift in the GDP (a higher GDP growth number), and the market will rise as a result. If the stock market rises, it will have a beneficial impact on your investment portfolio.
- A negative change in the GDP (a lower GDP growth statistic or a GDP contraction) will undoubtedly cause the financial markets to react negatively. As a result, the stock market will fall. If the stock market falls, it will have a negative influence on your investment portfolio.
There is a positive association between India’s GDP growth and the NIFTY 50 Index, as shown in the graph above:
- India’s GDP expanded at an annual pace of roughly 8% from 2004 to 2008. During this time, the NIFTY 50 Index climbed from 2000 to 4000 points. During this time, your investment portfolio should have done well.
- The subprime mortgage crisis hit the United States in 2008-2009, with global ramifications. During this time, India’s GDP growth slowed from 8% to roughly 3%, and the NIFTY 50 Index dropped from highs of 4000 to lows of 3000. During this time, it would have had a detrimental influence on your financial portfolio.
- Between 2009 and 2011, the GDP recovered, and the NIFTY 50 Index did as well. Your financial portfolio would have rebounded as well.
- GDP growth slowed between 2011 and 2013, owing to reasons such as high crude oil prices, high inflation, and the European debt crisis, among others. During this time, the NIFTY 50 Index also saw a correction. Your investment portfolio would have suffered as well.
- The GDP increased significantly from 2013 to 2018, surpassing 8% for the second time. During this time, the NIFTY 50 Index performed admirably. During this time, your investment portfolio would have produced impressive gains.
- In recent years, the direct association between GDP growth and the NIFTY 50 Index appears to have weakened. In truth, there is a significant gap between the two. So, despite the fact that GDP growth has slowed, your investment portfolio has produced excellent results.
Divergence between GDP growth and stock markets
The relationship between GDP growth and stock markets is usually direct, as shown in the graph above, but this is not always the case. The Nifty 50 Index and GDP growth headed in different directions in 2019, and this trend persisted in 2020 and 2021. The following things may contribute to such a scenario:
Stock markets that are always looking ahead: Stock markets are always looking ahead. So, even if GDP growth is currently modest, the stock markets are anticipating strong GDP growth in the future and are trading at higher levels as a result.
High liquidity: In the previous year and a half, central banks and governments around the world, including India, have implemented various stimulus initiatives to mitigate the impact of COVID-19. People have received cash as a result of this. The majority of this money has been placed in the stock markets, which has resulted in greater stock market trading levels.
Other than stock, there aren’t many investing options: To counteract the pandemic’s effects and jump-start the economy, the RBI slashed interest rates dramatically. As a result, banks’ fixed deposit rates have dropped to multi-year lows. When the pandemic hit, gold spiked, but it has since adjusted and remained static. As a result, except from stock, Indian individual investors have few other investing options. As a result, most investors have put their money into stocks, causing the NIFTY 50 Index to rise.
Foreign fund flows: In the recent year, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have invested massive sums of money in Indian stock markets, in addition to Indian ordinary investors. The NIFTY 50 Index has also risen as a result of this.
Better company profitability: The pandemic has impacted the whole Indian corporate sector. The unlisted economy, SMEs, MSMEs, and the informal economy continue to suffer. Large publicly traded corporations, on the other hand, have been able to weather the storm much more quickly and effectively. As a result, huge publicly traded firms’ profits have increased, and their stock values have increased, causing the NIFTY 50 Index to rise.
Divergence between GDP growth and stock markets is temporary
We’ve seen how the GDP growth rate and stock market performance can diverge. This type of divergence, however, is just transitory and will be corrected at some point. Either the GDP growth rate will rebound and the Indian economy will return to its previous high growth rate, or the stock market will correct in tandem with the low GDP growth rate in the future.
India’s GDP growth rate has a better chance of increasing than the stock market falling. Still, only time will tell what will transpire. What appears likely is that, over time, the pace of GDP growth and the stock market will re-establish a direct relationship.
Last words
You would be getting strong returns on your investment portfolio right now, even if GDP growth is sluggish. However, this may not last long, therefore let’s hope India’s GDP growth picks up rapidly so that our current investment returns remain stable and grow in the future. In the long run, proper asset allocation will ensure that your investment portfolio earns the best possible returns, even if GDP growth is sluggish. When the equity markets are performing poorly, the debt and gold sections of your investing portfolio can provide good returns. As a result, ensure that you have a suitable asset allocation between equity, gold, debt, and other assets, so that you can continue to achieve optimal returns regardless of GDP growth.
Are they excluded from nominal GDP?
Government salaries, such as those of police officers, teachers, and judges, are included in nominal GDP as part of government purchases. Nominal GDP does not include salaries in the private sector.
What effect does GDP have on prices?
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary value, or market value, of finished products and services produced inside a country over a given time period, usually a year or quarter. It’s a measure of domestic production in this sense, and it can be used to assess a country’s economic health.
Nominal GDP vs. Real GDP
Depending on how it’s computed, GDP is usually expressed in two ways: nominal GDP and real GDP.
Nominal GDP analyzes broad changes in an economy’s value over time by accounting for current market prices without taking deflation or inflation into consideration. Real GDP takes into account inflation and the overall growth in price levels, making it a more accurate measure of a country’s economic health.
Because it provides more value and insight, this paper will primarily focus on real GDP.