There are two things that stand out. The Indian economy began to revive in March 2013 more than a year before the current government took office after a period of contraction following the Global Financial Crisis.
But, more importantly, since the third quarter of 2016-17 (October to December), this recovery has transformed into a secular slowing of growth. While the RBI did not declare so, many experts believe the government’s move to demonetise 86 percent of India’s currency overnight on November 8, 2016, was the catalyst that sent the country’s GDP into a tailspin.
The GDP growth rate steadily fell from over 8% in FY17 to around 4% in FY20, just before Covid-19 hit the country, as the ripples of demonetisation and a poorly designed and hastily implemented Goods and Services Tax (GST) spread through an economy already struggling with massive bad loans in the banking system.
PM Modi voiced hope in January 2020, when GDP growth fell to a 42-year low (in terms of nominal GDP), saying: “The Indian economy’s high absorbent capacity demonstrates the strength of the country’s foundations and its ability to recover.”
The foundations of the Indian economy were already weak in January last year well before the outbreak as an examination of key factors shows. For example, in the recent past (Chart 2), India’s GDP growth trend mirrored an exponential development pattern “Even before Covid-19 came the market, there was a “inverted V.”
What factors contribute to low GDP?
Shifts in demand, rising interest rates, government expenditure cuts, and other factors can cause a country’s real GDP to fall. It’s critical for you to understand how this figure changes over time as a business owner so you can alter your sales methods accordingly.
Is India a country with a low GDP?
India’s economy is a developing market economy with a middle income. It has the sixth-largest nominal GDP and the third-largest purchasing power parity economy in the world (PPP). According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India ranks 145th by nominal GDP and 122nd by nominal GDP per capita (PPP). From 1947 through 1991, consecutive administrations advocated protectionist economic policies that included substantial government intervention and regulation. In the form of the License Raj, this is referred to as dirigism. Following the conclusion of the Cold War and a severe balance-of-payments crisis in 1991, India adopted substantial economic liberalization. Annual average GDP growth has been 6% to 7% since the beginning of the twenty-first century, and India has surpassed China as the world’s fastest growing major economy from 2013 to 2018 and in 2021. From the first through the nineteenth centuries, India had the world’s largest economy for the majority of the two millennia.
The Indian economy’s long-term development prospects remain optimistic, thanks to its young population and low dependency ratio, healthy savings and investment rates, and increasing globalisation and integration into the global economy. Due to the shocks of “demonetisation” in 2016 and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax in 2017, the economy slowed in 2017. Domestic private consumption accounts for over 70% of India’s GDP. The country’s consumer market is still the world’s sixth largest. Apart from individual consumption, government spending, investment, and exports all contribute to India’s GDP. Pandemic had an impact on trade in 2020, with India becoming the world’s 14th largest importer and 21st largest exporter. Since January 1, 1995, India has been a member of the World Trade Organization. On the Ease of Doing Business Index, it is ranked 63rd, while on the Global Competitiveness Report, it is ranked 68th. With 500 million workers, India had the world’s second-largest labor force. India boasts one of the biggest concentrations of billionaires in the world, as well as substantial income disparity. Fewer than 2% of Indians pay income taxes due to a variety of exclusions.
During the global financial crisis of 2008, the economy experienced a little slowdown. To increase economy and generate demand, India implemented fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. Economic growth picked up in the years after that. According to the World Bank, India must focus on public sector reform, infrastructure, agricultural and rural development, removal of land and labor regulations, financial inclusion, boosting private investment and exports, education, and public health in order to achieve sustainable economic development.
The United States, China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea, and Malaysia were India’s ten major trading partners in 2020. India received $74.4 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 201920. The service sector, the computer industry, and the telecom industry were the major sectors for FDI inflows. India has free trade agreements in place or in the works with a number of countries, including ASEAN, SAFTA, Mercosur, South Korea, Japan, and a number of others.
The service sector accounts for half of GDP and is still developing at a rapid pace, while the industrial and agricultural sectors employ the majority of the workforce. By market capitalization, the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange are among the world’s largest stock exchanges. India is the world’s sixth-largest manufacturer, employing over 57 million people and accounting for 3% of global manufacturing output. Rural India accounts for almost 66 percent of the population and accounts for roughly half of the country’s GDP. It has the fourth-largest foreign-exchange reserves in the world, valued at $631.920 billion. India’s national debt is large, at 86 percent of GDP, and its fiscal deficit is 9.5 percent of GDP. The government-owned banks in India were beset with bad debt, resulting in slow lending growth. At the same time, the NBFC sector has been hit by a liquidity problem. India is dealing with moderate unemployment, rising income disparity, and declining aggregate demand. In FY 2019, India’s gross domestic savings rate was 30.1 percent of GDP. Independent economists and financial institutions have accused the government of falsifying different economic figures, particularly GDP growth, in recent years. India’s GDP in the first quarter of FY22 (Rs 32.38 lakh crore) is roughly 9% lower than in the first quarter of FY20 (Rs 35.67 lakh crore) in 2021.
India is the world’s largest maker of generic pharmaceuticals, and its pharmaceutical industry supplies more than half of the world’s vaccination need. With $191 billion in sales and over four million employees, India’s IT industry is a major exporter of IT services. The chemical sector in India is immensely diverse, with a market value of $178 billion. The tourist sector employs approximately 42 million people and provides roughly 9.2% of India’s GDP. India is the world’s second-largest producer of food and agriculture, with $35.09 billion in agricultural exports. In terms of direct, indirect, and induced effects in all sectors of the economy, the construction and real estate sector ranks third among the 14 key industries. The Indian textiles sector is worth $100 billion, contributing 13% of industrial output and 2.3 percent of GDP while directly employing nearly 45 million people. By the number of mobile phone, smartphone, and internet users, India’s telecommunications industry is the world’s second largest. It is both the world’s 23rd and third-largest oil producer and consumer. India has the world’s fifth-largest vehicle sector in terms of production. India’s retail market is valued $1.17 trillion, accounting for almost 10% of the country’s GDP. It also boasts one of the fastest-growing e-commerce markets in the world. India possesses the world’s fourth-largest natural resources, with the mining industry accounting for 11% of industrial GDP and 2.5 percent of total GDP. It’s also the second-largest coal producer, second-largest cement producer, second-largest steel producer, and third-largest electricity generator on the planet.
Is Pakistan poorer than India?
With a GDP of $2,709 billion dollars in 2020, India’s GDP will be about ten times that of Pakistan’s $263 billion dollars. The disparity is larger in nominal terms (almost ten times) than in ppp terms (8.3 times). In nominal terms, India is the world’s fifth largest economy, while in ppp terms, it is the third largest. Pakistan has a nominal ranking of 48 and a PPP ranking of 24. Maharashtra, India’s most economically powerful state, has a GDP of $398 billion, far exceeding Pakistan’s. Tamil Nadu, India’s second-largest economy ($247 billion), is relatively close. The gap between these two countries was at its narrowest in 1993, when India’s nominal GDP was 5.39 times that of Pakistan, and at its widest in 1973. (13.4x).
In terms of gdp per capita, the two countries have been neck and neck. For only five years between 1960 and 2006, India was wealthier than Pakistan. In 1970, Pakistan’s GDP per capita was 1.54 times that of India. Since 2009, the margin has widened in India’s favor. On an exchange rate basis, India’s per capita income was 1.56 times more than Pakistan’s in 2020, with an all-time high of 1.63x in 2019. The previous year, Pakistan was wealthier than India. Both countries rank near the bottom of the world in terms of GDP per capita. India is ranked 147 (nominal) and 130 (absolute) (PPP). Pakistan is ranked 160 (nominal) and 144 in the world (PPP). There are 28 Indian states/UTs that are wealthier than Pakistan.
In 2020, India’s gdp growth rate (-7.97) will be lower than Pakistan’s (-0.39) after 19 years. India’s GDP growth rate reaches a high of 9.63 percent in 1988 and a low of -5.24 percent in 1979. Pakistan’s inflation rate peaked at 11.35 percent in 1970 and peaked at 0.47 percent in 1971. Pakistan expanded by more than 10% in three years from 1961 to 2017, while India never did. India’s GDP growth rate has been negative for four years, whereas Pakistan’s growth rate has never been negative.
According to the CIA Fackbook, India’s GDP composition in 2017 was as follows: agriculture (15.4%), industry (23%), and services (23%). (61.5 percent ). Agriculture (24.7 percent), Industry (19.1 percent), and Services account for the majority of Pakistan’s GDP in 2017. (56.3 percent ).
Is India deteriorating?
Remember that, according to a Pew survey released in March, India’s middle class has dropped by as much as a third, with 3.2 crore dropping into the lower-income category and 3.5 crore slipping from that category to join the ranks of the poor, whose numbers have swelled. If the economic recovery has not been accompanied by a recovery in employment and consumption, the recovery will almost certainly be K-shaped.
Was India wealthy prior to the British occupation?
In a chaotic and institutionally backward India, big adjustments were undoubtedly required. Recognizing the need for change in India in the mid-eighteenth century does not necessitate ignoring as many Indian super-nationalists fear the country’s past tremendous achievements in philosophy, mathematics, literature, arts, architecture, music, medicine, linguistics, and astronomy. Before the colonial period, India had also made significant progress in developing a vibrant economy with booming trade and commerce – the economic riches of India was widely acknowledged by British observers such as Adam Smith.
What can we do to boost GDP?
- AD stands for aggregate demand (consumer spending, investment levels, government spending, exports-imports)
- AS stands for aggregate supply (Productive capacity, the efficiency of economy, labour productivity)
To increase economic growth
1. An increase in total demand
- Lower interest rates lower borrowing costs and boost consumer spending and investment.
- Increased real wages when nominal salaries rise faster than inflation, consumers have more money to spend.
- Depreciation reduces the cost of exports while raising the cost of imports, increasing domestic demand.
- Growing wealth, such as rising house values, encourages people to spend more (since they are more confident and can refinance their home).
This represents a rise in total supply (productive capacity). This can happen as a result of:
- In the nineteenth century, new technologies such as steam power and telegrams aided productivity. In the twenty-first century, the internet, artificial intelligence, and computers are all helping to boost productivity.
- Workers become more productive when new management approaches, such as better industrial relations, are introduced.
- Increased net migration, with a particular emphasis on workers with in-demand skills (e.g. builders, fruit pickers)
- Infrastructure improvements, greater education spending, and other public-sector investments are examples of public-sector investment.
To what extent can the government increase economic growth?
A government can use demand-side and supply-side policies to try to influence the rate of economic growth.
- Cutting taxes to raise disposable income and encourage spending is known as expansionary fiscal policy. Lower taxes, on the other hand, will increase the budget deficit and lead to more borrowing. When there is a drop in consumer expenditure, an expansionary fiscal policy is most appropriate.
- Cutting interest rates can promote domestic demand. Expansionary monetary policy (currently usually set by an independent Central Bank).
- Stability. The government’s primary job is to maintain economic and political stability, which allows for normal economic activity to occur. Uncertainty and political polarization can deter investment and growth.
- Infrastructure investment, such as new roads, railway lines, and broadband internet, boosts productivity and lowers traffic congestion.
Factors beyond the government’s influence
- It is difficult for the government to influence the rate of technical innovation because it tends to come from the private sector.
- The private sector is in charge of labor relations and employee motivation. At best, the government has a minimal impact on employee morale and motivation.
- Entrepreneurs are primarily self-motivated when it comes to starting a firm. Government restrictions and tax rates can have an impact on a business owner’s willingness to take risks.
- The amount of money saved has an impact on growth (e.g. see Harrod-Domar model) Higher savings enable higher investment, yet influencing savings might be difficult for the government.
- Willingness to put forth the effort. The vanquished countries of Germany and Japan had fast economic development in the postwar period, indicating a desire to rebuild after the war. The UK economy was less dynamic, which could be due to different views toward employment and a willingness to try new things.
- Any economy is influenced significantly by global growth. It is extremely difficult for a single economy to avoid the costs of a global recession. The credit crunch of 2009, for example, had a detrimental impact on economic development in OECD countries.
In 2009, the United States, France, and the United Kingdom all went into recession. The greater recovery in the United States, on the other hand, could be attributed to different governmental measures. 2009/10 fiscal policy was expansionary, and monetary policy was looser.
Governments frequently overestimate their ability to boost productivity growth. Without government intervention, the private sector drives the majority of technological advancement. Supply-side measures can help boost efficiency to some level, but how much they can boost growth rates is questionable.
For example, after the 1980s supply-side measures, the government looked for a supply-side miracle that would allow for a significantly quicker pace of economic growth. The Lawson boom of the 1980s, however, proved unsustainable, and the UK’s growth rate stayed relatively constant at roughly 2.5 percent. Supply-side initiatives, at the very least, will take a long time to implement; for example, improving labor productivity through education and training will take many years.
There is far more scope for the government to increase growth rates in developing economies with significant infrastructure failures and a lack of basic amenities.
The potential for higher growth rates is greatly increased by providing basic levels of education and infrastructure.
The private sector is responsible for the majority of productivity increases. With a few exceptions, private companies are responsible for the majority of technical advancements. The great majority of productivity gains in the UK is due to new technologies developed by the private sector. I doubt the government’s ability to invest in new technologies to enhance productivity growth at this rate. (Though it is possible especially in times of conflict)
Economic growth in the UK
The UK economy has risen at a rate of 2.5 percent each year on average since 1945. Most economists believe that the UK’s productive capacity can grow at a rate of roughly 2.5 percent per year on average. The underlying trend rate is also known as the ‘trend rate of growth.’
Even when the government pursued supply-side reforms, they were largely ineffective in changing the long-run trend rate. (For example, in the 1980s, supply-side policies had minimal effect on the long-run trend rate.)
The graph below demonstrates how, since 2008, actual GDP has fallen below the trend rate. Because of the recession and a considerable drop in aggregate demand, this happened.
- Improved private-sector technology that allows for increased labor productivity (e.g. development of computers enables greater productivity)
- Infrastructure investment, such as the construction of new roads and train lines. The government is mostly responsible for this.
What if the GDP is low?
When GDP falls, the economy shrinks, which is terrible news for businesses and people. A recession is defined as a drop in GDP for two quarters in a row, which can result in pay freezes and job losses.
Is India more impoverished than Africa?
Acute poverty is prevalent in eight Indian states, including Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, according to a new UNDP measure termed the Multi-dimensional Poverty Index (MPI). They have more poor people than the 26 poorest African countries put together.
The Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, with UNDP financing, created and used a new measure called the Multidimensional Poverty Index. The indicator reflects the nature and scope of poverty at several levels, ranging from the household to regional, national, and worldwide levels.
According to its designers, there are more poor people in eight Indian states (421 million in Bihar, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, MP, Orissa, Rajasthan, UP, and West Bengal) than there are in the 26 poorest African countries combined (410 million).
Since 1997, the Human Poverty Index has been included in the Annual Human Development Reports, however the MPI has replaced it.
From education to health outcomes to assets and services, the MPI evaluates a variety of essential characteristics or deprivations at the household level. When these indicators are considered combined, they provide a more complete picture of acute poverty than basic income metrics.
India is home to 1/3 of the world’s poor. It also has a higher percentage of people living on less than $2 per day than even Sub-Saharan Africa.
75.6 percent of the population, or 828 million people, live on less than $2 a day.
42% of the population is poor, according to the new international poverty level.
Indians account for 33% of the world’s poor, or 14 billion people. The situation in Sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s poorest region, is improving.
With a monthly per capita consumer spend of Rs 447, 41.8 percent of the rural population makes ends meet.
They barely spend Rs 447 on basic necessities such as food, gasoline, light, and clothing.
According to current estimates from the Planning Commission, India’s poverty rate fell from 35.97 percent in 1993-94 to 27.54 percent in 2004-05.
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