Inflation is a gradual loss of money’s purchasing power, and failing to foresee a change in inflation increases the risk that the realized return on an investment or the future value of an asset would be lower than projected.
What impact does inflation have on finance?
Most individuals are aware that inflation raises the cost of their food and depreciates the worth of their money. In reality, inflation impacts every aspect of the economy, and it can eat into your investment returns over time.
What is inflation?
Inflation is the gradual increase in the average cost of goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles data to construct the Consumer Price Index, measures it (CPI). The CPI measures the general rise in the price of consumer goods and services by tracking the cost of products such as fuel, food, clothing, and automobiles over time.
The cost of living, as measured by the CPI, increased by 7% in 2021.
1 This translates to a 7% year-over-year increase in prices. This means that a car that costs $20,000 in 2020 will cost $21,400 in 2021.
Inflation is heavily influenced by supply and demand. When demand for a good or service increases, and supply for that same good or service decreases, prices tend to rise. Many factors influence supply and demand on a national and worldwide level, including the cost of commodities and labor, income and goods taxes, and loan availability.
According to Rob Haworth, investment strategy director at U.S. Bank, “we’re currently seeing challenges in the supply chain of various items as a result of pandemic-related economic shutdowns.” This has resulted in pricing imbalances and increased prices. For example, due to a lack of microchips, the supply of new cars has decreased dramatically during the last year. As a result, demand for old cars is increasing. Both new and used car prices have risen as a result of these reasons.
Read a more in-depth study of the present economic environment’s impact on inflation from U.S. Bank investment strategists.
Indicators of rising inflation
There are three factors that can cause inflation, which is commonly referred to as reflation.
- Monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed), including interest rates. The Fed has pledged to maintain interest rates low for the time being. This may encourage low-cost borrowing, resulting in increased economic activity and demand for goods and services.
- Oil prices, in particular, have been rising. Oil demand is intimately linked to economic activity because it is required for the production and transportation of goods. Oil prices have climbed in recent months, owing to increased economic activity and demand, as well as tighter supply. Future oil price rises are anticipated to be moderated as producer supply recovers to meet expanding demand.
- Reduced reliance on imported goods and services is known as regionalization. The pursuit of the lowest-cost manufacturer has been the driving force behind the outsourcing of manufacturing during the last decade. As companies return to the United States, the cost of manufacturing, including commodities and labor, is expected to rise, resulting in inflation.
Future results will be influenced by the economic recovery and rising inflation across asset classes. Investors should think about how it might affect their investment strategies, says Haworth.
How can inflation affect investments?
When inflation rises, assets with fixed, long-term cash flows perform poorly because the purchasing value of those future cash payments decreases over time. Commodities and assets with changeable cash flows, such as property rental income, on the other hand, tend to fare better as inflation rises.
Even if you put your money in a savings account with a low interest rate, inflation can eat away at your savings.
In theory, your earnings should stay up with inflation while you’re working. Inflation reduces your purchasing power when you’re living off your savings, such as in retirement. In order to ensure that you have enough assets to endure throughout your retirement years, you must consider inflation into your retirement funds.
Fixed income instruments, such as bonds, treasuries, and CDs, are typically purchased by investors who want a steady stream of income in the form of interest payments. However, because most fixed income assets have the same interest rate until maturity, the buying power of interest payments decreases as inflation rises. As a result, as inflation rises, bond prices tend to fall.
The fact that most bonds pay fixed interest, or coupon payments, is one explanation. Inflation reduces the present value of a bond’s future fixed cash payments by eroding the buying power of its future (fixed) coupon income. Accelerating inflation is considerably more damaging to longer-term bonds, due to the cumulative effect of decreasing buying power for future cash flows.
Riskier high yield bonds often produce greater earnings, and hence have a larger buffer than their investment grade equivalents when inflation rises, says Haworth.
Stocks have outperformed inflation over the previous 30 years, according to a study conducted by the US Bank Asset Management Group.
2 Revenues and earnings should, in theory, increase at the same rate as inflation. This means your stock’s price should rise in lockstep with consumer and producer goods prices.
In the past 30 years, when inflation has accelerated, U.S. stocks have tended to climb in price, though the association has not been very strong.
Larger corporations have a stronger association with inflation than mid-sized corporations, while mid-sized corporations have a stronger relationship with inflation than smaller corporations. When inflation rose, foreign stocks in developed nations tended to fall in value, while developing market stocks had an even larger negative link.
In somewhat rising inflation conditions, larger U.S. corporate equities may bring some benefit, says Haworth. However, in more robust inflation settings, they are not the most successful investment tool.
According to a study conducted by the US Bank Asset Management Group, real assets such as commodities and real estate have a positive link with inflation.
Commodities have shown to be a dependable approach to hedge against rising inflation in the past. Inflation is calculated by following the prices of goods and services that frequently contain commodities, as well as products that are closely tied to commodities. Oil and other energy-related commodities have a particularly strong link to inflation (see above). When inflation accelerates, industrial and precious metals prices tend to rise as well.
Commodities, on the other hand, have significant disadvantages, argues Haworth. They are more volatile than other asset types, provide no income, and have historically underperformed stocks and bonds over longer periods of time.
As it comes to real estate, when the price of products and services rises, property owners can typically increase rent payments, which can lead to increased profits and investor payouts.
Is there a risk of inflation?
As the US economy rebounds from the blow of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation has soared. While long-term inflation expectations have been relatively consistent, short-term inflation expectations have caught up with actual inflation, indicating that high inflation may not be done yet. Prices rose as a result of supply chain interruptions and increased demand for particular products, albeit these factors are unlikely to have a long-term influence on inflation. Finally, the fiscal and monetary reactions, as well as the fiscal forecast, point to a longer period of high inflation risk. Some factors, such as international demand for US assets, may help to mitigate these dangers.
Overall, while greater inflation may be temporary, the change may take longer than anticipated. The concern is that families’, market participants’, and policymakers’ reactions to a prolonged period of high inflation would plant the seeds of even higher inflation in the future. Inflationary pressures that persist would put the Federal Reserve’s new monetary policy framework to the test.
In my next blog article, I’ll examine the assertion that the recent increase in inflation is primarily due to a small number of goods and services.
What impact does inflation have on financial decisions, such as the cost of goods and services?
Inflation is defined as an increase in the general level of prices that continues over time. In other words, our currency’s purchasing power is eroding. Expected inflation has an impact on both the needed return and the predicted cash flows of a project. Because interest rates are directly determined by inflation predictions, inflation has an impact on a company’s stock and bond values. As a result, knowing how to manage a company’s financial resources is vital, and it has a direct impact on financial decision-making.
Select “Purchasing Power of the Dollar, 1665 – Present” from the drop-down menu. Play around with different sums and years to observe how inflation has affected the cost of products and services.
Then, under “3 to 6 Month U.S. Commercial Paper Rates, 1831-1997,” select “3 to 6 Month U.S. Commercial Paper Rates.” See how much money a corporation would have to borrow in 1847. Consider the relationship between inflation and interest rates, and then try to answer the following inflation-related questions.
What amount of money has the same “purchasing power” now as $100 did in 1981?
This website will provide the following response if you enter the value $100 and the year 1981 and submit the query:
- How much money does it take to buy the same number of goods and services in the year 2000 as it did in the year you were born?
The goal of this exercise is to provide you with more information on how inflation affects your financial decisions. Keep in mind that, while we’ve just looked at US inflation rates, multinational companies confront varying inflation rates in each country where they do business. Inflationary or hyperinflationary conditions exist in several countries, making reasonable cash flow estimates nearly impossible. Inflation has an impact on every financial choice made within the company.
Inflation risk is a sort of risk.
Inflation risk, also known as purchasing power risk, is the possibility that inflation would reduce the real value of an investment’s cash flows.
Fixed-income assets plainly show the danger of inflation. If you buy a bond with a coupon rate of 3%, the nominal return on your investment will be this. However, if the inflation rate is 2%, your purchasing power will only increase by 1%.
Is financial stock inflation beneficial?
Consumers, stocks, and the economy may all suffer as a result of rising inflation. When inflation is high, value stocks perform better, and when inflation is low, growth stocks perform better. When inflation is high, stocks become more volatile.
What is the danger of inflation in investment?
Inflation risk refers to when the price of products and services rises faster than expected, or when the same amount of money has less purchasing power. Purchasing Power Risk is another name for inflation risk. Bond markets are one illustration of inflation risk.
What is inflation, and why is it important to include in financial planning?
Take out your wallet and pull out the PhP 50 bill. If you look at it closely, you’ll notice a sense of nostalgia. This bill is not the same as the one you had a decade ago. It definitely looks different, and the one you’re holding now isn’t worth the same as the PhP 50 you had back then, which was enough to get you a lunch at your favorite fast food joint.
Nowadays, your PhP 50 will only get you a little dinner, and how you wish you could travel back in time to when receiving PhP 50 from your parents was still exciting.
You may have figured out what causes the value of your money to depreciate. It’s a phenomenon known as inflation. Inflation, to refresh your mind, is the general increase in the prices of products and services over time, such as common foods, household goods, medical services, and transportation.
So, how does inflation affect your personal money, other from not allowing you to eat a lunch for PhP 50?
The rate of inflation fluctuates on a regular basis, and we rely on official data from the Philippine Statistics Authority, or Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, to establish how fast or slow it is. Between 1957 and 2011, the Philippines’ average inflation rate was 9.28 percent. 1
Let’s look at the cost of products and services in 2017 and 2018 to see how much inflation has affected your purchasing power. You’ll find that you have to pay much more for the identical stuff in only a year.
Assume a grocery bag including bread, fish, grains, meat, veggies, and fruits costing PhP 600 in 2017 costs PhP 631.2 in 2018. Similarly, if you paid PhP 500 in 2017 for water, electricity, and gas, the same services will cost PhP 526 in 2018. Other products, such as alcoholic beverages and tobacco, have witnessed comparable price increases. 2
When the cost of goods and services exceeds the amount of money you make, problems occur. Your purchasing power, or capacity to buy, decreases as a result. To keep up with the rising cost of living, inflation may require you to forego indulgences and “tighten your belt.” Small increases in spending can diminish your disposable income and, over time, erode the value of your savings.
Savings and investments do not always imply that your money is growing, particularly if the interest rate is lower than the rate of inflation. In fact, you could be squandering your hard-earned cash.
For example, if a business owner holds PhP 100,000 in a time deposit bank account earning 1% interest, the money will grow to PhP 101,000 the next year. If the inflation rate is 4.4 percent 3, the value of his/her money will only be PhP 96600the PhP 1,000 you acquired will not be enough to compensate for the PhP 4,400 worth lost due to inflation.
What is inflation, and why is it important to include in financial planning?
Inflation is a long-term pattern of rising prices across the economy from one year to the next. The rate of inflation is an essential economic topic because it shows the rate at which an investment’s real worth erodes and the loss of spending or purchasing power over time. Inflation also shows investors how much of a return on their assets they need to maintain their level of life (in percentage terms).
What impact does inflation have on mutual funds?
Use Bond Funds and ETFs that Outperform Inflation Because bond prices move in the opposite direction of interest rates, bonds can lose value as inflation rises. Inflation tends to raise interest rates. When inflation is rising, however, there are options to invest in bonds, bond funds, and ETFs.
What is the impact of inflation risk?
Consumer spending, company investment, and employment rates are all affected by inflation, as are government programs, tax policies, and interest rates. In order to invest successfully, you must first understand inflation. Inflation can diminish the value of your investment returns.