China’s bond market has grown to become the world’s second largest1 thanks primarily to domestic investors. As Chinese assets are more represented in prominent global benchmarks for stocks and bonds, the next stage of their development should see more diverse ownership and a greater alignment with international standards.
Income-seeking investors should examine China bonds to provide potential diversification benefits and increased robustness to a global portfolio in this low-for-longer interest rate environment. China bonds, on the other hand, have smaller correlations to global risk assets and offer greater yields with reduced volatility. This is particularly critical during periods of high market volatility.
Is it possible to purchase foreign government bonds?
You can buy bonds issued by other governments and firms in the same way that you can buy bonds issued by the US government and companies. International bonds are another approach to diversify your portfolio because interest rate movements range from country to country. You risk making decisions based on insufficient or erroneous information since information is generally less dependable and more difficult to obtain.
International and developing market bonds, like Treasuries, are structured similarly to US debt, with interest paid semiannually, whereas European bonds pay interest annually. Buying overseas and developing market bonds (detailed below) carries higher risks than buying US Treasuries, and the cost of buying and selling these bonds is often higher and requires the assistance of a broker.
International bonds subject you to a diverse set of dangers that vary by country. Sovereign risk refers to a country’s unique mix of risks as a whole. Sovereign risk encompasses a country’s political, cultural, environmental, and economic features. Unlike Treasuries, which have virtually no default risk, emerging market default risk is genuine, as the country’s sovereign risk (such as political instability) could lead to the country defaulting on its debt.
Furthermore, investing internationally puts you at risk of currency fluctuations. Simply put, this is the risk that a change in the exchange rate between the currency in which your bond is issued—say, euros—and the US dollar would cause your investment return to grow or decrease. Because an overseas bond trades and pays interest in the local currency, you will need to convert the cash you get into US dollars when you sell your bond or receive interest payments. Your profits grow when a foreign currency is strong compared to the US dollar because your international earnings convert into more US dollars. In contrast, if the foreign currency depreciates against the US dollar, your earnings would decrease since they will be translated into less dollars. Currency risk can have a significant impact. It has the ability to convert a gain in local currency into a loss in US dollars or a loss in local currency into a gain in US dollars.
Interest is paid on some international bonds, which are bought and sold in US dollars. These bonds, known as yankee bonds, are often issued by large international banks and receive investment-grade ratings in most cases. Indeed, credit rating agencies such as Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, which review and grade domestic bonds, also offer Country Credit Risk Ratings, which can be useful in determining the risk levels associated with international and emerging market government and corporate bonds.
What exactly are Chinese bonds?
The prolonged use of capital controls is incompatible with the goal of achieving reserve currency status in the long run, but we do not see a shift away from a controlled exchange rate in the near future.
Relative Value
Chinese bonds may have a greater yield than equivalent bonds issued in industrialized bond markets, but not when compared to the average emerging market. When compared to the average emerging market, this indicates the comparatively low volatility of both bond prices and currency.
Both the central bank and the State Council, which oversees China’s huge bureaucracy, have expressed support for a more moderate monetary policy. This, we feel, marks the start of a longer period of reduced interest rates, which might be beneficial to bonds.
However, in the medium and long run, China’s growth is anticipated to outstrip that of the United States and Europe, necessitating fundamentally higher Chinese interest rates to combat inflationary pressures. It should be noted, however, that China’s economic and interest rate cycles do not usually follow those of the United States and Europe. This explains why the US and European markets have such poor connection.
Chinese 10-year government bonds will pay out roughly 3.6 percent to investors, while 10-year policy bank bonds will pay out around 4.3 percent.
5 On 10-year sovereign paper issued by governments in developed markets, that’s an appealing yield increase.
What if China demanded payment on the US debt?
What Happens If China Pays Off Its Debt? Because China is the largest foreign holder of US debt, it has some political clout. It is the cause of low interest rates and low-cost consumer items. If Israel defaults on its debt, interest rates and prices in the United States could climb, limiting the country’s economic growth.
What if China stops purchasing US debt?
If China (or any other country with a trade surplus with the United States) stops buying Treasurys or even starts selling its US FX reserves, its trade surplus would turn into a trade deficit, which no export-oriented economy wants since it will be worse off.
Is it possible to purchase Chinese government bonds?
The scheme was partially launched in January, allowing foreign investors to purchase Chinese bonds; however, southbound trade for mainland investors to purchase offshore bonds has yet to start.
How can I go about purchasing foreign bonds directly?
Investors who have an account that allows international trading can buy foreign bonds in the same manner they buy US bonds. Their broker supplies clients with a list of available bonds, which they can purchase at market price. However, transaction costs may be greater, and the bond selection may be limited compared to domestic issues in the investment country. Buying dollar-denominated or U.S.-based foreign bonds is one option. A foreign corporation may occasionally issue a bond in the United States that is valued in dollars. These so-called “Yankee bonds” provide exposure to a foreign corporation while also allowing for the purchase of a dollar-based bond in the United States. Companies can also issue bonds that are valued in dollars but are not issued in the United States; these are known as Eurodollar bonds.
Is China the exclusive owner of the United States?
The United States’ wealth has primarily been founded on two pillars: low-cost land and high-cost labor. Until Ted Kennedy’s 1965 Immigration Act, Ronald Reagan’s 1986 Amnesty, and NAFTA opened the floodgates to Third World immigration (both legal and illegal), this formula remained mostly unchanged.
When there was a labor shortage, firms had little choice but to pay more rather than importing vast volumes of inexpensive labor from nations with few worker safeguards.
The same regulations that have allowed for a tremendous infusion of low-cost labor have also destabilized the American real estate market: more buyers means more demand, which means higher pricing for those trying to purchase a property.
There are a number of societal ramifications of this, the most important of which is that family formation is more expensive and hence less accessible for the ordinary young American worker in the twenty-first century than it was previously.
But there’s also the issue of permitting foreign nationals to own real estate in the United States, which is illegal in a number of countries. Where foreign nationals are permitted to own real estate, there are frequently limitations on where they can purchase and how much they can possess.
We don’t think it’s necessary to explain why, but we’ll do it anyway: First and foremost, a nation’s citizens have first claim to its territory. Second, allowing too much of a country’s land to fall into the hands of foreigners can be dangerous.
Foreign investors currently possess 30 million acres of farmland in the United States, accounting for 2.2 percent of all farmland in the country. To put that in perspective, that’s about the size of Mississippi or Pennsylvania. These are effectively absentee landlords who own some of America’s most valuable real estate.
China, on the other hand, held 191,000 acres worth $1.9 billion in 2019. Although this may not appear to be a significant amount, Chinese ownership of American agriculture has increased considerably in the previous decade. Indeed, in less than a decade, Chinese ownership of farmland in the United States has increased tenfold.
Foreign ownership of farmland is currently prohibited in six states: Hawaii, Iowa, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Dakota, and Oklahoma.
Massive Chinese farmland investment is concerning for one clear reason: it places the nation’s food security in the hands of a hostile foreign power. However, there is a social cost to permitting foreign purchasers with essentially unlimited resources to compete with smaller domestic buyers on the real estate market.
It’s understandable if no one in this room is crying for Big Aggie, but the true losers are the smaller landowners. For people concerned about environmental issues, consider if American farmers or Chinese bureaucrats thousands of kilometers away are more likely to conduct proper land stewardship.
How much of America does China own?
Ownership of US Debt is Broken Down China owns around $1.1 trillion in US debt, which is somewhat more than Japan. Whether you’re an American retiree or a Chinese bank, you should consider investing in American debt. The Chinese yuan is pegged to the US dollar, as are the currencies of many other countries.
Is it wise to invest in Chinese bonds?
“In fact, Chinese government bonds (CGBs) have recently outperformed some of the other government bonds. While everyone else is facing inflationary pressures, it may be a good opportunity to buy in CGBs if you have no exposure,” Chow added.